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Monday, April 4, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月04日 / FBMKLCI 04/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 04日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)周一开高,一度上扬至1565.04点的全日最高点,不过综指随后便开始回软,这是到综指最后几乎已平盘挂收,微扬0.1点。无论如何,图中所示的14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)依然是综指当前的动态支持线。综指阻力水平是1577点的历史新高。

另一方面,综指目前依然处于20天的布林上频带(20-day Bollinger Upper Band)以上,这表示综指目前还是处于过热的状况,因此有出现拉回效应(Pullback Effect)的风险,也就是技术调整之一。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周一增加了11.56%,这是到成交量维持在40天的平均线(VMA)以上。一般来说,只要成交量能保持在40天的成交量平均值以上,那表示市场的交投已经到达健康的水平,这通常有助于综指(或马股整体)转强。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)多日处于90%水平以上后,周一开始跌破90%水平,这是综指短期过热后的现象。要是随机指标接下来跌破70%水平,那将是综指短期技术调整的开始。

总的来说,综指连续上扬多日后,如今已有技术调整的迹象。不过,只要综指出现调整后依然能保持在14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线以上,那综指还是有恢复上扬格局的可能。

FBM KLCI 04 April 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI opened gap up on Monday, and had its intra-day high reaching1565.04 points; however, the KLCI soon started losing its early gains, and ended the day with only 0.1 of a point positive. The 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance for the KLCI is at 1577 all time high.

Meanwhile, the KLCI remains above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, and this suggests that the KLCI is still over-heated, and a pullback is still expected to take place, which is a form of a technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 11.56%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, if volume should stay above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it suggests that the market participation is healthy, thus usually help lifting or sustain the positive market sentiment.  

As indicated by C, the Stochastic started falling after staying above 90% for a few days. This is a sign of an over-heated condition. If the Stochastic should start falling below 70%, it will be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, it is normal to have a sort of pullback for the KLCI after rising non stop for 1 week. Provided that the KLCI could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support after the pullback, there is still a good chance for the KLCI to form a higher-low.
HAPPY TRADING

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