Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 31/10/2011 综合指数 2011年 10月 31日

FBM KLCI 31/10/2011
On Monday, the FBM KLCI had its intraday low reaching 1475.71 points, but started to pick up some strength again in the afternoon session, and at the end of the trading day, gaining 10.07 points or 0.68%, to close at 1491.89 points. Despite breaking above 1487 resistance, the break out is yet to be confirmed, as the break out was not supported by strong volume. Support for the FBM KLCI remains at 1453 followed by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

 As indicated by B, total market volume fell 29.07%, but still above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is still activity participated, but the retreat of volume has failed to confirm the breakout of the KLCI above its resistance.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive.

In conclusion, the short-term uptrend of the KLCI remains intact, and with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the FBM KLCI is positive.

综合指数 2011年 10月 31日

富时大马综合指数（综指）一度回调下滑至1475.71点的全日最低，惟在午盘时因重量级蓝筹股项的带动之下回弹，并以1491.89点挂收，按日上扬10.07点或0.68%。如图中箭头A所示，虽然综指稍微突破1487点的费氏线，但此突破的讯号有待进一步的确认。这是因为马股周一的成交量明显的减退。无论如何，综指支持水平依然是1453点的费氏线及14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周一减少29.07%，不过依然能处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示马股整体上的交投还是属于活跃的。由于成交量明显的减少，因此未能确认综指突破阻力水平的讯号。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续维持在70%水平以上的短期强势区域里，这表示综指短期的走势截至目前为止仍然是偏强的。

总的来说，尽管马股总成交量的减少，但是综指目前的短期涨势依然是完整的。以技术而言，只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持，那综指当前的技术展望仍然是处于正面的。

祝你好运

FBMKLCI Weekly Technical Outlook 31 Oct 2011

The Week Ahead

The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI reissued a buy signal at the overbought zone

early last week (Chart 1), confirming the buy signal from the oversold region on the weekly

indicator. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator climbed higher to above the 60-

point mark, while the 14-week RSI listed a positive reading just above 50.

 Meantime, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator’s signal

line extended higher above the zero line to reinforce a bullish trend signal, while the weekly

MACD signal line continued hooking up to suggest strengthening upward momentum (Chart

2). The 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator will see the -DI line

crossing back below the +DI line to trigger a buy signal on further strength, but the ADX line

continued inching lower, confirming a trendless market.

 In Conclusion 

Given the further improvement on momentum and trend indicators for the KLCI, the local

stock market should show upside resilience this week, even as short-term momentum

becomes more overbought. As such, profit-taking dips are likely to be shallow as increasingly

investors should be more confident to return and bargain stocks, especially those in the

construction, property and oil & gas sectors which have suffered heavy losses in recent

weeks. Moreover, improvement on the euro-zone debt situation following the decisive action

taken by EU leaders to boost its rescue fund to 1 trillion euros as bondholders agreed to a

relatively mild 50% haircut on Greek debt, as well as much stronger-than-expected US and

Chinese economic data, should combine to boost sentiment further.

 On the index, immediate resistance comes from 1,488, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (FR)

of the sell-off from the 1,597 record high of 11 July to the recent pivot low of 1,310 on 26 Sept

(Chart 3), matching last Friday’s high. A breakout going forward would see stronger

resistance from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1,495 and 1,512 respectively,

being challenged, while the 76.4%FR at 1,529 would act as a more formidable upside barrier.

Immediate support on profit-taking dips will be at 1,454, the 50%FR, with better retracement

support at 1,420, the 38.2%FR, followed by 1,400 and then 1,378, the 23.6%FR.

HAPPY TRADING 

Dow Closes Week With Profit Takings After Stellar Performance

DJIA Adds 5th Week To Winning Streak
Heads For Best Month Since 1987
Despite the Dow's lethargic performance on the day, the blue-chip index powered 422 points higher this week, marking its fifth straight weekly gain as it heads for the best monthly performance in 24 years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.6 points, or 0.18%, to 12,231, the S&P 500 gained 0.49 point, or 0.04%, to 1,285 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5 points, or 0.05%, to 2,737. Traders took a breather on Friday following a very strong showing in the prior session.  Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was much lighter than it was on Thursday when the Dow zoomed 340 points to the upside.

Despite falling share prices Friday, the markets are headed for their best October performance on record, as easing European tensions, and generally upbeat corporate earnings have boosted traders' confidence.  Indeed, this week's rally knocked most major market indices into the black for 2011.  The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all trading at their highest level in three months. 

Other Markets
European blue chips fell 0.18%, the English FTSE 100 dipped 0.2% to 5,702 and the German DAX fell 0.2% to 6,346. 

In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 jumped 1.4% to 9,050 and the Chinese Hang Seng soared 1.7% to 20,019. 

All eyes are still fixed on Europe, however, even after policymakers Thursday crafted a plan to tackle the region's debt crisis that has threatened some of the world's biggest economies.  Doubts still remain among analysts as to whether the euro zone's $610 billion rescue fund, even after substantial leveraging, will be enough to tackle future sovereign debt crises, particularly if they strike big economic players, like Italy.  

The currency bloc is hoping China may make an investment in the fund, taking advantage of its strong position in currency markets.  However, European and Chinese leaders downplayed that notion on Friday, according to several media reports from Asia and Europe.

HAPPY WEEKEND 

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 10月 28日 FBMKLCI 28/10/2011

综合指数 2011年 10月 28日
欧美股市隔夜大举上扬，综指周五跳空上扬开市，并一度上扬至1488.20点的全日最高，惟在1487.62点的费氏阻力线（61.8% 费氏回归线）遇阻，综指按日只能上扬10.89点或0.74%。综指当前阻力水平依然是1487.62点的费氏线，支持水平则是1453点的费氏线及图中所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周五只增加0.04%，但是依然是远远高于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。以技术而言，若综指遇阻是成交量偏高的话，一般上都暗示着投资者套利活动的增加。无论如何，只要综指能继续维持在40天的成交量平均线以上的话，那马股整体上的投资气氛还算是健康的。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然维持在70%水平以上的短期强势区域里。这表示综指短期的走势还是偏强的，直到随机指标失守70%水平为止。

总的来说，综指当前处于短期涨势中，而只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线扶持，并且重复形成较高底（higher-lows）的话，那综指涨势有望延续下去。

祝你好运

BURSA MALAYSIA CLOSING MARKET REPORT 28 OCT 2011

FBM KLCI Uptrend Sustain

The FBM KLCI index gained 10.89 points or 0.74% on Friday. The Finance Index increased 0.97% to 13420.59 points, the Properties Index up 0.46% to 966.84 points and the Plantation Index rose 0.03% to 7494.68 points. The market traded within a range of 10.05 points between an intra-day high of 1488.20 and a low of 1478.15 during the session. 

Actively traded stocks include HIRO-WA, HARVEST-WA, GPRO, HARVEST, MBFHLDG-WA, TIMECOM, HIRO, HUBLINE, SAAG and RAMUNIA-WA. Trading volume increased to 1877.90 mil shares worth RM2295.28 mil as compared to Thursday’s 1877.17 mil shares worth RM2413.17 mil. 
 

Leading Movers were CIMB (+18 sen to RM7.46), GENTING (+30 sen to RM10.60), MAYBANK (+6 sen to RM8.35), PETCHEM (+10 sen to RM6.41) and SIME (+5 sen to RM8.90). Lagging Movers were IOICORP (-12 sen to RM5.14), UMW (-7 sen to RM6.59), DIGI (-10 sen to RM31.50) and YTL (-1 sen to RM1.51). Market breadth was positive with 470 gainers as compared to 338 losers.  

HAPPY WEEKEND