Weekly Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 12/08/2011 每周技术分析 : 2010年8月12日

Weekly Analysis FBMKLCI 12/08/2011

For the week ended on the 12^th of August, 2011, the KLCI fell a total of 40.76 points or 2.67% with its weekly high of 1515.19 point and the weekly low of 1423.47 points. Total market volume was 7,776,343,300 shares, up 29.17%.

Main Chart:

The negative performance of the regional markets continue to lead the KLCI, and on Tuesday, the KLCI had its intraday low touching 1423.47 points, but started to rebound as it was seriously over-sold. Support for the KLCI is now at 1474~1480 while the resistance is at 1500.

Bollinger Bands:

Despite the over-sold condition on Tuesday which leads to a pullback effect, the KLCI remains below the Bollinger middle band, and this suggests that the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. Meanwhile, as of Friday, the Bollinger Bands contracted, and this suggests that the KLCI might be consolidating

Volume:
As indicated by B, total market volume were above the 40-day volume moving average. Theoretically, when volume is above the 40-day volume moving average, it suggests that the market sentiment is likely to improve. However, due to the technical rebound mood for the KLCI after its over-sold condition, the higher volume is likely to imply that these are short term play or profit taking activities, rather than suggesting an improvement of market confidence.

MACD:

With the MACD line staying below the zero level, the mid to long term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weak. On Friday, the MACD histogram started to tick up, and it might be forming a Rounding Bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, it suggests that the KLCI short term could be picking up some strength.

WinChart RSI:
No much changes in the WinChart RSI, as it is still situated below 30%, in the mid term bearish territory.

Stochastic:

As indicated by C, although the Stochastic has broken above 30%, breaking away from the short term bearish territory, it has not shown any strength for the short term movement. Technically, the Stochastic would have to break above 70%, in order to suggest any short term bullish signal.

In Conclusion:

The KLCI is likely to consolidate, or have some sort of technical rebound. However, as long as the KLCI should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI should remains bearish biased.

每周技术分析 : 2010年8月12日

富时综合指数上周以1515.19点开市，综指随后下跌至1423.47点的全周最低水平，综指随后回弹至1483.67点，按周下跌40.76点或2.67%，全周总成交量为77亿7634万3300股，按周增加29.17%。

主要指标－图形

综指再次跟随国际指数下跌，使到综指上周一度下挫至1423.47的最低水平，随后综指大力回弹，使到综指出现一道长的下影线。无论如何，综指上周仍然未能突破1489.79 点的费氏线以及1500点的心理阻力关口，所以这两道水平成为综指接下来的阻力水平，支持水平则是1480点及1464.44点的费氏线（参考箭头A）。

布林频带

综指上周剧烈的下跌使到综指分别跌破了10天以及20天的布林频带（Bollinger Band），这引发了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）对综指发出的拉回效应，所以综指出现技术回弹。无论如何，布林中频带将成为综指的动态阻力线，换句话说，若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话，综指走势仍然是属于趋软的。

技术指标

成交量

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周维持在40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这偏高的成交量是因为在投资者惊慌抛售的同时，另一部份乐观的投资者，毅然冒险进场扯购，进行短线交易。

平均乖离

平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周五稍微上扬，这显示振荡指标有形成圆底的迹象。接下来若振荡指标继续上扬，那综指的短期走势将有望摆脱下跌，形成技术反弹。

胜图强弱指标

胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）上周仍然维持在30%以下，这表示综指的中期走势仍然是处于下跌的格局中，直到胜图强弱指标能上扬突破30%为止。

随机指标

随机指标（Stochastic）上周上扬突破30%的水平，这表示综指的多次的短期超卖后出现技术反弹的走势，无论如何，随机指标必须上扬突破70%的水平，这才算是综指短期走势成功进入上扬的格局。

总结

综指已跌破200天MA这重要的长期支持线，这意味着综指的长期走势正步入下跌的熊市格局，除非综指短期内上扬突破200天MA或形成横摆巩固的格局。以技术而言，若综指持续在14、21、31天加权移动平均线遇阻，那综指的后市将继续看低一线。

祝你好运

Wall Street Caps Dizzying Week With a 126-Point Rally

Dow In 1.5% Deficit For Volatile Week
U.S. stocks ended a dizzy week on a high note today, as Wall Street viewed the latest round of economic reports with rose-colored glasses. Specifically, investors celebrated encouraging data from the Commerce Department, which said seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped 0.5% in July -- the biggest monthly advance since April. The upbeat figures helped to overshadow a steep drop in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index -- which fell to a 31-year nadir in August -- and aided the bulls to their second straight victory. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added more than 125 points -- though even a triple-digit jump looked relatively modest against the backdrop of one of the most volatile weeks in years.

ANALYSTS' QUOTES
"There is no question the sharp selloff in asset markets around the world over the past few weeks, on top of an already fragile economic picture, had a major influence on today's reading."

"The consumer is at the center of the weak economy debate ... and as such, even a modestly better-than-expected number today provides us with some level of relief."

“It’s true the market is off its meds for the moment, but it’s still highly susceptible to headline news.”

“You’ve got some extremely confused investors out there."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,269.02) ended with a gain of 125.7 points, or 1.1%, as all but nine of its 30 components finished higher. Leading the bullish majority was Boeing's (BA) 4.9% jump, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) paced the laggards with a 2.1% retreat. After two straight days in the black, the Dow pared its weekly deficit to 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,178.81) advanced 6.2 points, or 0.5%, but still gave up 1.7% since last Friday. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,507.98) gained 15.3 points, or 0.6%, to end north of the 2,500 level for the first time in a week. What's more, the tech-rich COMP fared the best for the week, trimming its losses to about 1%. 

HAPPY WEEKEND

Wall Street's Mood Swings Manic; Dow Jumps 423 Points

The SPX and COMP recovered 4.6% and 4.7%, respectively
Extending Wall Street's bipolar price action of late, U.S. stocks reversed Wednesday's trajectory to take a manic turn today. Along with a well-received earnings report from Cisco Systems (CSCO), the bulls celebrated a drop in initial jobless claims, which fell beneath the closely watched 400,000 marker for the first time in months. By the time the dust settled, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added more than 420 points, or nearly 4%, marking its fourth straight absolute move of 3.5% or more -- a feat not accomplished since November 2008, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. What's more, should the blue-chip barometer extend its see-saw momentum tomorrow, a similarly significant move in either direction would tie the record set in October 1987.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,143.31) recovered most of Wednesday's losses, adding 423.4 points, or nearly 4%, to reclaim the 11,000 level. For the second time this week, all 30 of the Dow's blue chips finished higher, led by CSCO's near-16% gain. In fact, all of the index's components have ended in unison each day this week.

 Similarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,172.64) reversed yesterday's deficit -- almost exactly -- advancing 51.9 points, or 4.6%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,492.68) fared the best of the three, thanks to earnings-related optimism in the tech sector. Specifically, the COMP gained 111.6 points, or 4.7%, after running into a wall near the 2,500 level.

HAPPY TRADING

Economic Malaise Incite Violent Selling; Dow Plummets 519.83 Points

Bears set off another bloodbath; DJIA lose 4.62%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) nullified Tuesday's gains today, as revived concerns about the fiscal fate of Europe kept the major market indexes swimming in red ink. With Uncle Sam's notorious credit-rating downgrade still fresh on traders' collective mind, the threat of a similar downgrade for France only reopened Wall Street's proverbial wounds. Meanwhile, an unimpressive earnings showing from Walt Disney (DIS) fueled the bearish fire, with the Dow logging its fourth triple-digit drop since the start of the month. On the flip side, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 42.99) skyrocketed 22.6%, while a massive flight to safety sent gold futures north of $1,800 an ounce for the first time ever.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,719.94) extended its slide in the final hour of trading, surrendering 519.8 points, or 4.6%, by the close. Furthermore, the index gave up its foothold atop the 11,000 level, as not one of its 30 blue chips bucked the trend. Leading the pack was Bank of America (BAC), which gave up 10.9% by the time the dust settled.

Similarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,120.76) finished at a session low, backpedaling 51.8 points, or 4.4%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,381.05) also settled at an intraday nadir, swallowing a loss of 101.5 points, or 4.1%.

HAPPY INVESTING

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 08月 10日

综合指数 2011年 08月 10日

富时大马综合指数（综指）在过去数日连续大幅度下挫后，导致短期超卖（Short-Term Over Sold）的现象，而在周三开始出现技术性的反弹，综指回弹8.38点以1480.52点挂收，请参考图中箭头A。由于综指在前几日连续跌破几个重要支持水平（包括1540点跳空跌破及1500心理整数水平）因此1500点的水平将是综指当前的阻力水平。

另一方面，综指虽然在周二一度跌破1474点的水平（是综指之前在2011年一路来的最低水平），但如今综指成功回弹之1474点水平以上，那综指当前的支持水平就暂时处于1474～1480点的水平。根据费氏线（Fibonacci）的理论，以综指2009年最低点836点及2011年最高峰1597点的计算，综指当前23.6%回归水平落在1417点左右。若综指日后跌破此支持水平，那下一道长期的费氏水平将会落在1300点（38.2%回归线）的水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量继续维持在40天的成交量平均线以上，这表示马股当前的交投是活跃的。不过，由于综指涨势已经受到破坏，而在严重超卖的状况下，难免会出现短期“抓反弹”的投机活动，因此当前活跃的成交量未能真正反映出投资信心恢复的现象，而是短期交易及套利活动所致。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回弹，暂时摆脱了短期弱势格局。不过，以技术而言，随机指标必须上扬突破70%水平，届时才是综指短期转强的讯号。

总的来说，综指当前虽然有技术反弹的可能，但是技术展望仍然是偏弱的。这是因为综指当前依然处于14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average - EMA）的动态阻力线以下。

祝你好运