FCPO : Better Export Numbers Expected Today, Prices Sustainable

Fundamental

Palm oil settled slightly higher as estimates of slowed domestic production and higher demand lead to positive price outlook.

Positive undertone in the competing soyoil in Asian trading hours coupled with the significant rise in Indonesian palm oil exports in May, helped strengthened sentiment which continued to hold the market firm. In addition, weaker Malaysian ringgit was seen as another supportive influence.

Meanwhile, investors will look closely on June 1-20 day export estimates out later today. NYMEX crude retreated alongside the external markets as US Federal Reserve signals on reducing bond purchases later this year sparked selling across equity and commodity markets. Additional pressure stemmed from an unexpected build up in US crude inventories according to EIA weekly report, contrasted with earlier API report that showed a decline. US soyoil soared on lower forecast of soybean plantings and yield in both US and Argentina.

Expect palm oil futures to trade higher in anticipation of an encouraging export figures to be released today.


Technicals

Futures gained 4 points to settle at 2472. Prices opened lower tracking overnight weakness in CBOT soyoil and Dalian palm oil. Futures were then traded with a downward bias throughout the morning session within narrow range as investors opted to be cautious.

 

However, futures recovered on speculative buying which lifted prices to revisit 3-month high and towards positive territories into the close. Formation of a larger white candle indicates a stronger buying force in the current uptrend. Expect positive fundamental outlook and technical strength to keep the buying momentum.

 

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive

Intraday technical support & resistance for 20th June 2013

1st support 2,450; 2nd support 2,435-20

1st resistance 2,480; 2nd resistance 2,500

As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2450 and 2500 respectively.

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2450.

FCPO : Optimistic Upside Ahead of Ramadan Month

HOURLY CHART CONTINUES MID-MAY REBOUND

ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm ITS REPORT — Malaysian palm oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 oil product export for June 1-15 up 18% to 709,860 metric tons from 599,300 metric tons shipped during May 1-15 

GOOD LUCK

CPO rising up for Awal Ramadan

FCPO flashing positive signals ahead of Ramadan

FCPO Aug 2013 staged a breakout in the weekly chart today gaining RM9 to RM2380. Intraday volume however fell to 10157 compared to last Friday's 17858 contracts. In the Daily Chart, 3rd month Aug contract price is tagging the SMA 60 -days while daily prices are pushing the Bollinger Upper Band into expansion mode.

Both daily technicals mentioned are positives and could possibly be preludes for better sentiments in anticipation of higher demands ahead of the fasting month of Ramadan which falls on the 10th July.

Trading Strategy

BUY ON WEAKNESS 

FCPO >>> Commentary and Technical Analysis 27 May 2013

FCPO Daily technical analysis:
The FCPO active month contract managed to end in the positive territory after it swung between gains and losses on Thursday. At the close, the FCPO price added 11 pts or 0.47% to 2,370.

A white candle with long lower shadow was formed as prices traded lower but were lifted by aggressive buyers in late trading hours to erase losses and finished at near intraday
high. Prices closed firm above 20 and 50 day moving averages, a sign of the domination of bulls in the market. MACD also supports the bullish trend signal by staying on its bullish journey and rising steadily. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2342 and 2400 respectively.

Based on the daily chart, a positive candle with long lower wick has been formed on Thursday where it indicated the FCPO price was supported at the intraday low level.

During the trading session, the FCPO fell to as low as 2,342 due to uncertainty in the external markets which weighed on the market sentiment. As we can see in the chart, the price is unable to break above the level of 2,380 on Thursday. To rise further, it needs to break and closes above that mentioned level.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:
MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive,

Intraday technical support & resistance for 27th May 2013:
1st support 2,342; 2nd support 2,330-00
1st resistance 2,380-90; 2nd resistance 2,400-15

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2342.

FCPO, FKLI Previews and Commentaries 14 May 2013

Fundamental
Palm oil prices tumbled on profit taking after having reached one-month high in early trading hours. Pressure also came as lower domestic inventories outweighed by high stock level at China and India which triggered concerns about limited palm oil demand from these major importers. NYMEX crude posted losses on third consecutive trading day on China’s oil demand which fell to 8-month low in April as industrial output expanded at slower pace than expectation.

Prices received additional pressure after robust US retail sales sent dollar higher as it would bring negative impact to commodity prices. Investor now await cue from API oil data due later today and EIA data on Wednesday. Despite the poor weekly soybean exports, US soyoil ended higher on strong cash market and spillover effect from short covering rally in corn.

Expect CPO futures to trade higher as palm oil trading at discount to other edible oils amid speculation over a possible drawdown in inventories in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, to a 6-month low as consumption increased.

Overnight Leads

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Monday on firm cash markets and

tightening U.S. supplies, lifting the spot contract to a six-month high, traders said.

Technicals
Futures settled at 2310, down 9 points. A black candle was formed as prices opened higher but upward movement was not sustainable, as stronger sellers have taken control of the market for the day. However, prices remained position above 20 day moving averages and MACD on
its bullish journey, therefore bulls remain in firm on technical grounds. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2300 and 2335 respectively.

Technical indicators:
 MACD= Positive, ADX= Neutral,

Intraday technical support & resistance for 14/05/2013:
 1st support 2,300; 2nd support 2,270
 1st resistance 2,335; 2nd resistance 2,380-2400

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2270.

FCPO : Technical Analysis 17 Apr 2013

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis
 The FCPO active month contract ended off low on Tuesday due to electronic soybean oil prices traded sharply higher during the Asian trading session had supported the FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was flat at 2,301.

 Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle has been formed on Tuesday where it indicated that buying interest emerged at the intraday low level. During the trading session, the FCPO price had tested the intraday first support level but it did not break below that level. If the price is able to stay above this level in the coming days, there is a high possibility it may rise further.

 Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

 MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 17/04/2013

 1st support 2,285; 2nd support 2,228-15

 1st resistance 2,340; 2nd resistance 2,380

Recommendations

Sell Into any Rebound High 

CPO Analysis For The Week Ahead 08 Apr 2013

CPO Technical Outlook

The benchmark June contract was consolidating this week and some trad­ers were cautious ahead of key fundamental reports and preferred to stay on the side-lines.

Last week’s palm oil price movement showed that the market was directionless while waiting for the fun­damental reports next week to gauge on the next price movement.

The benchmark level of RM2,360 will continue to be monitored to determine if the palm oil prices could be supported at this level.

Any price break below RM2,340 would attract more technical selling and long liquidation in the market.

Resistance would be pegged at RM2,430 while support will be set at RM2,340.

In addition, the increase worries on the bird flu outbreak in China also con­tributed the fall in soybean prices which could reduce the demand in feeds. 

Recommendations 

Sell Into Strength 

FCPO >>> Trading Only When BREAKOUT, North or South

Can It Gets Any Simpler Than This???

FCPO Daily technical analysis: The FCPO active month contract ended lower on Friday due to bad export figures released by ITS and SGS which had weighed on the market sentiment. Moreover, investors also booked some of their profits ahead of long weekend. At the close, the FCPO price dropped 36 pts to 2,445.

Based on the daily chart, a negative candle had been formed on Friday where it indicated price had been pressured throughout the day. As we can see in the chart, the FCPO price had retreated after it had failed to break above the resistance line as drawn in the chart. To rise further, it needs to break and stay above the resistance line. Otherwise, it may fall back.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical Indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive,

Intraday Technical Support & Resistance for 29th Jan 2013:

1st support 2,430; 2nd support 2,404-2377

1st resistance 2,488; 2nd resistance 2,525-50

GOODLUCK2ALL

FCPO Daily technical analysis 11/12/2012

CPO BEARS STILL IN CONTROL

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Monday due to stock growth slower-than-expected and SGS released the export figure which showed Malaysia palm oil export rose 0.4% in the first ten days which had boosted sentiment. At the close, the FCPO price was up 16 pts to 2,313.
Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle formed on Monday where it indicated that mild buying interest supported the FCPO price. During the trading session, price went down to as low as 2,288 but it did not break below the previous low level at 2,280. As we can see in the chart, the price still trading above the uptrend support line and to rise further, it need to break and close above the range resistance level at 2,320.

Referring to the MACD indicator, MACD line crossed below the signal line where the bearish sentiment could be building up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

MACD= Negative ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 11th Dec2012
1st support 2,280; 2nd support 2,250-20

1st resistance 2,320; 2nd resistance 2,350

 

HAPPY TRADING

FCPO Commentaries and Technical Analysis 18 Oct 2012

FCPO Daily Commentary & Technical Analysis

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Wednesday as electronic soybean oil prices traded higher during the Asian trading session which had underpinned the FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was up 5 pts or 0.20% to 2,471.

Based on the daily chart, the FCPO price traded in a narrow range on Wednesday and it had formed a small negative candle. As we can see in the chart, the trend is still positive as long as the FCPO price is able to stay above the level of 2,360. On the other hand, the price could linger in between the range of 2360-2529 and to rise further, it need to break and closes above the level of 2530.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. Meanwhile, MACD line is crossing above the signal line where the positive sentiment could be building up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

MACD= Positive, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 18th Oct 2012

1st support 2440-2400; 2nd support 2360

1st resistance 2530; 2nd resistance 2575

GOODLUCK

How To Choose A Futures Trading Broker

10 Tips On Choosing The Right Futures Broker

Here are 10 tips on knowing how to choose the right futures broker for you.

1. Expertise

You should always aim for a broker who has strong knowledge in the futures market. When you are engaging with a broker, you are not only engaging his services to put in an order for you, you are engaging his expertise and knowledge as well. Therefore it’s important to ask a broker what knowledge or strategy of assessment of the market he has. For example, does the representative know how to use technical orfundamental analysis? Is the representative well versed with the industry? A broker with a strong expertise background may help you to spot opportunities as well as prevent you from making further losses when the market is against you.

But before assessing the broker, you will need to do a little research on how to analyze the market using different indicators and analysis. You can then ask some subtle questions or make comments to see how the broker responds.

2. Track Record And Reputation

A great way to determine whether the futures broker is right for you is to look at his track record and reputation. You can do so by checking with Bursa Malaysia. You can check whether there are any ethics complaints about the broker or whether there are any disciplinary actions taken against the brokerage firm. You will want to find out because if the firm has treated the clients with questionable conducts, they may treat you the same way in the future. You will want to look for behavioral patterns.

You can also do a check at futures forum and ask about the services of different brokers. However, do keep in mind that this serves as a guidance and not as an absolute reference, because these are just opinions of other individuals.

3. Regulations And Policies

Ensure that the broker you choose follow regulations and policies from the authority, which in Malaysia will be Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. The futures broker should have someone overseeing compliance issues and matters. Ask who is in charge of the compliance and check for the background of the person in charge. This is to avoid unwanted and unclear disputes where both the futures broker and client may suffer.

4. Speed Of Execution

Although brokers have live streaming quotes on their trading platform, the question is still how fast can your representative execute your orders of entering into a position? Speed of execution is important especially if you are a day trader or using a 5 minutes chart. You will want the broker to lock in your position as soon as you give a clear order.

5. Commission Rates

Commission rate is one of the main considerations for choosing a futures broker, and even more so if you are trading a significant volume. However, know that although commission rates may vary among brokers, it is not necessary to choose the broker with the cheapest rate. Some brokers may charge a high commission rate if they are providing outstanding performance and services. But the performance and services should reflect the percentage of higher commission asked for. Of course this factor also depends on your own personal level of experience and level of involvement of trading futures.

6. Ease Of Accessibility

Find out how easy can you access your brokers. Especially when the market is busy and volatile, many traders are expecting to profit movement of the market. During then, will the broker firm have enough futures representatives to take your orders? If not, you may be missing on opportunities or losing more money than you should.

7. Honesty

It is extremely important that futures brokers have this trait of honesty. This is because brokers make commissions for every order that you trade. Thus, the more trades you place, the more money the broker gets. Therefore, be careful of brokers who are trying to push too hard for their own greed. Avoid the high sales pitch from these brokers and make sure they have your interest in mind.

8. Tools And Value Added Services

Find out what are the free services the futures broker is offering. Some may offer certain forms of free research, news, software, information, education and analysis tools. These value added tools and services are important as they will help you to cut short your learning curve very much as well as have a competitive advantage over other traders.

9. Customized Customer Service

Assess how the broker handles customer service. Every trader has different requirements of trading. Some are more risk averse than others. Some are looking at shorter terms of investing than others. Can the futures broker cater to your customized needs? Explain to the firm what are your expectations and requirements and check if they are able to provide the customized services you demand.

10. Chemistry

Some may find this a crucial point. Bear in mind that futures investing is a long term endeavor. Finding a comfortable broker is key in communicating. This is because communication can mean a difference in building your wealth or having your losses.

A Trading Plan >>> With 9 Questions & Sample Answers

TRADING PLAN SAMPLE

Let’s assume I am currently trading Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) market. The following is a brief example of my trading plan.

#1 Know Your Purpose

a) Why do you want to be a trader?

Sample Answer: As a source of extra income on top of my salary. I also enjoy it as I like to read and assess the financial markets and news.

b) What sort of trader are you?

Sample Answer: A passive trader, risk averse. I do not want to take unnecessary risk and will only enter into a trade if I am extremely confident on the trend direction.

c) What are your strengths and weaknesses?

Sample Answer: Strength may be able to spot opportunities using both technical and fundamental analysis. Weakness is that I may be too greedy and not stick to my exit strategy.

d) What are your income targets?

Sample Answer: My income target is RM2000 – RM3000 a month from trading FCPO.

#2 Trading Goals

a) What are your annual trading goals?

Sample Answer: My annual trading goals are such as mastering new trading strategies. This includes mastering more aggressive trading strategies that will give me a higher margin on profits and to trade on different time frames. I would also develop my own concrete strategies with a high probability of winning a trade.

b) What are your monthly trading goals?

Sample Answer: My monthly goals are to explore new trading systems and strategies. I will start paper trading with these new systems and strategies.

c) What are your weekly trading goals?

Sample Answer: To assess how I performed during the week and how did the market perform during the week. To be able to forecast how the following week perform based on the weekly outcome.

d) What are your daily trading goals?

Sample Answer: To be able follow my trading plan daily and stick to my strategies.

#3 Markets, Instruments and Timeframes

a) What markets will you trade?

Sample Answer: The Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)

b) Which instruments will you trade?

Sample Answer: The Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)

c) Which timeframes will you trade?

Sample Answer: Will start as a day trader, will close any positions before the market closes.

#4 Trading Tools

Questions to answer about your tools of the trade:

a) Which broker and trading platform will you use?

Sample Answer: AMFutures as my broker and use AMTrader as my platform.

b) Which software and data feeds will you use to trade?

Sample Answer: OSK188 online charting software. I also refer to OSK188 daily market commentaries, and websites such as cnn.com, cnbc.com, yahoo finance, google finance etc.

#5 Before Market Opens

a) What is your daily pre-market routine?

Sample Answer: Check on the news and assess yesterday’s market performance.

b) Have you analyzed yesterday’s trades?

Sample Answer: No/Yes, yesterday’s trade volume is unusually high due to the news release of the governments proposal for a crude palm oil export tax cut.

c) Do you have any overnight or open positions carry forward?

Sample Answer: No open positions at the moment.

d) What will you do today – hour by hour?

Sample Answer: Monitor the FCPO 15 minutes chart and enter positions based on my current trading strategy.

e) Which instruments are on your watch list?

Sample Answer: The Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)

#6 Risk & Money Management

Risk

a) What is your attitude towards risk?

Sample Answer: Risk adverse.

b) What is the strategy’s risk?

Sample Answer: Low risk, low return strategy.

c) What is the probability of a successful trade?

Sample Answer: High probability due to very short-term trading.

d) Where will you place your stop loss orders?

Sample Answer: At previous high or lows or at support / resistance.

e) When will you stop trading?

Sample Answer: When my stop loss is triggered.

Money Management

a) Which money management approaches will you utilize?

Sample Answer: I will trade about 10% to maximum 20% of my total funds.

b) Will you lock in profits?

Sample Answer: Yes, my objective is to have a gain of 10% in profits.

#7 Trade Strategies, Setups and Entries

a) Which strategies will you trade?

Sample Answer: I will use price breakouts to trade based on previous high and lows according to major support and resistance levels. I will watch for retracements as well.

b) Which signals will trigger your entry?

Sample Answer: Once it hits a major support or resistance levels, I will enter my positions.

#8 Exit Strategies

a) Losing trades - will you exit before your stop is hit?

Sample Answer: No, my stop loss is already very risk conservative, I will exit at my stop loss.

b) Winning trades – which signals will see you exit completely?

Sample Answer: My target is to make 10% in profit, so if I can gain 10% in profit, I will exit early.

#9 After the Market Closes

a) Have you recorded today’s trades?

Sample Answer: Yes/No, I was rushing, but I will record it tomorrow.

b) Did you execute your trades according to your plan?

Sample Answer: No/Yes, it is all according to plan.

c) Have you completed your trading journal?
 
Sample Answer: No/Yes, I have make notes in my trading journal.

NOTE: This is just an example of a trading plan. You may elaborate with more details and specifics according to your trading methodology.

GOOD LUCK

EOD FKLI, FCPO Daily Charts 09/10/2012

FKLI Support seen @ 1651.00

FCPO Resistance seen @ 2450

 

HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT Weekend Charts >>> DJIA, FKLI, FCPO 05 Oct 2012

Dow Tags Five-Year Best as Unemployment Takes Center Stage

 FKLI >>> Next candle could determine direction

 FCPO volatility could rule week ahead

HAPPY WEEKEND

FCPO Price Forecast For Week 01 - 05 October 2012

A Technical Oversold Rebound Is Imminent

But The Question Remains : How Much?

HAPPY TRADING

FCPO Daily Chart Technical Outlook 13 Sept 2012

 

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis, Commentaries

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Wednesday as electronic soybean oil prices traded strongly up during the trading session which boosted the local market sentiment. At the close, the FCPO price was up 11 pts or 0.38% to 2,930.

Based on the daily chart, a positive candle with long lower wick formed on Wednesday where it indicated that continued buying interest buoyed the FCPO price. The price rebounded after it had tested for the third time the psychological level of 2,900 but it managed to close above that level when market close despite it broke below that level during the trading session. Since it is able to close above the psychological level of 2,900, there is a high possibility it may want to cover the upper gap. So the upside resistance level, we pegged at 2978-2,990 levels. Meanwhile, the downside first support we set it at 2,900 then follow by 2,874.

Referring to the MACD Histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. Meanwhile, the MACD line crosses below the signal line where the bearish sentiment will be building up in the near term. We should monitor closely the change in the MACD line. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 13th Sept 2012:

1st support 2900-74; 2nd support 2838

1st resistance 2970-90; 2nd resistance 3030