TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 03/03/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 03月 03日

Composite Index 03/03/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI retreated after testing the 1288.66 Fibonacci Retracement.

Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI remains at 1288.66 Fibonacci Retracement, while the support is at 1276.38 and 1266.45 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 1%, suggesting that the upside movement of the KLCI is being capped. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI, thus the immediate technical outlook is still positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.9%, but failed to reach the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market participation as a whole is still insufficient, as investors confidence is still relatively low.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is falling gradually, suggesting that the KLCI short term is losing some strength. However, since the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, the short term bullish signal remains intact.

In conclusion, with the KLCI resisted by the 1288.66 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and the insufficient market participation, the KLCI is due for a consolidation or a correction. And if the KLCI should remains supported by the Bollinger Middle Band after the possible correction, there is still a good chance that the KLCI would resume its uptrend.

综合指数 2010年 03月 03日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数再度上探1288.66点的费氏阻力线，无论如何，综指还是未能上扬突破1288.66点的阻力，综指随后回软，按日下滑1.97点，以1286.10点闭市。综指当前的阻力水平依然维持在1288.66点的费氏线，支持水平则是1276.38点及1266.45点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减低至1%，这显示综指的涨势受到阻扰，若布林频带接下来出现收窄的话，那综指将有出现技术调整的可能，届时布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将成为综指的动态支持线，一般上，只要综指能继续维持在布林中频带的话，那综指只是出现技术调整而已。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量稍微增加2.9%，所以成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示综指仍然缺乏足够的交投量，所以综指的涨势后继不足。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）缓缓下滑，这表示综指的短期走势停止上扬，不过只要随机指标一日不跌破70%，那综指的短期涨势仍然未被破坏。

总的来说，综指的短期走势二度在1288.66点的费氏线遇阻，再加上成交量低于40天的平均值，所以综指有出现技术调整的迹象。接下来若布林频带开始收窄，那综指将被确认出现技术调整，届时布林中频带将是综指重要的支持线，若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指的后市将看低一线。

Harga kontrak CPO melemah jadi MYR2612 / US$771

Harga kontrak CPO di Malaysia menurun, sehingga mengurangi minat mengunakan komoditas itu untuk biodiesel. Harga kontrak CPO untuk Mac 10 melemah 0.68% ke 2,612 ringgit atau US$771 per metrik ton di Malaysia Derivative Exchange.

Kontrak minyak untuk pengiriman April turun 0,2% ke posisi US$78,54 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange.Analis memperkirakan persediaan minyak mentah AS naik dalam 5 pekan, sehingga mengindikasikan penurunan permintaan di negara pengguna energi terbesar.

Donny Khor, Senior President for Futures & Options di OSK Investment Bank Bhd, mengatakan perusahaan pengelola dana melihat harga minyak sebagai ukuran untuk menentikan apakah masuk akal menggunakan biodiesel lebih banyak dari CPO.

Harga kontrak minyak kedelai untuk pengiriman Mei, yang bersaing dengan CPO untuk kebutuhan minyak makan dan biodiesel, juga melemah 0,2% ke US$3,98 sen per pound. Menurut laporan riset dari Fortis Bank Nederland/VM Group, isu lingkungan juga sedang membayangi prospek permintaan CPO.

Dalam jangka menengah, pertumbuhan permintaan, khususnya di negara yang ekonominya lebih maju, akan meningkat, terkait erat dengan pemanfaatan CPO sebagai bahan bakar.

BT Crude Oil and Gold Futures Report >>> Market Overview

Crude futures bounced higher today, boosted by a down day for the U.S. dollar. Traders also priced in some optimism about the global economy, with the Greek government expected to announce new austerity measures in order to secure financial support from the broader European Union. Ongoing refinery issues provided an additional bullish catalyst, with Chile's two major refineries still down for the count following this weekend's devastating 8.8-magnitude earthquake. Crude oil for April delivery ended on a gain of 98 cents, or 1.3%, at $79.68 per barrel.

Gold futures also capitalized on weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the front-month contract touching its highest price since Jan. 20. The greenback lost ground versus the euro today, as traders increasingly anticipated an aid package for cash-strapped Greece -- and dollar-denominated commodities were the immediate beneficiaries. With risk appetites on the rise, gold for April delivery tapped an intraday peak of $1,138.30 an ounce. By the close, the precious metal was sitting on a healthy advance of $19.10, or 1.7%, at $1,136.90 per ounce.

TIME - OUT >>> Dow Eked Out A Slim 0.02% Victory

Essentially Unchanged Amid Low Trading Volume

The Dow had its third straight winning day on signs that companies are becoming more optimistic about the economy. The benchmark index edged up 2.19 points Tuesday but closed off its best levels.

The Dow had managed to erase its losses for the year during trading but was down 22 points for 2010 by the close. Broader indexes pushed into the black for the year on Monday and extended the gains Tuesday.

Major stock indexes stand at their highest levels in more than a month but the gains have come in light trading volume. That indicates many investors are staying out of the market as they await more evidence about the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,405.98) managed to edge 2.2 points higher by the close, rebounding from an eleventh-hour trip into the red. DuPont and General Electric epitomized the day's yawn-worthy trading by finishing flat, while 17 other blue chips trekked higher. Walt Disney paced the gainers, while Microsoft and Bank of America blazed a trail lower for the 11 decliners. Despite the day's minimal price action, the Dow did notch its second consecutive daily close north of 10,400 -- a technical feat not accomplished since mid-January.

After spending the morning and earlier afternoon in positive territory, steady selling pressure kicked in for the final two hours. The Dow rebounded from a small loss and closed with a gain of a little more than 2 points.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,118.31) wrapped up the day on a gain of 2.6 points, or 0.2%, after briefly testing the waters north of the 1,120 level.

Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,280.79) rounded out the session by tacking on a relatively robust 7.2 points, or 0.3%.

Levels to Watch in Trading:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,405.98) - support at 9,000; resistance at 11,000

S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,118.31) - support at 950; resistance at 1,300

Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,280.79) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,600

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> Market Overview

Please click on images to ENLARGE

Despite the broader market closing lower, the benchmark index settled higher for the fourth straight day Tuesday on lower volume.The FBM KLCI added 4.67 points or 0.36% to 1,288.07 points. It opened 3.00 points higher at 1,286.40 points and traded between 1,285.96 and 1,292.81 points during the day, representing a trading band of 6.85 points.Market breadth was however negative with losers leading gainers 405 to 323 on a lower volume of 839 million shares valued at RM1,550 million against 1,052 million shares worth RM1,747 million Monday.
The Finance Index rose 80.22 to 11341.58 points, the Properties Index fell 3.34 to 778.17 points and the Plantation Index increased 34.13 to 6389.43points.

Dealers said the overall market was cautious, as investors sentiment remained fragile, amid potential volatility in global stock markets. Maybank Investment Bank Equity Research said the FBM KLCI may revisit the 1,300 points and 1,308 points levels.

The CI last hit the 1,300 points on January 19, and went on to see 1,308.36 on January 21 this year.

"However, the FBM KLCI may still remain volatile. We believe clients should adopt a short-term trading approach as global markets are still not steady," a report released by the research house said.

Actively traded stocks include AXIATA, MULPHA-OR, TALAM, RAMUNIA, CIMB, GENTING, KNM, YTLPOWER, MAYBANK and IOI.

Top Gainers were HAIO (+46 sen to RM10.50), KLK (+34 sen to RM17.00), TANJONG (+30 sen to RM17.96), RALCO (+26.5 sen to RM0.95) and CIMB (+26 sen to RM13.72).

Top Losers were LOH&LOH (-36 sen to RM4.60), APM (-22 sen to RM3.78), KASSETS (-17 sen to RM2.82), LDAUN (-16 sen to RM0.53) and LIIHEN (-16 sen to RM1.08).