On Thursday, the FBMKLCI was mostly traded in a narrow range, with the exception of a rally after 4pm, which pushed the FBMKLCI up to 1650.85 points. However, at the close, the FBMKLCI only managed to secure a gain of 0.53 of a point, closing at 1646.11 points. Resistance for the FBMKLCI remains at 1655 while the support is the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as indicated by A.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8.9%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. But due to the strong profit taking activities, losers outnumbered gainers by 453 to 280, the higher volume may actually imply stronger selling pressure.
As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling, suggesting that the short-term movement of the FBMKLCI is still losing strength. The weakening short-term movement is expected to continue until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom.
In conclusion, the FBMKLCI is still consolidating, while testing its dynamic support of the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Technically, the uptrend is still intact, but if profit is still strong, it would have a negative impact to the sustainability of the uptrend.
富时大马综合指数 2012-08-30
富时大马综合指数周四都在窄幅中波动,惟在下午四时后一度上扬至1650.85点的全日最高。不过,综指最后还是只能以1646.11点挂收,按日微扬0.53点。综指阻力依然是1655点的水平。支持水平则是如图中箭头A所示的14、21、31天EMA动态支持线。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周四增加8.94%,而成交量也继续维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)的水平以上。不过,由于马股套利活动非常的活跃,全日下跌股项远远超过上升股项(453跌/280涨),因此成交量的增加也反映出投资者踊跃套利的活动。
如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续的下滑,这表示综指短期的走势还是稍微偏弱的,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。
总的来说,综指继续在盘整格局中,同时试探14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线。以技术而言,综指涨势虽然还未受到破坏,但是市场的套利活动还是相当的活跃。若套利活动继续偏高的话,那将会对马股维持在涨势带来威胁。
祝你好运