FCPO : Better Export Numbers Expected Today, Prices Sustainable

Fundamental

Palm oil settled slightly higher as estimates of slowed domestic production and higher demand lead to positive price outlook.

Positive undertone in the competing soyoil in Asian trading hours coupled with the significant rise in Indonesian palm oil exports in May, helped strengthened sentiment which continued to hold the market firm. In addition, weaker Malaysian ringgit was seen as another supportive influence.

Meanwhile, investors will look closely on June 1-20 day export estimates out later today. NYMEX crude retreated alongside the external markets as US Federal Reserve signals on reducing bond purchases later this year sparked selling across equity and commodity markets. Additional pressure stemmed from an unexpected build up in US crude inventories according to EIA weekly report, contrasted with earlier API report that showed a decline. US soyoil soared on lower forecast of soybean plantings and yield in both US and Argentina.

Expect palm oil futures to trade higher in anticipation of an encouraging export figures to be released today.


Technicals

Futures gained 4 points to settle at 2472. Prices opened lower tracking overnight weakness in CBOT soyoil and Dalian palm oil. Futures were then traded with a downward bias throughout the morning session within narrow range as investors opted to be cautious.

 

However, futures recovered on speculative buying which lifted prices to revisit 3-month high and towards positive territories into the close. Formation of a larger white candle indicates a stronger buying force in the current uptrend. Expect positive fundamental outlook and technical strength to keep the buying momentum.

 

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive

Intraday technical support & resistance for 20th June 2013

1st support 2,450; 2nd support 2,435-20

1st resistance 2,480; 2nd resistance 2,500

As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2450 and 2500 respectively.

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2450.

FCPO : Optimistic Upside Ahead of Ramadan Month

HOURLY CHART CONTINUES MID-MAY REBOUND

ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 

GOOD LUCK

FCPO : Technical Analysis 17 Apr 2013

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis
 The FCPO active month contract ended off low on Tuesday due to electronic soybean oil prices traded sharply higher during the Asian trading session had supported the FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was flat at 2,301.

 Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle has been formed on Tuesday where it indicated that buying interest emerged at the intraday low level. During the trading session, the FCPO price had tested the intraday first support level but it did not break below that level. If the price is able to stay above this level in the coming days, there is a high possibility it may rise further.

 Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

 MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 17/04/2013

 1st support 2,285; 2nd support 2,228-15

 1st resistance 2,340; 2nd resistance 2,380

Recommendations

Sell Into any Rebound High 

FCPO >>> Trading Only When BREAKOUT, North or South

Can It Gets Any Simpler Than This???

FCPO Daily technical analysis: The FCPO active month contract ended lower on Friday due to bad export figures released by ITS and SGS which had weighed on the market sentiment. Moreover, investors also booked some of their profits ahead of long weekend. At the close, the FCPO price dropped 36 pts to 2,445.

Based on the daily chart, a negative candle had been formed on Friday where it indicated price had been pressured throughout the day. As we can see in the chart, the FCPO price had retreated after it had failed to break above the resistance line as drawn in the chart. To rise further, it needs to break and stay above the resistance line. Otherwise, it may fall back.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical Indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive,

Intraday Technical Support & Resistance for 29th Jan 2013:

1st support 2,430; 2nd support 2,404-2377

1st resistance 2,488; 2nd resistance 2,525-50

GOODLUCK2ALL

FCPO Commentaries and Technical Analysis 18 Oct 2012

FCPO Daily Commentary & Technical Analysis

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Wednesday as electronic soybean oil prices traded higher during the Asian trading session which had underpinned the FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was up 5 pts or 0.20% to 2,471.

Based on the daily chart, the FCPO price traded in a narrow range on Wednesday and it had formed a small negative candle. As we can see in the chart, the trend is still positive as long as the FCPO price is able to stay above the level of 2,360. On the other hand, the price could linger in between the range of 2360-2529 and to rise further, it need to break and closes above the level of 2530.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. Meanwhile, MACD line is crossing above the signal line where the positive sentiment could be building up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

MACD= Positive, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 18th Oct 2012

1st support 2440-2400; 2nd support 2360

1st resistance 2530; 2nd resistance 2575

GOODLUCK

FCPO Daily Chart Technical Outlook 13 Sept 2012

 

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis, Commentaries

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Wednesday as electronic soybean oil prices traded strongly up during the trading session which boosted the local market sentiment. At the close, the FCPO price was up 11 pts or 0.38% to 2,930.

Based on the daily chart, a positive candle with long lower wick formed on Wednesday where it indicated that continued buying interest buoyed the FCPO price. The price rebounded after it had tested for the third time the psychological level of 2,900 but it managed to close above that level when market close despite it broke below that level during the trading session. Since it is able to close above the psychological level of 2,900, there is a high possibility it may want to cover the upper gap. So the upside resistance level, we pegged at 2978-2,990 levels. Meanwhile, the downside first support we set it at 2,900 then follow by 2,874.

Referring to the MACD Histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. Meanwhile, the MACD line crosses below the signal line where the bearish sentiment will be building up in the near term. We should monitor closely the change in the MACD line. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 13th Sept 2012:

1st support 2900-74; 2nd support 2838

1st resistance 2970-90; 2nd resistance 3030

FCPO Benchmark Intraday Support / Resistance Chart

CPO Trading Range To Magnify

 

GOODLUCK & HAPPY TRADING

CPO Weekly Price Forcaste Daily Chart 27 >>> 31 Aug 2012

CPO Prices Envisage to Trade Range Bound For Week

GOODLUCK & HAPPY TRENDING

Robust Demands Boost CPO >>> Mild Resistance Seen @ 3100

FCPO Daily technical analysis:

 
The FCPO active month contract ended sharply higher and it was able to maintain its upward posture throughout the day as the market sentiment was boosted by positive palm oil export figure released by ITS.

Moreover, tight supply outlook for vegetable oil markets had pushed up the FCPO price rose to nearly 9.2% from the lowest level in just three days. At the close, the FCPO price was up 116 pts or 3.92% to 3,078.

From the daily chart, price gapped higher once it opened as it was buoyed by overnight CBOT soybean oil price soared more than 3%. As we can see in the chart, a long positive candle formed on Wednesday where it indicated that buyers were aggressive throughout the day. Trend remains positive and this was also confirmed by the MACD indicator. However, there are two downside gaps left uncovered at the moment. Since it had successfully formed up a double bottom pattern, the next step is to keep an eye whether it is able to form up a ‘W’ shape in the long term trend.

Referring to the MACD Histogram, it successfully builds up in the positive zone. Meanwhile, the MACD line is crossing above the signal line where the bullish sentiment is building up in the medium term. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Positive

ADX= Positive

Intraday technical support & resistance for 23rd Aug 2012:

1st support 3000

2nd support 2960-30

1st resistance 3130

2nd resistance 3170-3195

FCPO Daily Chart >>> 14 Aug 2012

CPO To Hammer Out a Support

Before Head On Clash With Bears

HAPPY TRENDING

GOODLUCK2ALL

FCPO Daily >>> Fundamental / Technical Views 05 Apr 2012

Fundamental
Palm oil prices touched its highest in 13-months on Wednesday, as speculation of a tightening soybean crop in the coming months continue to paint a bullish picture for the tropical oil. 

Overnight crude oil fell by 2 percent, as a higher-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. US soyoil rose, buoyed by concerns over reduction in soybean supplies in South America. Expect futures to trade range bound with a downwards bias on the back of dwindling global sentiment after the Fed announced the unlikelihood of monetary stimulus to prop up the economy in the future.

Technicals
Futures settled at 3557, up 24 points. Futures trading was seen in the formation of a short-bodied white candle, indicating a bullish outlook as gains in the morning session remain consolidated throughout the day. Prices edged higher and the MACD continued on its bullish divergence journey. Technically speaking, indicators are showing bullishness in the market, however investors may be inclined to book profits after markets were spooked from the prospect of reduced liquidity in global markets.

Overnight Leads
Soybean futures market closed higher on Wednesday after back-and-forth session lifted by
concerns about shrinking crops in South America

As such, support and resistance can be pegged at 3500 and 3570.

Intraday Trading Strategy

Aggressive trader may short with a stop on or above 3574.

CPO Futures Preview 15 Feb 2012

Fundamental
Palm oil prices rose on Tuesday, on the back of the rally in US soybeans as investors worried about the adverse weather conditions in South America affecting crop yields. In addition, the weakening of the Ringgit against the dollar spurred demand for the tropical oil. 

Overnight crude oil fell, tracking weaker retail sales figures in the US, as well as fresh concerns on Europe over a potential downgrade of its triple-A ratings for France, Britain and Austria. On the other hand, US soyoil rose to a near four-month high yesterday, due to production concerns in Brazil and signs of fresh US export demand. Expect futures to trade range bound with upwards bias today as lingering European issues may counter the adverse weather conditions in South America.

Overnight Leads
US soybean futures end mostly higher, with old crop contracts rallying to nearly four-month highs.
Soybean futures rose for the third consecutive trading day, fueled by worries about hot, dry
conditions in southern Brazil leading to lower crop yields, analysts say.

Technicals
Futures closed at 3205.0, up 2.36 percent. Futures managed to settle above psychological level of 3200 depicted by a long white candle as strong buying interest seen throughout the day. A sustained break above this level would likely see futures head towards testing 3240. The MACD reaffirmed the bullish outlook as it crossed its 8-day moving average on a bullish divergence. As such, support and resistance can be pegged at 3185 and 3240 respectively.

Strategy : Aggressive trade may long with a stop on below 3185.

HAPPY TRADING 

CPO Chart

Rising US Dollar to cap Crude & CPO Upside

 SUPPORT 

2981

3000

RESISTANCE

SMA 14 >>> 3065

SMA 31 >>> 3086

SMA 21 >>> 3110

HAPPY TRADING 

Crude Palm Oil Slips On Profit-Taking, US, Europe Worries

CPO futures ended lower on previous Friday but manage to finished the week positively. Tracking the performance of Soya oil, palm oil market took a dip on morning and afternoon session but the slump were limited by positive export figures announce by cargo surveyors ITS and SGS. 

ITS reported that Malaysia July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 752,047 Tons, Up 12% On Month while SGS announced July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 731,842 Tons, +4.6%. Market does not re-act to these news until the late afternoon session where the benchmark Sept start to bounce back after it has fell down to 3,115 level. The benchmark Sept saw a swift rebound right after it hit that low to 3,138 as Buyers step in to accumulate Long position due to temporary oversold condition. Palm oil market is likely to recover further as volume rose steadily when the market goes up, a basic condition to identify genuine market movement and to filter out false direction. 

Technically, the benchmark Sept had breakout from a congestion period judging from daily chart, this event might caused the market to have a major rebound. The highlighted eclipse plus green horizontal line is likely serve a base or major support for the time being.  

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell Monday, with profit-taking kicking in after earlier gains, as the market took cues from the weakness in other commodities.

The new benchmark October CPO on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 1.2% lower at MYR3,078 a metric ton, after trading between MYR3,068 and MYR3,140/ton. Sept contract closed at 3085 down 31.

HAPPY TRADING

Palm Oil Rising On Soya Oil Recovery

Positive Momentum Drives CPO 2% Higher
CPO market re-act positively to overnight Soya oil recovery which rose about 2% higher on Wednesday. Soya bean and oil were on the rising due to production concern on certain states.The USDA is showing tight grain stocks owing to rising biofuel use spurred concern over the prospect limited food supplies. The report shows that corn stocks have hovered near 15-year lows for longer than expected due the grain's use in making ethanol, lifting vegetable oils that are also used in other competing renewable fuels.

These events are likely to have positive spill over effect to palm oil prices as it tend to track the prices of other vegetable oils as well. It seems that market totally ignore the record high supplies and bad export data announce on the 10th July.

Technically, the benchmark Sept has a small break out on the opening session but it was covered hours later that signifies solid Bullish expectation on palm oil prospect. The solid positive momentum on palm oil market is undeniable yesterday when the benchmark Sept manage to breached above previous high @ 3,138 level and closed RM62 higher 3,144 level, the highest since 30th June.

Daily Pivot Point

R2= 3168

R1= 3156

S1= 3120

S2= 3096

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures >>> Outlook 14 July 2011

CPO Inventory To Cap Prices 
It was clear that CPO bulls were in charge the whole session yesterday. For this week, the technical reading on the chart have been tricky when the market dips due to overwhelming stocks concern (on Tuesday) after the benchmark Sept was anticipated to recover after it hit above 3,100 level past week. To many surprises, the benchmark Sept manage to reach an important resistance level to observe. 


Bottom line, market is going to move extensively (either way) due to the record high open interest on palm oil market.

If the market kept on recovering extensively, more Short holder will be force to shed their positions big time, vice versa. It was interesting to see, Sellers steps in to accumulate or initiate new positions while Long holders cover their holding when the market rose up to 3,095 level yesterday. 


Nonetheless, for the market to sustain these positive momentum, it is (Sept contract) best for it close above the resistance trend line at least for a session.  For today, resistance is pegged at 3,100 while support is located around 3,059 level.

Daily Pivot Point

R2=3117

R1=3099

S1=3059

S2=3037

ZLBT Trade Strategy

Aggresive SHORT with stop @ close above 3120

Short Target 3050, 3020, 3000, 2985

Disclaimer

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

FCPO Fundamentals + Technicals 17 June 2011

Fundamental
Palm oil slumped to five weeks low yesterday on concerns inventories, already at sixteen months high, would rise further to level above 2 mil tonnes. Investors worried that higher export demand will not be enough to offset improving output as the tropical oil recover from its low production yield period during the past two years. Overnight crude oil rebounded on higher demand forecast from IEA and better jobless claims and housing data in US.

Soy oil however settled lower in tandem with soybeans amid sell off in boarder grains market as external uncertainties prompted investors to reduce positions in riskier assets. Expect futures continue to trade under pressure today weighed by spillover weakness from soy oil as well as absence of fresh supportive factors from local front.

Technicals
Futures erased all its current week’s gain and settled at day’s low to conjure a long black candle. Daily RSI is posing towards oversold territory but unlikely to create attention just yet as MACD bearish divergence likely to haunt investors along with expectation of higher stocks and production.

Look for futures to trade lower to test its June’s low of 3148 with support and resistance pegged at 3145 and 3250.

1^st support level 3145

1^st resistance level 3250

ZLBT Trade Strategy

Aggressive trade may short with stop on close above 3360.

CPO Fundamental + Technical Midday Outlook

Fundamental
Palm oil settled higher yesterday on encouraging June 1 - 15 days export data and expectation for export to further improve towards Ramadan festive month. Nevertheless, gains were capped by lingering concerns over escalating production and inventories coupled with uncertainties in external markets. Overnight crude oil slumped to settle at the lowest since February as European debt crisis and worse than expected manufacturing data in US outweighed falling crude stocks to pressure prices lower. Soy oil however managed to end higher in tandem with soybeans with investors shifting focus back to uncertainties in soy planting session. Expect futures to trade under pressure today along with weakness in external markets while investors likely to stay sideline in the absence of fresh supportive factors.

Technicals
Futures continued the rebound from its one month low and traded higher to form the second higher high, higher low long white candle. Diverging MACD still persist and likely to keep sellers safeguard the resistance of 3335. Technically, look for futures to trade range bound with support and resistance pegged at 3235 and 3335 respectively.


ZLBT Trade Strategy
Aggressive trade may short with stop on close above 3360

CPO Preview 14 June 2011

Fundamental
Palm oil settled a choppy session higher on Monday, snapping five days of losses as investors deemed the 5.3% drop last week was overdone. Soy oil ended lower in tandem with soybeans with investors reduced long positions in absence of fresh supportive leads.
However, CPO trading today could be buoyed by improving export expectation and investors’ bargain hunting ahead of Ramadan month after previous week’s sell off.

Technicals
After five consecutive losing streaks, futures staged a technical rebound after hit intraday low of 3199 and settled in long white candle. Futures likely to test the immediate resistance of 3290, coincidently its Friday’s high and 50 days moving average. Bearish divergence in MACD deemed to keep sellers active. Support and resistance pegged at 3220 and 3300 respectively.

ZLBT Trading Strategy

Aggressive trade may short with stop on close above 3360.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

CPO Down In Selloff Amid Rising Production

CPO Output Pressure Prices

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange tumbled sharply Thursday following heavy selling due to lower soyoil and lingering concerns about rising stock levels

Analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly supply and demand report at 1230 GMT to cut the end 2010/11 estimate for U.S. corn stocks to 706 million bushels, from 730 million bushels forecast in May.

Benchmark August CPO on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.9% lower at MYR3,287 a metric ton. Prices fell to MYR3,213/ton, the lowest level since May 9, after CPO breached technical support at MYR3,290/ton, triggering a series of stop-loss orders, said a commodities broker at a Kuala Lumpur-based investment bank.

"We've been down a couple of days but there is a strong showing in crude," said one trader. "People are taking this as an opportunity to cover positions because it offers protection against the USDA tonight. 

"The turnaround in weather problems in the U.S. has only occurred in the last few days, which will not be taken into account in the USDA numbers." 

Traded volume for the benchmark month stood at 4,278 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus 11,605 lots on Wednesday. On Wednesday, benchmark prices slipped to a three week low at 3,313 ringgit. 

U.S. soyoil for July delivery and China's most-active January 2012 soybean oil were steady. 

In related markets, Brent crude rose to $118, after Saudi Arabia failed to convince OPEC to raise output targets and data showed U.S. crude stocks fell sharply last week.

On a busy data calendar this week, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is due to release stocks, export and production numbers on Friday. 

Stocks in Malaysia are seen rising to a 16-month high in May as production jumps, although traders are waiting to see if cargo surveyors show strong demand from buyers eager to restock on the current price correction. 

 "Export rumours will come out later today," said another trader. "It's a flip of a coin." 

 

"Any number below 1.6 (million) would be considered on the friendly side," he added on stock levels. 

On Friday cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance are scheduled to issue June 1-10 palm oil export numbers. 

 "I see prices moving north," said a palm oil analyst on thsecond half of 2011. "There is no room for any setback in production, so anything that crops up -- like weather -- will be a positive catalyst for prices. 

 "In the short term we will probably see some easing, but all depends on the progress of the U.S. soybean plantings ... overall, I don't see CPO prices going below the 3,000 ringgit level."

ZLBT Trading Strategy

Sell Into Strength