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Saturday, May 30, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 29日 /Composite Index 29/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 29日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger MidBand)及T2上升趋势线反弹,所以T2线及布林中频带依然是综指的动态支持水平,综指阻力水平则继续是1053点胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带周五收窄10%,确认综指进入调整巩固格局,只要布林频带继续收窄的话,综指将倾向于横摆巩固或技术调整的风险。如图所示,阴阳烛出现长的上影线及下影线,这表示市场正面对买方及卖方势均力敌的拉锯战。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量在周五增加64.3%,使到成交量重返40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。虽然成交量有增加,但成交量接下来必须维持在40天的成交量平均值以上,那才有助于综指维持上扬额格局,所以成交量能否维持在40天的平均值以上是综指恢复上升趋势的重要关键。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标在70%水平反弹,并未跌破70%水平,这表示综指短期还未确认转弱的讯号。换句话说,只要随机指标能够保持在70%水平以上,综指短期是有望恢复上扬的格局。

总的来说,由于T2趋势线与布林中频带重叠,所以扶持力量倍增,这使到综指在布林频带反弹,综指暂时幸免转弱。无论如何,综指若要再度形成上扬格局的话,接下来在布林频带重新打开时,综指须处于布林中频带以上,再配合成交量成功的维持在40天的平均值或以上的水平。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI was supported by the T2 line as well as the Bollinger Middle Band again, suggesting that the KLCI immediate outlook has not turned bearish. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 10%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the KLCI is likely to move sideways or some risk of a technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 64.3%, bring the volume back above the 40-day VMA level. However, in order for the KLCI to regain its strength, volume has to remain above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded from 70% level, and therefore, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned weak. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, there is a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend.

The rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band and T2 is important for they temporary keep the KLCI from turning weaker. However, in order for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, the we should have the following criteria, which are the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as an increased of volume above the 40-day VMA level.

Friday, May 29, 2009

KLCI Rally Resumes 29 May 2009

The local stock market’s rally resumed on May 29 after a hesitant start. Despite overnight gains on Wall Street, most local investors started the day on a cautious footing, unsure if the two-month old rally will resume or peter out. This follows Thursday’s lacklustre performance as investors were unnerved by the larger than expected 6.2% GDP decline for Malaysia in the first quarter of 2009.

The KLCI started trading on Friday higher, but quickly fell into negative territory, where it stayed for half the morning session. However, investors regained their confidence in the afternoon session, sending the benchmark index up as much as 17 points at its intra-day high.
Late profit-taking activities, however, trimmed the gains to just 2.9 points, with the KLCI ending at 1,044.1. Investors may have decided to lock in some gains ahead of a number of key US economic data due out later on May 29, including the second round of first quarter GDP estimates and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Market breadth was positive with advancing stocks beating declining ones by a 3-to-2 margin. Volume expanded from Thursday’s lackluster 1.08 billion shares to 1.77 billion shares.

Investors took their cues from a number of factors, including a rally in regional markets, rising crude oil and palm oil prices. Benchmark indices in Japan and Hong Kong rose to their highest levels in eight months. Palm oil prices rose further to above RM2,500 per tonne.

Crude oil prices have also rallied strongly in the past week, rising to above US$65 per barrel as the market adjusted to shrinking supplies after a spate of rising inventories earlier. Last week, US oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week. This increased interest in domestic oil and gas stocks, with KNM, SAAG and Scomi among the top actives of the day. Major gainers include Tenaga, Sime Darby and Parkson. Losers include BAT, PPB and YTL Corp.

Crude Oil Production & Inventories

Crude Oil just hit another new high 15 mins ago before this chart was published
US crude oil inventories are falling — attributable to both declining imports and rising consumption. Consumption above 15 million barrels/day would be a sign that economic activity is recovering.

Regional markets up at midday 29 May 2009

Most regional markets were up at midday on Friday buoyed by a report that Japan’s industrial output grew the most in 56 years in April.
Japan’s production experienced better-than-expected growth of 5.2% from March boosted by a rebound in exports.
At 12.30pm, the KLCI rose 2.85 points (0.27%) to 1,044.09 while Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 1.10% to 2,318.22. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.03% to 9,448.10, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.46% to 17,967.31 and South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.47% to 1,385.56.

At Bursa Malaysia, 224 counters were up, 258 counters were down and 198 were traded unchanged. There were 827.45 million shares done with a total value of RM811.04 million.

Among the heavyweights, Tenaga added 20 sen to RM7.80, Maybank rose 5 sen to RM5.20, TM fell 8 sen to RM2.65 and Genting slipped 5 sen to RM5.40.
Plantation stocks Sime was up 10 sen to RM6.85, KLK added 20 sen to RM11.70, PPB rose 10 sen to RM10.90 and Batu Kawan slipped 10 sen to RM8.55. Malaysia Airports was down 12 sen to RM3.48, RHB Capital lost 12 sen to RM4.08, BAT fell 25 sen to RM43.50, Boustead dipped 22 sen to RM4.24. Oil-related stocks KNM added 7.5 sen to 88 sen, Scomi rose 2.5 sen to 70 sen and SAAG was up 1 sen to 33.5 sen.

KNM SEALINK Dow Futures Crude Oil Futures UPDATED



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