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Saturday, April 2, 2011

WALL STREET : DJIA Jumps 57 Points on Jobs Jubilee

The DJIA, SPX, and COMP all advanced more than 1% for the week
The bulls got a running start this morning, thanks to a relatively refreshing employment report from Uncle Sam. Taking center stage ahead of the bell, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added more jobs than anticipated in March, while the unemployment rate fell to a two-year nadir of 8.8%, besting economists' expectations. The jubilation on the Street hit a fever pitch around midday, as evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average's mid-session summit of 12,419.71 -- in territory the blue chips haven't charted since June 2008. However, the bears attempted to rain on the bulls' parade in afternoon trading, with tech and telecom stocks pacing a retreat. Nevertheless, optimism ultimately prevailed, with all three major market indexes boasting respectable gains by the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,376.72) was up 100 points at its intraday acme, but whittled away its lead to nearly 57 points, or 0.5%, by the bell. Only seven of the Dow's 30 blue chips bucked the trend, with Intel Corp. (INTC) leading the misfits with a loss of 2.3%. On the flip side, industrial bigwigs Caterpillar (CAT) and General Electric (GE) blazed the trail higher for the bullish majority, adding 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. For the week, the Dow advanced 1.3%.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,332.41) trimmed its gains in afternoon trading, tacking on 6.6 points, or 0.5%, by the close. For the week, the broad-market barometer rallied an impressive 1.4%, ending atop the 1,330 level for just the second week this year. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,789.60) backpedaled after a brief foray north of 2,800 -- the index's first in nearly a month -- but ended with a still-respectable 8.5-point, or 0.3%, surplus. For the week, the tech-rich COMP fared the best of the three, advancing 1.7%.

Week Ahead: Fed Meeting Minutes and Economic Data

Stock markets next week will try to maintain Friday’s momentum, achieved via a strong labor report that saw the unemployment rate drop to 8.8%, the lowest level in two years.
On tap for the upcoming week are the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 15 policy meeting, set for release on Tuesday. Investors will be looking for signs that Fed officials are keeping an eye on inflation as energy prices rise on upheaval in the Middle East and soaring commodities push prices at the grocery store higher.
Also set for release Tuesday is a survey from the Institute for Supply Management on the non-manufacturers purchasing managers index, which measures activity primarily by service companies.
Other economic data reports scheduled for release next week include a report on consumer credit levels due out Thursday and a report on wholesale inventories due out on Friday.
Investors will also be watching March same-store sales from retailers, as they are released next week, for signs that consumer spending has picked up. March sales are expected to be slightly off from a year earlier because Easter falls later this year. Economists believe new jobless claims for the week ended April 2, set for release Thursday, will be slightly lower at an estimated 385,000, than the previous week when 388,000 claims were made.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed higher on Friday and above February's high crossing at 12,391 as it renewed the rally off last June's low. Today's rally was supported by the morning's unemployment report, which fell to 8.8% and an increase in non-farm payrolls increasing by 216,000 jobs. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 12,767 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,085 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,419.
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 12,767.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,206.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,085.
HAPPY WEEKEND

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