FCPO : Better Export Numbers Expected Today, Prices Sustainable

Fundamental

Palm oil settled slightly higher as estimates of slowed domestic production and higher demand lead to positive price outlook.

Positive undertone in the competing soyoil in Asian trading hours coupled with the significant rise in Indonesian palm oil exports in May, helped strengthened sentiment which continued to hold the market firm. In addition, weaker Malaysian ringgit was seen as another supportive influence.

Meanwhile, investors will look closely on June 1-20 day export estimates out later today. NYMEX crude retreated alongside the external markets as US Federal Reserve signals on reducing bond purchases later this year sparked selling across equity and commodity markets. Additional pressure stemmed from an unexpected build up in US crude inventories according to EIA weekly report, contrasted with earlier API report that showed a decline. US soyoil soared on lower forecast of soybean plantings and yield in both US and Argentina.

Expect palm oil futures to trade higher in anticipation of an encouraging export figures to be released today.


Technicals

Futures gained 4 points to settle at 2472. Prices opened lower tracking overnight weakness in CBOT soyoil and Dalian palm oil. Futures were then traded with a downward bias throughout the morning session within narrow range as investors opted to be cautious.

 

However, futures recovered on speculative buying which lifted prices to revisit 3-month high and towards positive territories into the close. Formation of a larger white candle indicates a stronger buying force in the current uptrend. Expect positive fundamental outlook and technical strength to keep the buying momentum.

 

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive

Intraday technical support & resistance for 20th June 2013

1st support 2,450; 2nd support 2,435-20

1st resistance 2,480; 2nd resistance 2,500

As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2450 and 2500 respectively.

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2450.

CPO rising up for Awal Ramadan

FCPO flashing positive signals ahead of Ramadan

FCPO Aug 2013 staged a breakout in the weekly chart today gaining RM9 to RM2380. Intraday volume however fell to 10157 compared to last Friday's 17858 contracts. In the Daily Chart, 3rd month Aug contract price is tagging the SMA 60 -days while daily prices are pushing the Bollinger Upper Band into expansion mode.

Both daily technicals mentioned are positives and could possibly be preludes for better sentiments in anticipation of higher demands ahead of the fasting month of Ramadan which falls on the 10th July.

Trading Strategy

BUY ON WEAKNESS 

FCPO, FKLI Previews and Commentaries 14 May 2013

Fundamental
Palm oil prices tumbled on profit taking after having reached one-month high in early trading hours. Pressure also came as lower domestic inventories outweighed by high stock level at China and India which triggered concerns about limited palm oil demand from these major importers. NYMEX crude posted losses on third consecutive trading day on China’s oil demand which fell to 8-month low in April as industrial output expanded at slower pace than expectation.

Prices received additional pressure after robust US retail sales sent dollar higher as it would bring negative impact to commodity prices. Investor now await cue from API oil data due later today and EIA data on Wednesday. Despite the poor weekly soybean exports, US soyoil ended higher on strong cash market and spillover effect from short covering rally in corn.

Expect CPO futures to trade higher as palm oil trading at discount to other edible oils amid speculation over a possible drawdown in inventories in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, to a 6-month low as consumption increased.

Overnight Leads

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Monday on firm cash markets and

tightening U.S. supplies, lifting the spot contract to a six-month high, traders said.

Technicals
Futures settled at 2310, down 9 points. A black candle was formed as prices opened higher but upward movement was not sustainable, as stronger sellers have taken control of the market for the day. However, prices remained position above 20 day moving averages and MACD on
its bullish journey, therefore bulls remain in firm on technical grounds. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2300 and 2335 respectively.

Technical indicators:
 MACD= Positive, ADX= Neutral,

Intraday technical support & resistance for 14/05/2013:
 1st support 2,300; 2nd support 2,270
 1st resistance 2,335; 2nd resistance 2,380-2400

Strategy

Trade may long with a stop on or below 2270.

FCPO : Technical Analysis 17 Apr 2013

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis
 The FCPO active month contract ended off low on Tuesday due to electronic soybean oil prices traded sharply higher during the Asian trading session had supported the FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was flat at 2,301.

 Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle has been formed on Tuesday where it indicated that buying interest emerged at the intraday low level. During the trading session, the FCPO price had tested the intraday first support level but it did not break below that level. If the price is able to stay above this level in the coming days, there is a high possibility it may rise further.

 Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators:

 MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 17/04/2013

 1st support 2,285; 2nd support 2,228-15

 1st resistance 2,340; 2nd resistance 2,380

Recommendations

Sell Into any Rebound High 

FCPO >>> Trading Only When BREAKOUT, North or South

Can It Gets Any Simpler Than This???

FCPO Daily technical analysis: The FCPO active month contract ended lower on Friday due to bad export figures released by ITS and SGS which had weighed on the market sentiment. Moreover, investors also booked some of their profits ahead of long weekend. At the close, the FCPO price dropped 36 pts to 2,445.

Based on the daily chart, a negative candle had been formed on Friday where it indicated price had been pressured throughout the day. As we can see in the chart, the FCPO price had retreated after it had failed to break above the resistance line as drawn in the chart. To rise further, it needs to break and stay above the resistance line. Otherwise, it may fall back.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical Indicators:

MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive,

Intraday Technical Support & Resistance for 29th Jan 2013:

1st support 2,430; 2nd support 2,404-2377

1st resistance 2,488; 2nd resistance 2,525-50

GOODLUCK2ALL

FCPO Daily technical analysis 11/12/2012

CPO BEARS STILL IN CONTROL

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher on Monday due to stock growth slower-than-expected and SGS released the export figure which showed Malaysia palm oil export rose 0.4% in the first ten days which had boosted sentiment. At the close, the FCPO price was up 16 pts to 2,313.
Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle formed on Monday where it indicated that mild buying interest supported the FCPO price. During the trading session, price went down to as low as 2,288 but it did not break below the previous low level at 2,280. As we can see in the chart, the price still trading above the uptrend support line and to rise further, it need to break and close above the range resistance level at 2,320.

Referring to the MACD indicator, MACD line crossed below the signal line where the bearish sentiment could be building up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators

MACD= Negative ADX= Negative

Intraday technical support & resistance for 11th Dec2012
1st support 2,280; 2nd support 2,250-20

1st resistance 2,320; 2nd resistance 2,350

 

HAPPY TRADING

FCPO Prices Forecast For 10 - 14 September 2012

The Chinese & Indians Import Data Kept FCPO Afloat Today

ZL didn't bother to insert the SMA 200

The bulls live above & below the bears

HAPPY TRADING

FCPO Benchmark Intraday Support / Resistance Chart

CPO Trading Range To Magnify

 

GOODLUCK & HAPPY TRADING