Technical Anakysis : 综合指数 2010年12月16日 / FMKLCI 16/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 16日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数跌破布林中频带的动态支持线，显示综指的走势有转弱的迹象，惟布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄14%，所以技术上综指仍然属于调整巩固中，直到布林频带明显的打开，才能确认转弱的趋势。

综指也同时跌破了1500点的心理支持水平，所以综指接下来的支持水平下调至1487点的费氏线，阻力水平则下调至1500点以及1525点。

图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下跌，不过马股成交量却增加13.96%，这显示综指虽然在投资者套利下走低，不过仍然有相当多的投资者选择买入，这使到成交量增加至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）。接下来若持续有买盘涌入的话，那综指有望短期内收复失地，避开进一步下跌。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）分别跌破了70%以及30%，这表示综指的短期走势转弱，接下来若随机指标未能迅速回弹至30%以上，综指的短期走势将有维持在短期下跌的格局。

与此同时，布林频带目前仍然保持一个收窄的格局，所以综指目前仍然算是调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带明显打开为止。无论如何，综指亦跌破了14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指继续在短期内回弹至EMA以上，那综指才能有望避开进入跌势的格局。

FBM KLCI 16 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell below the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediately technical outlook for the KLCI is now turning to negative. Fortunately, the Bollinger Bands is stil contracting (14%), and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating.

Meanwhile, the KLCI also fell below the 1500 mark by margin, and if the KLCI should failed to come back to above 1500, the next support is seen at 1487 while the resistance is at 1525.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.96%. Generally, the rising of volume during a decline is not a good sign, for it represents an increased of selling pressure. Therefore, if market volume should continue to increase while the KLCI is falling, it would further dampen the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 30%, entering the short term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should stay below 30%, the market movement for the short term is expected to be weak.

Immediate technical outlook turns to negative as the KLCI retreated sharply on Thursday. The KLCI fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA by margin, and if the KLCI should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend would come to an end.

HAPPY TRADING

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange >>> FKLI and FCPO

FKLI Down In Tandem With Cash & Regional Markets THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed mostly lower today, dealers said.

While December 2010 rose six points to 1,504, January 2011, March 2011 and June 2011 decreased 6.5 points each to 1,506,1,505 and 1,504 respectively. Turnover rose to 5,497 lots yesterday compared with 3,416 lots on Tuesday,
Open interest stood at 22,317 contracts from 23,741 contracts previously.

Profit Takings & Lower Data Sinks CPO
CPO succumbs to broad-based selling as investors continued to take money off the table following the previous day’s rally to the market’s highest levels in more than two years coupled with news of lower exports and lack of demand, dealers said.
Traders opted to book profits and square off positions ahead of the year-end holidays, following Tuesday's intraday rally.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR11 lower at MYR3,669 a metric ton, after a volatile trading session with prices swinging in a range of MYR3,609-MYR3,702.

ANALYST / DEALER QUOTES

"Output for the first 15 days in many parts of peninsular Malaysia has plummeted. That along with weather issue will be the catalyst for another rally in palm oil prices."

"The weaker export numbers were another factor that drove palm oil prices lower," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

"Any dip (in the palm oil market) would be an opportunity to buy."

Open interest on the BMD was 87,918 lots, versus 88,997 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 20,825 lots of CPO were traded versus 24,l80 lots Tuesday.

HAPPY TRADING

FKLI >>> 1500 Back Test; Tight Range Expectations

FKLI Bears May Infiltrate Dozing Bulls Camp

Be wary of FKLI Traders Selling Into Strength.

The Dow made 47 points last night >>> BIG DEAL? It had been doing that for past few nights and where is our FKLI bulls?

ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz hahahaha!!!

FKLI Recommendations

SELL INTO STRENGTH / WEAKNESS

Keywatch >>> The EMA 4/9/18 are near total collapse

Monitor the last EMA 18 for a market U-turn confirmation

The Dow had been giving selldown performances repeatdly.

No surprises if our FKLI does an encore of it's own before curtains

HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET >>> US Treasuries Decision Bolster Stocks

Fed Day Rally Fizzles;
Major Indexes Still Hit 2 - Year High
The Dow landed at its highest level since September 2008 on Tuesday, but an early rally faded as the Fed’s policy meeting proved to be a nonevent and Treasury yields hit seven-month highs.
If standing pat were a sporting event, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would be poised for Olympic gold. Once again this month, the policy-setting group opted to maintain interest rates at their current record lows, between 0% and 0.25%. Additionally, the FOMC kept the size of its bond-buying program unchanged at $600 billion. The central bankers appear to have a tunnel-vision focus on the jobs market, as evidenced by the opening remark of today's statement: "The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment." The major market indexes had notched some solid intraday gains ahead of the Fed's afternoon announcement, thanks to respectable retail sales data, but stocks staggered back toward breakeven in the FOMC aftermath.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,476.54) tacked on about 48 points, or 0.4%, after earlier touching a 27-month peak of 11,514.08. Nineteen of the Dow's 30 components ended higher, led by AT&T (T) and Kraft Foods (KFT). Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) set the tone for the 10 declining Dow members, while McDonald's (MCD) split the difference by finishing flat. Today's close marks the blue chip barometer's highest daily finish since Sept. 8, 2008.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,241.59) briefly fell into the red in afternoon trading, but recovered to close on a slim gain of 1.1 points, or 0.09%. Today was the SPX's best daily close since Sept. 19, 2008. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,627.72) bounced back from its own trip below the breakeven line, ending the day up 2.8 points, or 0.1%. Unlike its peers, though, the COMP failed to set a fresh two-year closing high, falling short of Friday's finish at 2,637.54.
The late-day selloff from session highs, Wall Street’s second in as many days, erased much of an 86-point rally on the Dow that had been fueled by stronger-than-expected November retail sales.

ANALYST QUOTE :
“The market was due for a pause and people are using the [quiet Fed meeting] to take some chips off the table. The risk-off trade has been gaining some momentum.”

The selling coincided with a slide in the bond market in the wake of the Federal Reserve deciding to keep interest rates at their historically low levels, as expected. The yield on the 10-year note settled near its highest level since May.

ANALYST QUOTE :
“For the first time in this whole multi year experiment on the part of the Fed, the bond market has taken over and has pushed back against the Fed's goal and desire of keeping interest rates low.”

Wall Street mostly yawned at the Fed's policy statement, which showed the central bank voted 10-1 to leave interest rates at their ultralow level. The central bank also didn't announce any changes to its controversial $600 billion quantitative easing plan, which is aimed at boosting the economy and avoiding a deflationary spiral by lowering interest rates.

The recovery is continuing, "though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment", the Fed said in its statement.

Yet the Fed's inability to keep interest rates from rising was on display immediately after the meeting ended, with the yield on Treasurys hitting seven-month highs. The selloff in the bond market is partly a reflection of increased optimism about the economic recovery. However, it is also likely to have a dampening effect on the fragile economy by increasing borrowing costs for companies and individuals.

Still, the Dow closed at its highest level since September 3, 2010, joining its peers by making fresh 2010 highs.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> DJIA 15 Dec 2010
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are still possible. If the Dow extends this year's rally, the August 2008 high crossing at 11,867 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,238 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 11,514. Second resistance is the August 2008 high crossing at 11,867. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,379. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,238.
HAPPY TRADING

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月14日 / FBMKLCI 14/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 14日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数稍微上扬0.79点，以1510.58点闭市，基本上综指是属于横摆巩固的格局，综指当前的阻力水平仍然是1525点及1532点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1500点的心理支持关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）再度收窄1%，这反复的稍微打开及收窄显示布林频带目前变化不大，通常这是综指横摆巩固所致。以技术而言，若布林频带出现收窄时，这将是综指酝酿新趋势的讯号，而综指将倾向于横摆巩固，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微增加1.26%，所以成交量仍然略微低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示马股整体市场仍然未达到活跃的水平；一般上，当综指开始摆脱横摆巩固并开始上扬时，若成交量届时才达到40天平均值并不算太迟。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然保持在70%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势目前仍然略偏向上扬，惟布林频带目前仍然保持收窄的格局，所以综指上扬的趋势并未获得确认。

无论如何，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的水平，综指的短期上扬的趋势将宣告结束，直到随机指标再度返回70%为止。另一方面，综指当前仍然分别获得布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的支持，所以综指的走势并未有转弱的趋势；换句话说，若综指接下来跌破这些动态支持线，综指的整体走势将会有转弱的风险。

FBM KLCI 14 Dec 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rose 0.79 of a point to close at 1510.58 points. Basically, the KLCI is consolidating and the immediate resistance is seen at 1525 to 1532, while the support is at 1500 mark.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, and this suggests a consolidation signal for the KLCI.

Technically, when the Bollinger Bands is contracting, it means that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.26%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. In other words, total market participation is still relatively low, and the market sentiment is less likely to sustain if volume should stay low.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is bullish biased.

In conclusion, the overall KLCI uptrend remains intact as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that the KLCI would test the 1532 resistance. Other wise, if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the short term bullish movement of the KLCI would be affected.

HAPPY TRADING