FKLI Daily Preview 16082013

Preview

 Expect futures to take a bearish turn today after US markets posted two consecutive days of steep decline. However, do expect the local market to be reasonable supported by Moody’s report which dictated Malaysia’s outlook to be stable. The vicissitude in US shares relates to disappointing results and outlooks from Wal-Mart and Cisco.

Additionally, reports showing that jobless claims fell to a six-year low and rising consumer prices generated further speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon trim its effort in supporting the economy. The Fed’s next policy meeting will be held on 17-18 September, whereby its outcome will be heavily anticipated for any changes in its quantitative easing programme.

Back in the local front, FBM KLCI descended marginally by 0.08 percent, closing at 1792.21. Gains were witnessed during the early trading session despite a steep fall in the US overnight market.

However, selling picked up towards the closing bell which reversed earlier gains. The energy and

banking industries were major losers for the day, Petronas Dagangan, Petronas Gas, Ambank, Maybank, and Hong Leong Bank to name a few.

Futures trade at a further premium of 6 points away from its underlying cash market.

Technicals

Futures closed at a gain of 0.11 percent and settled at 1798. Trading activities wobbled between positive and negative territory as buyers remained hesitant of upward potential. Chart wise, a white candle was formed, whereby prices managed to close higher than overnight levels amid uncertainties. MACD indicator also journeys towards a buy signal.

However, expect prices to open gap down as the market takes cue of the fall from the US overnight market. Buyers may step in to take advantage of low prices during early trades. Nevertheless, downside risk remains eminent and selling activities will intensify upon breaching immediate

support at 1793. As such, support and resistance can be eyed at 1780 and 1810 respectively.

 

Strategy

Trade may short with a stop on or above 1810.

FCPO Preview Outlook 01 Aug 2013

Technicals

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher due to good export reports released on Wednesday. ITS and SGS released the figures showed that Malaysia palm oil export up 4% and 5% respectively.  

Futures settled at 2236, up 21 points. Prices were caught in a tight range and hovered between losses and gains but remained steady above 2200 level. The formation of a small bodied white candle with longer upper shadow indicates buyers outweighed sellers for most part of the day and managed to lift prices from its day low. Higher high and higher low formed could add to confirmation of a bullish reversal despite a mild profit taking after the strong rebound yesterday. This could imply improved sentiment and MACD is seen approaching a bullish divergence where a cross above would provide more signs of price recovery. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2200 and 2275 respectively.

 

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2200.

 

FKLI Preview Outlook 01 Aug 2013

FBM KLCI Futures Technicals

The FKLI spot month contract ended sharply lower on heavy selling pressure after Fitch, a global rating agency downgraded Malaysia’s sovereign credit rating. At the close, the FKLI Spot wiltered down 23 points to 1,774.5.
 

August futures prices cascaded 1.83 percent to close at 1766. Trading activities formed a long black candle, whereby selling activities intensified throughout the day. Prices were fragile as it violated major support levels to close below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

 

Heavy sell-off triggered after the price broke below the two important support levels. As we can see in the chart, the trend is turning weak after it broke below the support line as drawn in the chart and this is also confirmed by the MACD indicator.

 

Moreover, MACD extended its selling signal for a third consecutive day, hinting more bearish potential. Thus, support and resistance for the day can be eyed at 1750 and 1775 respectively.

 

 

Intraday technical support & resistance for 1/8/2013

1st support 1,765; 2nd support 1,753-50

1st resistance 1,775-80, 2nd resistance 1,800

Strategy

Trade may short with a stop on or above 1775.

FCPO >>> Technically weak and in slow recovery mode

FCPO Daily technical analysis

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher due to slightly improved in palm oil export released on Monday which underpinned the FCPO prices. ITS and SGS showed Malaysia palm oil export down 14% and 13% respectively. At the close, the FCPO up 15 points or 0.67% to 2,272.

Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle with lower wick has been formed on Monday where it indicated that the price was supported at the intraday lowest level.

Currently, the FCPO price still lingers between the range of 2,215 and 2,300. We should monitor closely which way it will break in the near term. Strong support level we would peg at 2,215 then followed by the psychological level of 2,200.

Referring to the MACD indicator, both lines staying in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

 MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

 

 

Intraday technical support & resistance for 23/07/2013

 1st support 2,215-00; 2nd support 2,170

 1st resistance 2,280; 2nd resistance 2,305

 

 

Strategy

Trade may attempt long with a stop on or below 2240.

FKLI 23/07/2013 >>> Previews and Technical Outlook

Preview

Expect futures to trend higher for the day, tracking gains in major bourses around the globe. In the US, the S&P 500 staged a third consecutive day of record high closing while dismal earnings from
McDonalds curbed gains in the Dow. Nevertheless, solid performance in the financial and health sectors managed to sustain gains. Back home, the FBM KLCI ended unchanged at 1797.68.

The local index ended flat after trading higher for most part of the day on last minute foreign selling activities. Meanwhile, volume across the board was thin as investors await the release of corporate earnings for the second-quarter prior to making investment decisions. The market was weighed down by British American Tobacco, Hong Leong Bank, and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. On the other hand, telecommunication stocks provided support for the market as Digi released favorable corporate earnings. Futures were still being traded at a premium of circa 4 points from its underlying cash market.

 

Technicals

Futures prices drifted 0.17 percent higher to settle at 1801.50. Trading activities was depicted through the formation of an inverted white hammer, which is considered a bearish signal during an uptrend. Moreover, 20 day moving average now lies above the 50 day moving average and prices stray further away from its 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages, which suggest a bullish trend. As such, support and resistance can be eyed at 1790 and 1810 respectively.

Technical indicators

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive，

 

Intraday technical support & resistance for 23rd July 2013

1st support 1,790; 2nd support 1,785-80

1st resistance 1,806.5, 2nd resistance 1,810-15

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 1790.

FBM KLCI Daily Chart >>> Support and Resistance 17072013

GOODLUCK

ZLBT Random Stock Pick >>> AZRB (7078)

Technical Comments: Due to overbought technical momentum, any further rally on AZRB towards RM1.10 (14/2/12 peak) or higher should encourage selling prior to profit-taking correction ahead, while retracement supports are at RM1.03 (76.4%FR) and 96sen (61.8%FR).

AZRB (7078)

As of 16 July 2013, AZRB has been on a strong uptrend as suggested by the upward sloping 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages. In addition, the price just broke the resistance of 1.08 reinforcing the bullishness in the recent price movement. This breakout was accompanied by a higher than average traded volume which shows the enthusiasm of the traders to push the price higher and past this resistance hence giving a higher probability of a successful breakout. HAPPY TRENDING

FCPO Preview, Technical Outlook 15 July 2013

Fundamental

 Palm oil prices hit 2-month low, pressured by latest release of USDA report which raised estimates for soybean planted acreage and ending stocks for this year. Robust global edible oil supplies had thus pressured local tropical oil to post the biggest drop since Nov 5. Furthermore, discouraging Chinese data and weak Indian rupees added to worries over falling demand from these top buyers amid expectations for high-yield production in the second half of the year. NYMEX crude rebounded as demonstration in Cairo on Friday highlighted Egypt’s political instability which continue to threaten oil supply.

Better-than-expected US second quarter earnings of financial sector had been another supportive factor to the market. US soyoil extended losses tracking sharp losses in Malaysian palm oil and on favourable weather forecasts in key growing regions which boost yield potential. Expect futures to trade lower today as prices are vulnerable to continuing weakness and investors might stay cautious ahead of export data due later today.

Technicals

CPO futures lost 71 points to settle at 2301 with substantially higher trading volume recorded for the day. Prices opened lower and had been trading with downward bias throughout the day. The strong sell-off in last trading hour pushed prices to break major support levels, triggering massive stop loss for long position and bringing prices to as low as 2295. The downside movement in prices had created a long black candle which also indicates a wide trading range for the day. The break below support levels and moving averages coupled with bearish MACD indicators lead to a bearish outlook
for the coming session. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2265 and 2325 respectively.

Strategy

Trade may short with a stop on or above 2325.

FKLI Preview, Tecknical Outlook 15 July 2013

FKLI Daily technical analysis

The FKLI spot month contract ended slightly higher on Friday which was in tandem with the rise in benchmark index. At the close, the FKLI price up 1.5 points or 0.08 % to 1,789.5.

Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle with lower wick has been formed on Friday where it indicated that the FKLI price was supported at the intraday low level. As we can see in the chart, the price traded in a narrow range after it rose sharply on Thursday. However, the price still managed to stay above the support line for second day. The FKLI price may rise further if it is able to stay above the support line in the coming days.

Referring to the MACD histogram, rounding bottom is forming up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

 

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive，

Intraday technical support & resistance for 15th July 2013

 

1st support 1,785; 2nd support 1,780-75

1st resistance 1,793, 2nd resistance 1,800

GOOD LUCK

FBM KLCI Preview, Technical Outlook 11 July 2013

Stocks ended off earlier highs on Wednesday, after initial optimism from overnight Wall Street strength was overshadowed by weaker export numbers from China which confirmed the world's second largest economy is slowing more rapidly. The KLCI still closed up 2.22 points at 1,768.71, off an early high of 1,771.24 and low of 1,766.67, as losers beat gainers 441 to 308 on slower trade totaling 1.22bn shares worth RM1.7bn.

Blue chips should continue to be range bound with upside capped amid cautious trade in the near-term, given the weaker-than-expected economic data from China dampening the growth outlook in the region.

Key immediate support for the KLCI stays at the 50-day moving average, now at 1,765, while a breakdown will grease correction towards 1,738, the 38.2%FR of the 1,597 low to 1,826 peak, , with 1,723 and 1,718, the highest point prior to 13GE, acting as stronger support buffers. On the upside, immediate resistance stays at 1,791, the 138.2%FP, followed by the 1,800 psychological level.

 

 

HAPPY TRENDING

FBM KLCI Futures Preview, Technical Analysis 11 July 2013

Preview

Expect futures to trend higher today despite minimal gains in the US market overnight as local sentiments may look towards bullish signals due to encouraging announcement by the Federal Reserve Chairman.

Bernanke’s comments that the Feds will continue its bond buying activities up till the labour market show significance improvement may correlate easing concern of a slowdown in growth in the world biggest economist.

Back home, FBMKLCI gained 0.13 percent to settle at 1768.71. The index traded range bound with an upward bias for most part of the day as sentiments borrowed strength from gains in the US, spurred by better expectations of earning results. Adversely, the upside potential was limited as investors factored in weak external trade data from China, which was made available on the second half of the trading session.

Leading leaders of the index were a mixture of gaming, plantation and telecommunication counters namely Genting, IOI and Maxis. Futures still maintain trading at a premium of approximately 1.5 points from its underlying cash market.

Technicals

Futures settled on a positive note with gains of 0.06 percent to close the day at 1770. Trading was depicted in the formation of a short bodied black candle signalling that sellers managed to outpace buyers for most part of the day. Sentiments remained generally bullish as prices still remains supported at its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Prices may open lower but if prices managed to break above its 1770 in early morning trades, investors may opt to go long taking advantage of an upward movement in prices. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 1765 and 1780 respectively.

Intraday Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 1760.

FBM KLCI Futures >>> Daily Preview, Technical Analysis

Preview

 Expect futures to trade range bound with an upward bias in tandem with rising Asian and European markets after European policy makers communicated that they will maintain interest rates at a record low for an extended period of time to stimulate further growth. US market was closed last night in conjunction with the Independence Day holiday. Jobless claims figures due to release later tonight will be closely watched for indication of economic strength.

In the local front, FBM KLCI gained 0.12 points to settle at 1771.34. The local index managed to post some gains in tandem with advances in most global markets, albeit lackluster trades.

Leading leaders were stocks from the plantation and banking industries, namely Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IOI Corp, CIMB, Maybank, Public Bank, and Hong Leong Bank. Futures now trade at a further premium of approximately 4 points away its underlying cash index.

Technicals
Futures prices hiked 0.31 percent to close at 1775.50. Trading activities formed a white spinning top, a depiction of indecisiveness amongst investors. Regardless, prices still managed to close firmly above its 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages, which imply that strength was still in tact. Hence, expect prices to further its bullish movement today as MACD indicator pointed towards a buy strategy as well.

Support and resistance can be eyed at 1765 and 1785 respectively.

Strategy

Traders may long with a stop on or below 1765.

GHL System Bhd (0021) >>> A Hidden Gem

Turnaround after 4 years of losses.

GHL System Bhd. was initially making losses from 2008 to 2011. However, in 2012, it started to turn around with a net profit (NP) of RM4.4m. This was following the emergence of a new group of management/shareholders in end-2010, which led to a progressive implementation of strategy changes such as the divestment of its loss-making China subsidiaries and the acquisition of COD, a software solutions provider for financial institutions in Thailand. This has led further to the group recording NP of RM2m (surging 80% YoY) in its recent 1Q13 results, which is already half of its FY12 full-year earnings. This was on the back of a +42% YoY rise in the revenue with an improved EBITDA margin of 16.2% from 14.2% in 1Q12.

E-payment market is lucrative.

GHLS’ earnings could continue to see further uptrend momentum with its continued penetration into the low usage of credit card/debit card and loyalty porgrammes in Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines. The ratios of credit card transactions-to-population in Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia stood at only 5.8x, 1.1x and 11.2x respectively compared to Singapore’s ratio of 46.3x. This implies ample room for growth for GHLS given its exposure in these countries.

Growth to ride on Government’s programme.

Of noteworthy is that one the 10 EPPs identified under the government’s ETP i.e. EPP 4 (which emphasises on creating an integrated payment ecosystem), could give an edge to GHLS’ Malaysian business. As Malaysia aspires to become a chequeless economy and reduce its dependency on cash transactions to 63%, from currently c.91%, of the transaction frequency in 2020, this will encourage E-payment transactions, which is estimated to jump by 10-fold from 1.2b to 12.0b transactions per annum. This would certainly benefit GHL as the leading epayment solution provider in Malaysia.

Fair value at RM0.46.

We believe the group could achieve our FY13 NP projection of RM7.8m judging from its decent NP of RM2m in 1Q13 and the sustainable revenue growth in its shared and solution services. We value the stock at RM0.46/share @ 7.0x FY14 PER, which is at a 25% discount to the FBM Small Capital Index PER of 9.3x given its relatively small market cap and illiquidity concerns. We believe the stock has good potentials given its relatively cheap valuation and strong earnings prospect. The stock is also trading at an undemanding valuation of 5.0x forward PER now compared to its regional peers’ PER of 15.6x.

Support >>> 0.30 sen / 0.28 sen

Resistance >>> 0.33 sen / 0.35 sen

 

Recommend Buy Target 0.46 sen

A reasonably sound mid to longterm investment for a @30 sen pennystock.

Not recommended for contra tradings.

 

GOOD LUCK

FKLI to test 1720/17 Support soon

Market Previews

Locally, the FBM KLCI shed 0.55 percent to settle at 1728.64. Losses were in correlation with faltering bourses around the globe which were led by the steep sell-off in Chinese shares. Stocks in China extended a bear market decline on concern that tight credit will deepen the nation’s economic slowdown.

Heavyweight losers locally were stocks from the consumer, banking and energy industries, namely UMW Holding, Hong Leong Bank, Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, Ambank, Sapura Kencana, PETRONAS Gas and Petronas Chemical. Futures were still traded at a premium of circa 2 point above its underlying cash market.

 

Technicals

Futures prices wilted 0.49 percent to close at 1730.50. Trading activities formed an inverted black hammer, which is considered a bottom reversal sign. Moreover, prices settled below its 20 and 50 day moving averages for the second consecutive day, signaling price weakness. Hence, expect technical buying to push prices upwards today to test its 50 day moving average as bottom feeders take advantage of weak prices.

 

Technical indicators:

 MACD= Negative, ADX= Positive

 

 

 

 

Intraday technical support & resistance for 25th June 2013

 

 1st support 1,720-17; 2nd support 1,700

 1st resistance 1,740, 2nd resistance 1,745-50

Recommendations

Traders can attempt a LONG FKLI at Support 1720/17 with a cutloss at 1710

FBM KLCI in danger of closing bullish GE 13 gap

Bursa Malaysia shares slumped in line with regional losses led by China which tumbled 6.3% amid concerns a credit crunch and scaling back of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve will hurt economic growth. The KLCI fell 17.66 points to settle near session lows at 1,738.19, off an early high of 1,756.02, as losers trashed gainers 797 to 121 on active trade totaling 1.67bn shares worth RM2.18bn.

Concerns over faltering economic growth in China due to a credit crunch and foreign fund flows back to the US should continue to adversely impact near-term sentiment. Hence, there could be further downward correction for the index to close the post 13GE gap-up with next support coming in at 1,718, the high prior to 13GE.

 

More significant retracement supports of the 1,597 low (7/2/13) to 1,826 high (6/5/13) are at 1,711 (50%FR) and 1,685 (61.8%FR) matching the 3 May low.

 

Immediate resistance stays at 1,772 (23.6%FR), with next resistance at 1,792, followed by the 1,800 psychological level.

 

HAPPY TRADING

Daily Charting of the FBM KLCI 24 June 2013

HAPPY TRENDING

List of Oversold & Overbought Stocks 24 June 2013

GOOD LUCK

FCPO : Better Export Numbers Expected Today, Prices Sustainable

Fundamental

Palm oil settled slightly higher as estimates of slowed domestic production and higher demand lead to positive price outlook.

Positive undertone in the competing soyoil in Asian trading hours coupled with the significant rise in Indonesian palm oil exports in May, helped strengthened sentiment which continued to hold the market firm. In addition, weaker Malaysian ringgit was seen as another supportive influence.

Meanwhile, investors will look closely on June 1-20 day export estimates out later today. NYMEX crude retreated alongside the external markets as US Federal Reserve signals on reducing bond purchases later this year sparked selling across equity and commodity markets. Additional pressure stemmed from an unexpected build up in US crude inventories according to EIA weekly report, contrasted with earlier API report that showed a decline. US soyoil soared on lower forecast of soybean plantings and yield in both US and Argentina.

Expect palm oil futures to trade higher in anticipation of an encouraging export figures to be released today.


Technicals

Futures gained 4 points to settle at 2472. Prices opened lower tracking overnight weakness in CBOT soyoil and Dalian palm oil. Futures were then traded with a downward bias throughout the morning session within narrow range as investors opted to be cautious.

 

However, futures recovered on speculative buying which lifted prices to revisit 3-month high and towards positive territories into the close. Formation of a larger white candle indicates a stronger buying force in the current uptrend. Expect positive fundamental outlook and technical strength to keep the buying momentum.

 

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive

Intraday technical support & resistance for 20th June 2013

1st support 2,450; 2nd support 2,435-20

1st resistance 2,480; 2nd resistance 2,500

As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2450 and 2500 respectively.

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2450.

FCPO : Optimistic Upside Ahead of Ramadan Month

HOURLY CHART CONTINUES MID-MAY REBOUND

ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 

GOOD LUCK

Daily Money Flow of FBMKLCI Top 30 Stocks 11062013

 

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Formulation

If previous change (A) + current change (B) > 0, then DMF = “IN”; AND if (A) + (B) < 0, then DMF = “OUT”.

Money Flow (MF) Calculation
The value of money flow is set to zero at the start of the trading day. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade (the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close). If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade (price times number of shares) is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions (inflows, buys) are done on upticks; subtractions (outflows, sells) are done on downticks.

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Interpretation

In general, money flow trends confirm price trends. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change. For example, a

falling stock price with a positive money flow (IN) can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow (OUT) implies potential

correction in the stock price.

GOOD LUCK

 

富时大马综合指数 11062013

GOOD LUCK

Selected Oversold Overbought Stocks 07 June 2013

For your perusal .............

 GOOD LUCK

Daily Money Flow of the Construction Sector x 30 Stocks 05 June 2013

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Formulation

If previous change (A) + current change (B) > 0, then DMF = “IN”; AND if (A) + (B) < 0, then DMF = “OUT”.

Money Flow (MF) Calculation

The value of money flow is set to zero at the start of the trading day. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade (the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close). If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade (price times number of shares) is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions (inflows, buys) are done on upticks; subtractions (outflows, sells) are done on downticks.

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Interpretation

In general, money flow trends confirm price trends. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change. For example, a falling stock price with a positive money flow (IN) can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow (OUT) implies potential correction in the stock price.

GOOD LUCK

FBMKLCI Top 30 Stocks Money Flow Data Compilations 04 June 2013

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Formulation

If previous change (A) + current change (B) > 0, then DMF = “IN”; AND if (A) + (B) < 0, then DMF = “OUT”.

Money Flow (MF) Calculation

The value of money flow is set to zero at the start of the trading day. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade (the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close). If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade (price times number of shares) is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions (inflows, buys) are done on upticks; subtractions (outflows, sells) are done on downticks.

Daily Money Flow (DMF) Interpretation

In general, money flow trends confirm price trends. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change. For example, a falling stock price with a positive money flow (IN) can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow (OUT) implies potential

correction in the stock price.

GOOD LUCK