TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月01日 / FBMKLCI 01/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 01日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周五再次跳空上扬，突破了1552点的费氏阻力线，按日上扬10.25点或0.66%。综指接下来的阻力水平是1576点的历史新高水平，支持水平则是1537点的费氏线及14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量继续减少（减少22.1%），而成交量却处于40天成交量平均线的边缘。若成交量继续减退，那市场的交投将再次淡静下来，届时马股整体上的投资气氛将难以保温，这将不利于马股整体上的表现。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于高于90%水平，这表示综指当前短期继续处于过热的状况，因此在近期内既有可能出现拉回效应，也就是技术调整。无论如何，只要随机指标还是保持在70%水平以上，那综指当前短期的走势还是偏强的。

总的来说，综指按周上扬39.83点或2.63%，而且继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持。不过，由于综指已经突破20天的布林上频道（20-day Bollinger Upper Band），这表示综指短期已经处于过热的状况，因此在近期内有出现拉回效应的风险。

FBM KLCI 01 April 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI gap up again on Friday, gaining another 10.25 points or 0.66%, and breaks above the 1552 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement resistance. Next resistance for the KLCI is at 1576 all time high, while the support is at 1537 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 22.1%, with volume testing the 40-day Volume Moving Average level. If volume should fall below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it suggests that the market is back to quiet, and this would affect the sustainability of the recent positive movement.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 90%, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is indeed strong, but it is over-heated. Therefore, a technical correction or a pullback is likely to take place. But with the Stochastic still above 70%, the short term bullish signal remains intact.

In conclusion, the KLCI has gained 39.83 points or 2.63% in a week, and the technical outlook is still positive, with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, short term movement of the KLCI is now over-heated, thus a pullback is likely.

HAPPY WEEKEND