BURSA MALAYSIA >>> Stocks Close Firmer

Blues Lift KL Shares; Volume Below 40 Days Average

Of the 30 components of KLCI, 23 closed in the positive territory, four ended lower while the remaining three were unchanged. Volume for the component stock was 91 million shares worth RM573 million.
Higher By The Points; Lower On The Biz Done
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia closed higher Monday, in line with the positive leads from Wall Street over the weekend and the regional bourses, but on lower volume.

The FBM KLCI rose 8.77 points or 0.70% to 1,266.44 points, slightly below the day’s highest level of 1,267.09 points. It opened 2.84 points firmer at the day lowest level of 1,260.51 points. Trading band was 6.58 points.

Market breadth was positive with gainers beating losers 469 to 196. Volume however contracted to 600 million shares valued at RM1,024 million from 623 million shares worth RM1,159 million last Friday.

Of the heavyweights, Sime Darby added six sen to RM8.58, Maybank rose seven sen to RM6.96, CIMB Group gained four sen to RM12.60 and Maxis increased three sen to RM5.40.Public Bank and Petronas Dagangan were up 10 sen each at RM11.20 and RM8.68 respectively while Tanjong PLC jumped 14 sen to RM17.80.
Actively traded stocks include MAS-OR, FRONTKN-OR, KNM, MMM, MAYBANK, FASTRAK, AXIATA, GENTING, AFFIN-WC and YTL POWER.
The Finance Index rose 80.22 points to 11,082.16, the Industrial Index went up 18.1 points to 2,619.11 and the Plantation Index was 34.12 points firmer at 6,311.23.The FBM Emas Index jumped 65.92 points to 8,519.79, the FBM70 gained 73.6 points to 8,337.86 and the FBM Ace Index increased 25.57 points to 4,352.85.
Consumer products accounted for 23.21 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 113.01 million, construction 19.55 million, trade and services 234.01 million, technology 10.96 million, infrastructure 11.82 million, finance 54.59 million, hotels 5.38 million, properties 34.29 million, plantations 12.31 million, mining 49,000, REITs 688,700 and closed/fund 45,500.

U.S. Dollar Index and Crude Oil >>> Charts and Commentaries

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback in one composite index.

See on the weekly continuation chart for nearby U.S. dollar index futures that prices have been trending higher since the late-November 2009 low. Prices recently hit a fresh six-month high.

See, too, at the bottom of the weekly dollar index chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture, as the thick blue MACD line is above the thin red "trigger" line, and both lines are trending higher.

The MACD lines are also in the same posture as they were in Q3 of 2008 -- just after which time the U.S. dollar index trended strongly higher.

Daily Overview : The March Dollar extended this month's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 79.71.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83.

Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32.

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70.

Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.61.

The U.S. Dollar was being last traded at 81.035 (+0.560) at time of writing

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Crude Oil

The uptrend on the weekly continuation chart for nearby crude-oil futures has recently "rolled over" into a choppy and sideways trading range.

It's likely that in the coming weeks, crude oil will continue to trade in a choppy and sideways fashion, between solid overhead longer term, technical resistance at the January high of $83.95 a barrel and the December 2009 low of $68.59, basis nearby futures.

The direction in which nearby-crude oil futures "break out" of the trading range bound by the aforementioned support and resistance levels on the weekly chart is very likely to be the direction of the next significant longer-term price trend in the market.

Daily Overview: March crude oil closed higher and above the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 78.75 as it extended the rally off this month's low. Today's rally was supported by reported outages at Buzzard oil field.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.11.

Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72.

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.83.

Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72.

Crude Oil March Futures was being last traded at 79.06 (+1.73) at time of writing

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 02月 18日 / Composite Index 18/02/2010

综合指数 2010年 02月 18日
如图中箭头A所示，综指周四再次的试探14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态阻力线，惟继续在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻，综指微跌0.07点。这表示14、21、31天的EMA依然是综指下跌的动态阻力线，所以综指还未完全摆脱跌势。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）还未打开，这表示综指目前依然处于盘整格局中。无论如何，综指阻力水平依然是1272点的费氏线及14、21、31天的EMA，支持水平则是1250 的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量虽然增加9.9%，但却依然低于40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示当前市场的交投仍然属于低迷。换句话说，市场还是缺乏足够的买盘来吸纳套利的卖压，所以若总成交量继续处于40天的平均值以下，那综指暂时还是难以转强。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续维持在70%水平以上，这是综指短期强势区域。不过，由于综指依然在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻，再加上布林频带还未打开，所以随机指标短期转强的讯号还未获得确认。

总的来说，综指自上周在1224点反弹以来，至今一共上扬34点，同时综指精确的在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻，所以综指有下调的迹象。接下来若综指开始下跌而失守布林中频带及1250点的费氏线，那综指将有恢复跌势的风险。

Composite Index 18/02/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA on Thursday, and precisely resisted by the 14, 21, 3 EMA, which is serving as the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, and the KLCI loss 0.07 of a point.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands did not expand, suggesting that the KLCI is still in a consolidating stage. Nonetheless, resistance for the KLCI remains at 1272 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1250 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 9.9%, but remains further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still relatively very quiet, thus the buying interests is still low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pickup any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, in the short term bullish territory. However, due to the resistance at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, coupled with the Bollinger Bands not expanding, the significance of the Stochastic is reduced.

In conclusion, the KLCI has gained 34 points even since its rebound from the 1224 level. With the KLCI currently resisted by the dynamic resistance, of the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the KLCI is expected to pullback slightly. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should start falling, and breaks below the 1250 level or the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook would turn bearish.

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures >>> FCPO Market Overview

CPO Closed Lower, Crucial Support Level 2600
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange weakened Thursday to close at a key support level as declines in crude oil and soyoil futures weighed on sentiment, trade participants said.

Still, traders said a sustained break below the immediate support isn’t likely this week as market participants are reluctant to make big bets with many investors sidelined during the week-long holiday in China.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR28 lower at MYR2,600 a metric ton, a crucial psychological support level, after trading in a narrow range of MYR2,600-MYR2,617.

The Chinese are the biggest buyers of CPO, and with Chinese markets still closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations, trade was sluggish and investors looked more to external cues rather than to generally supportive supply-demand fundamentals.

As crude oil and soyoil futures headed lower during Asian trading hours, CPO prices followed suit.

Towards the end of trade on the BMD, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down $0.79 at $75.48 a barrel.

March soyoil futures on the electronic Chicago Board of Trade were down 15 points at 38.60 cents a pound.

“Apart from thin trade resulting in prices not moving all that much, CPO prices didn’t breach the MYR2,600 support as bullish local fundamentals such as falling production mean supply might be affected in the near future,” said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Traders estimate production is likely to fall by around 10% in February and even more in March.

“Many participants are waiting for the Chinese to return to the market before making any moves. Perhaps by next week we’ll have a better picture of where CPO price levels should be, but there’s a strong likelihood the support level of MYR2,600 will hold this week,” another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $800/ton, a Singapore-based trader said.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,630/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 81,347 lots Thursday, up from 79,210 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Some 9,967 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,161 lots Wednesday.

FBM KLCI Futures >>> FKLI Market Overview

FKLI All Months Discounts Widening Versus Underlying Cash

All FBM KLCI Futures contracts ended lower Thursday and closed at widened discounts ranging from 4.5 to 20.5 points to the underlying.

The February contract lost 3.5 points to 1,254.5 points, expanding its discount of 1.57 points to the underlying Wednesday to 4.50 points. The contract opened 1.0 point weaker at 1,257.0 points and traded between 1,251.0 and 1,258.0 points during the day.

The March contract closed 7.0 points lower at 1,248.5 points, representing a discount of 10.50 points to the cash market against a discount of 5.57 points a day earlier. It opened 1.0 point lower at 1,254.0 points and traded between 1,248.0 and 1,255.0 during the day.

The June contract fell 7.5 points to 1,244.0 points, which is a discount of 15.00 points to the underlying, while the September contract closed 7.0 points weaker at 1,238.5 points, representing a discount of 20.50 points to the underlying.