综合指数 2009年 01月 30日 / Composite Index 30/01/2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 30日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数以低姿态开市，惟综指随后回弹，不过综指再度精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）遇到阻力，这表示布林中频带这动态阻力线继续的成为综指的接下来的主要阻力线，综指另一道阻力水平则是887点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则落在869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）收窄16%，这显示综指依然还是处于从跌势中恢复过来的状态，也就是技术反弹。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量微增3.1%，所以成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示市场还是属于一个淡静的格局中，通常这是综指处于一个调整巩固或下跌格局中的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续的上扬，所以综指的短期走势有继续走强的迹象，无论如何，这目前只能算是技术反弹而已，直到随机指标上扬至70%以上，综指才能算是出现了短期上扬的走势。
总的来说，综指再度尝试上探布林中频带这动态阻力，惟综指还是无功而返，换句话说，综指必须先突破布林中频带这重要的技术分析心理阻力线，那综指才有望形成更长远的转强格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/01/2009
As indicated by A, despite an attempt to rebound from early losses, the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. Other resistance for the KLCI is at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still at 869 and 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, as shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands width contracted another 16%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating after falling, thus a technical rebound.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 3.1%, and still, the volume is below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market participation is still relatively low. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to consolidate with insufficient market participation.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still rising after breaking above 30% level, suggesting that the technical rebound of the KLCI continues. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

To sum up, the KLCI is still testing the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance, and until the Bollinger Middle Band is successfully taken out, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

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