TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2011年04月18日 / FBMKLCI 18/04/2011

综合指数 2011年 04月 18日

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周一一度上探14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA），但是最后依然在14、21、31天EMA遇阻，按日回弹5.98点或0.39%。综指当前的支持水平依然是1525点及1513点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1537点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周一增加12.81%，但是依然未能到达40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示马股交投目前还是处于淡静，因此综指暂时还未能获得足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。换句话说，综指还未出现转强的讯号。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里，这表示综指短期走势还是偏弱的，直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%水平为止。

总的来说，综指自上周出现大幅度调整后，目前在1525点费氏线左右获得扶持，暂时进入了短期偏弱的横摆的走势。综指长期的涨势，还未受到破坏，这是因为综指周线图表（Weekly）依然稳守在14、21、31周EMA长期动态支持线以上。无论如何，综指要是继续转弱的话，那将会形成较低高峰（Lower-high ）的图形。

FBM KLCI 18 April 2011
As indicated by A, the FBMKLCI rebounded and tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA on Monday, gaining 5.98 points or 0.39%. However, the KLCI failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, but managed to stay above 1525, thus the 1525 and the 1513 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement are the support for the KLCI while the resistance is at 1537 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 12.81%, but volume stays below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This means that the market, overall, is still lightly participated, thus the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the the Stochastic stays below 30%, in the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak, until the Stochastic could successfully break above 30%.

In conclusion, since the retreat last week, the KLCI is staying in a sideways movement, with short term bearish biased. However, the long term uptrend of the KLCI remains unaffected, as the KLCI weekly chart is still staying firmly above the 14, 21, 31 weekly EMA. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should turn weaker, it would form a lower-high.

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