ZLBT Chats

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Bernanke-Inspired Rally; Sixth Daily Gain for Dow

Stocks climbed slightly higher on Tuesday, the sixth daily gain in a row for the Dow, as Wall Street cheered the latest signs of an economic recovery and the reappointment of Ben Bernanke, the man some say prevented the recession from turning into a full-fledged depression. A rebound in consumer confidence and more healing in the housing industry put stocks back on an upward path.

Banks, retailers and homebuilders were Tuesday's biggest winners, helping to lift the major indexes about 0.3 percent. Energy and utility stocks fell sharply as oil prices cooled following a recent surge.
Though investors were pleased by better-than-expected readings on consumers and housing, trading was choppy as it has been over the past week. Despite improving economic data, the market is still generally cautious.
Today's Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 30.01 points, or 0.32%, to 9539.29, the Standard & Poor's 500 added 2.43 points, or 0.24%, to 1028 and the Nasdaq Composite picked up 6.25 points, or 0.31%, to 2024.23.
It's appropriate the Bernanke announcement coincided with the release of a pair of reports that reveal how much economic conditions have improved since the darkest days of the financial crisis the Fed chairman is credited with containing. A private research group said consumer confidence unexpectedly surged in August and a home price index revealed prices rose on a monthly basis for the second-straight month, something that hasn't happened in two years.

The latest rally sent the Dow to its sixth consecutive daily gain and pushed all three major indexes to fresh 2009 highs.
"The market has legs. It looks like it wants to roast up to [Dow] 10000 regardless of what anyone says,” said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading at LEK Securities.

The Dow has surged more than 17% over the past six weeks as Wall Street continues to price in the chances of a second-half economic recovery. In fact, the benchmark index nearly closed on Tuesday 3,000 points above its 12 1/2-year low of 6457, set on March 9. The most striking thing about the rally is that it has yet to be slowed by a correction of 10% or more, much to the bears' dismay.

However, the markets ended well off their best levels as a 3% plunge in the price of crude oil put pressure on the energy sector, capping the day's gains.
So can the summer surge continue into the fall despite more expected job losses?
“I think it can,” said Richard Sparks, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, pointing to the amount of cash believed to be on the sidelines. “We’re up big, no doubt about it. But there’s still skepticism. That suggests you don’t have the euphoria you’d have after such a big run if it’s near an end.”
Oil tumbles from 10-month peak on profit-taking
Oil prices fell 3 percent on Tuesday as dealers rushed to take profits from a rally that had culminated in a 10-month peak earlier in the day.
U.S. crude oil dropped $2.32 to settle at $72.05 a barrel, down from a high of $75, in the biggest percentage loss since August 14. Brent crude dropped $2.44 to $71.82.

"It looks like crude tested the $75 level and failed," said Tom Bentz, a trader with BNP Paribas.

Players said oil's more than 65 percent rally this year was a good opportunity for some to lock in profits. "There's been profit-taking in the energy markets," said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
Oil prices had shot up in earlier trading after U.S. reports showed increased consumer confidence and higher home prices in the world's largest energy consumer -- adding to a string of encouraging economic indicator
Oil prices, which usually track equities markets closely, could hold around current levels next year, according to a Reuters survey of more than 30 analysts.
The analysts raised their consensus forecast for the fifth straight month on expectations higher fuel demand in an economic recovery would support prices.
The oil market's focus will shift later to weekly U.S. oil inventory data.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBM ACE 25/08/2009 / 富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 25日

FBM ACE 25/08/2009
As indicated by A, the FBMACE remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, closing 18.73 points or 0.4% lower on Tuesday. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic resistance for the FBMACE. Resistance for the FBMACE remains at 4398 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) while the 4031 FR is still the support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded clearly for the FBMACE is trading at a narrow range. This suggests that the FBMACE has not formed a downtrend, but remains in its consolidation with some negative biased. In other words, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands, with the FBMACE below the Bollinger Middle Band, the FBMACE would form a downtrend.

As circled at B, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the FBMACE is weakening, and the weakening shall continue unless the Stochastic could break above 30% level.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram continues to decline, while no Rounding Bottom is sighted yet, this suggests that the FBMACE is not gaining any strength at the moment. Meanwhile, the MACD line is also falling gradually,while getting closer to the zero level. If the MACD line should break below the zero level, it would be a signal suggesting a weakening of the mid term movement.

Despite negative signals from Secondary Indicators (such as MACD and Stochastic), the FBMACE has not formed a downtrend, because the Bollinger Bands (a Primary Indicator) has not signaled any bearish movement for the FBMACE yet. Therefore, the priority of the analysis should be based upon the Bollinger Bands, and investors are asked to monitor the changes of the Bollinger Bands Width closely. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expands clearly, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement, and the FBMACE would have to break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to regain its positive position, other wise, there is a risk of a downtrend formation.
富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 25日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马创业板周二继续处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,按日下跌18.73点或0.4%,所以布林中频带继续是创业板的动态阻力线(Dynamic Resistance)。创业板阻力水平继续是4398点的费氏线,支持水平则依然是4031点的费氏线。
由于创业板连日在窄幅中交易,所以布林频带未能真正打开,这表示创业板还未形成跌势,只是维持于偏弱的盘整格局中。无论如何,接下来只要布林频带明显打开,而创业板继续处于布林中频带以下,创业板将有下跌的风险。

如图中B圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)进一步的下跌,继续处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里,这表示创业板短期的走势已经属于疲软,若接下来随机指标还是未能上扬突破30%水平,那创业板短期的后市将继续看淡。

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续下滑,所以还未形成圆底(Rounding Bottom),这表示创业板目前依然还未出现转强的讯号。另一方面,平均乖离线(MACD Line)逐渐下滑,而且开始接近零轴,若平均乖离线跌破零轴进入负值区,那将是创业板中期的走势开始转弱的讯号。

虽然辅助指标(Secondary Indicators)如随机指标及平均乖离振荡指标都显示创业板有偏弱的讯号,但主要指标(Primary Indicator)布林频带依然未能确认创业板转弱,所以投资者应该以布林频带为依归,密切留意布林频带打开时的讯号,当布林频带明显打开时便是创业板开始新走势的讯号,惟创业板必须先上扬突破布林中频带,方可转强,否则将继续有下跌的风险。

Maybank Reports 59 Pct Drop In Pre-Tax Profit

Malayan Banking Bhd's pre-tax profit for the financial year ended June 30, 2009 fell 59 per cent to RM1.67 billion from RM4.09 billion last year.
The profit was achieved over an 8.9 per cent rise in revenue to RM17.586 billion against RM16.153 billion previously. The lower profit was largely due to higher loan loss provisions, and interest on the additional RM9.1 billion capital securities and subordinated debts issued in 2008.
In announcing the results here today, its president and chief executive officer, Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar said the interest amount on the capital securities amounted to RM445 million. "We also saw lower capital market activities that contributed to a lower profit from our investment banking arm and insurance front which effected higher claim ratio as well as lower investment income," he said.
The group's performance was mainly impacted by impairment charges of RM1.617 billion arising from the Bank of PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BII) banking business operations deal and an impairment loss of RM353.1 million for the investment in MCB Bank, its associate in Pakistan.

In the fourth quarter, Maybank registered a pre-tax loss of RM821.6 million as against a pre-tax profit of RM1.02 billion in the same quarter of 2008, on revenues of RM4.86 billion and RM4.49 billion respectively.

Asked on whether the fourth quarter net loss was the lowest ever recorded, Abdul Wahid said: "I am not able to confirm that."
Maybank has never incurred a loss from an annual perspective, he nevertheless said.
"The lowest profit we ever recorded was just after the last Asian financial crisis with a profit of about RM190 million. So the full year profit this year of RM692 million is still off the low," he added.
Asked on whether there would be other impairment charges in the coming quarters, he said: "We believe that based on the exercise which we've undertaken, we do not expect any further impairments."

For the fourth quarter, Maybank posted a net loss of RM1.118 billion.
This however was partly offset by the write-back of allowance for non-refundable deposit of RM483.8 million arising from the reinstatement of approval by Bank Negara Malaysia and the subsequent completion of the proposed acquisition of Sorak Financial Holdings Pte Ltd, the controlling shareholder of BII.

Maybank declared a final dividend of 8.0 sen per share less 25 per cent tax. For the full year, Maybank's net profit attributable to equity holders was lower by 76.4 per cent to RM691.9 million from RM2.93 billion previously.
Meanwhile, operating profit was reduced by 33 per cent to RM3.06 billion compared with RM4.57 billion previously.
This was mainly due to the higher allowance for impairment of securities of RM197.5 million compared to a write-back of RM66.2 million in the previous year and a higher allowance for losses on loans due mainly to higher specific allowance made, lower recoveries and as a result of consolidation of the loan loss provision of BII for the first time in the current financial year.

"It has been an extremely challenging time for the group in the wake of the global financial crisis and weakened economic situation in the financial year. But we are optimistic of a significant improvement in our performance next year," Abdul Wahid said. For the financial year ending June 30, 2010, the group has set its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) with a revenue growth target of 8.0 per cent and a return on equity (ROE) of 11 per cent.

The group will also focus on growing its international operations with particular emphasis on BII, which has identified initiatives to improve loans growth and fee-based income as well as derive synergies to enhance revenue generation.
Maybank's net interest income was nine percent higher at RM5.92 billion in financial year ended June 30, 2009 from RM5.43 billion previously.
This was achieved on the back of higher loans growth and improved lending margins contributed by BII.
The group's asset quality continues to improve with gross non-performing loan (NPL) declining to 3.46 per cent from 3.76 per cent, and net NPL easing to 1.64 per cent from 1.92 per cent.
"We undertook a lot of pre-emptive measures and were able to avoid many of the accounts from turning NPL. Therefore, it contributed to the lowering of net NPL ratio to 1.64 per cent," Abdul Wahid said.

The industry NPL average is at 2.2 percent.

FUTURES MARKET >>> FBM KLCI AND CRUDE PALM OIL

FBM KL Composite Index FuturesThe FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed easier on Tuesday on the back of a lower cash market, dealers said.
Spot month August 2009 lost 8.5 points to 1,171.0 and September 2009 fell 7.5 points to 1,170.5.
December 2009 and March 2010 dropped seven points each to 1,166.0 and 1,161.0 respectively.
Total volume went up to 12,346 lots from 9,908 lots yesterday and open interest rose to 20,635 contracts from 19,442 contracts previously.
The underlying FBM KLCI shed 3.4 points to close at 1,171.09.
SUPPORT
1163/1155/1150
RESISTANCE
1177/1185/1193
Crude Palm Oil (CPO) FuturesContract prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed mostly lower today on profit-taking activities, dealers said.
The retreat was temporary as the market is likely to rebound going forward as the improving global economy will mean higher demand in the future, said one of the dealers.
He said at around the current level, the prices are well supported.
Spot month September gained RM3 to settle at RM2,438 per tonne while October lost RM12 to RM2,383 per tonne, November fell RM20 to RM2,355 per tonne and December went down RM12 to RM2,353 per tonne.
Turnover rose to 18,429 lots from 17,937 lots yesterday while open interest declined to 86,426 contracts from 86,744 contracts previously.
On the cash market, August South remained at RM2,470 per tonne.
SUPPORT
2340 / 2318 / 2300
RESISTANCE
2388 / 2413 /2450

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Niaga Hadapan FBM KLCI Rendah Ditengah Hari

Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia KualaLumpur (FBM KLCI) di Bursa Malaysia Derivatif ditutup lebih rendah sehinggatengah hari hari ini sejajar dengan pasaran tunai yang lebih rendah, kata parapeniaga. Ogos 2009 turun 9.5 mata kepada 1,170.0, September 2009 turun 8.5 matakepada 1,169.5, dan Disember 2009 dan Mac 2010 rugi 10.0 mata setiap satumasing-masing kepada 1,163.0 dan 1,158.0.
Jumlah dagangan dicatatkan 9,494 lot manakala minat terbuka berjumlah 20,635kontrak. Di pasaran tunai, FBM KLCI turun 4.1 mata kepada 1,170.39 sehingga jam 12.30tengah hari.