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Saturday, April 16, 2011

WALL STREET : DJIA Gain Ground as Solid Data Trumps Earnings Woes;

The DJIA, SPX, and COMP trimmed their week-to-date deficits

After dipping their toes into the red right out of the gate, the major market indexes reversed course to end the session on a high note. Encouraging economic data helped to put earnings disappointments from Google and Bank of America on the proverbial back burner, with the bulls celebrating reports of robust New York-area manufacturing, healthy industrial production, and a bigger-than-anticipated jump in consumer sentiment. Furthermore, data showing tamer-than-anticipated core inflation also sweetened the Street's mood, amplifying expectations for a continued period of rock-bottom interest rates.

As the bulls opted for the glass-half-full approach, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) -- otherwise known as the market's "fear gauge" -- fell to a two-month low, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) clawed its way back into the black for April.
The gains in stocks on Friday came as a measure of consumer sentiment rose in April, beating forecasts. Core consumer prices climbing a modest 0.1% in March, according to the Labor Department, which provide the Federal Reserve with breathing space to continue its $600 billion bond buying program. Also released Friday was data showing that manufacturing in the New York region climbed to a one-year high in April on a surge of new orders.

QUOTE : "The data along with indications the Fed will not tighten monetary policy anytime soon allowed the market to overcome less-than-starry earnings results. The bottom line is that the good economy and cheap money will continue to bolster the stock market,” said a senior Wall Street stragegist.

After falling about 12 points at the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,341.83) spent the rest of the session basking in positive territory, ending with a gain of 56.68 points, or 0.46%. However, the blue-chip barometer's upward momentum stalled in the 12,350 neighborhood, home to its 10-day moving average. Twenty of the Dow's 30 components ended higher, with Merck & Co. advancing 1.9% after settling a dispute with Johnson & Johnson. Unsurprisingly, Bank of America led the bearish minority with an earnings-induced loss of nearly 2.4%. For the week, the Dow shed 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,319.68) also battled into the black within the first hour of trading, settling with a gain of 5.16 points, or 0.39%. What's more, the broad-market index maintained its perch atop its 10-week moving average, despite giving up 0.6% on the week.

Thanks to disappointing earnings in the tech sector, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,764.65) spent more time in the red than its peers, but still finished with a modest gain of 4.43 points, or 0.16%. For the week, the COMP surrendered 0.6%, but ended just a hair's breadth north of its own 10-week trendline.

More than two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was 4 billion shares.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 12,163 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 12,767 is the next upside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,369.
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 12,450.
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 12,163.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 11,972.

Crude Up on day, Down for the Week
Crude futures once again overcame an early bout of weakness today, ending higher as encouraging economic data bolstered hopes for increasing demand. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tension in Libya and Nigeria amplified fears about prolonged supply disruptions. By the close, May-dated crude oil futures added $1.55, or 1.4%, to finish at $109.66 per barrel. For the week, however, black gold surrendered 2.7%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
May Crude Oil
May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 121.09 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 113.46.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline
crossing at 121.09.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 105.31.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 102.70.
HAPPY WEEKEND

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