More Multi-Year Highs for the Dow, SPX as Summertime Rally Continues

08 Sept 2012 Wall Street end the shortened week on a bullish note
U.S. stocks clung to the flatline and stayed near multiyear highs Friday as disappointment over the August jobs report was countered by hopes the gloomy data could give the Federal Reserve further reason to unleash a third round of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) drifted below breakeven before lunchtime, but battled its way back into the black in the last minutes of trading. With that, the blue-chip barometer secured a respectable return  of 1.65% for the week.

The markets will be laser focused on the Federal Reserve next week, anxiously awaiting word on whether the central bank will initiate another round of economic stimulus.

The Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets most Fed policy, is meeting Wednesday and Thursday and a statement is due at the end of the second day. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference Thursday afternoon.

Stock markets are all hoping for another round of quantitative easing, in which the Fed buys      U.S. securities in an effort to goose the stumbling U.S. economy. Friday’s dismal labor report which revealed that just 96,000 jobs were created in August only boosted hopes among investors for QE III.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI – 13,306.64) was rather flat all session long, but found itself up 14.6 points, or 0.1%, by the closing bell. The Dow posted its best daily settlement since December 2007. Half of the 30 components slipped into negative territory, with Kraft Foods Inc's (NASDAQ:KFT) 5.5% loss pacing the laggards. On the other hand, the 15 outperformers were led higher by Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) 5.4% gain. During the holiday-shortened week, the Dow enjoyed a 1.65% rise.

 

Adding 5.8 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,437.92) prolonged its stay in the black today and closed at a fresh four-year high. Plus, the SPX marked its best daily close since January 2008. For the week, the broad-market index climbed 2.2%.

 

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 3,136.42) enjoyed another multi-year high run, touching 3,139.61 in intraday action -- its loftiest price since mid-November 2000. And after the dust cleared, the tech-rich barometer eked out a fractional win. The COMP turned in the best weekly performance of its peers, rallying 2.3%.

For every stock sliding in New York Friday, more than two gained on the New York StockExchange, where nearly 680 million shares had traded. Composite volume reached 3.7 billion.

 

HAPPY WEEKEND

Ichimoku Analysis on Dow Jones Industrial Weekly 26 Mar 2012

Let's  look at the weekly DOW charts using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and it is clearly very bullish. Tenkan Sen (pink line) is above Kijun Sen (turquoise line), Chikou Span (green line) is above price and Kumo, and the future Kumo cloud is thickening and sloping up.

You will notice that the thick Kumo cloud supported prices during the last quarter of 2011, and ever since prices broke above the Kumo, there has been no u-turn. The bull run looks inclined to resume. 

However, there are two concerns for the bulls:

1. The Kumo cloud all the way into June 2012 is relatively thin, offering weak support.

2. Tenkan Sen is very far from Kijun Sen, the latter representing price equilibrium. Prices tend to retrace towards equilibrium, especially when the Kijun Sen is a flat horizontal line as pictured in the chart.

For the bulls, it is probably wiser to wait for a retracement to the Kijun Sen for a higher reward:risk bullish trade, while bears should wait for a breakdown below the Kumo cloud.  

If PM Najib is seeking a steady Malaysian economic outlook  timed for the imminent GE 13,  this  periodic DJIA chart will be a good call to dissolve Parlimen soon.

Another Peek Into Next Week

FBM KLCI Looks Formidable

But  DJIA Is Due For Correction

Can anyone imagine how the DJIA WEEKLY Elliot Wave Chart looks like now?

Clue >>> Wave 5 is almost in completion (hehehe)

Catalyst wise FBMKLCI still have the GE 13 factor looking forward.

What does  DJIA looks at next?

Earning reports are finishing. Euro zone rescue plan? 

That, my friends, had been factored in.

HAPPY WEEKEND 

Dow Weekly Bearish Divergence 01 Feb 2012

DJIA Weekly Shows Correction Due

Dow Jones Industrial Average is already in a primary up-trend, having completed a higher trough late last year, and is now testing the 2011 high of 12800. Retracement to 12300 and the rising trendline is likely. Respect would confirm the new up-trend, but a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of failure and a cross below zero would indicate reversal to a primary down-trend.

INEVITABLE  

A Peek Into The Week Ahead >>> On A Canter

Wall Street Week Ahead :

Key Jobs Report, Earnings & Data

ANALYSTS QUOTES

“The big news the last couple of weeks is the program they launched over in Europe, the lending facility to the banking system, seems to be working. The market seems unrattled.”

“This earnings season hasn’t been nearly as robust as the last couple; there’s a bias toward companies beating versus missing, which is reflecting a slow-growing economy.”

“We’ve had such a good run, one of the strongest we’ve had in a long time from the start of the year, so we’re overdue.”

“There are a lot of bullish surveys, which is usually a clear sign that things are going to correct.” 

“The program they launched over in Europe, the lending facility to the banking system, seems to be working, with yields on Spain and Italy’s sovereign debt making substantial moves in the right direction.” 

“We all know it’s just a matter of getting everyone lined up in terms of getting private investors to take a haircut, and here domestically, things have been headed in the right direction.” 

On negotiations of the Greece debt fiasco ..... "Important understandings were reached on legal and technical issues."

BSKL To Maintain Strong Risk Appetite 

Market expected to trend higher next week along with other regional markets

VIEWS & OPINIONS

"We view the dovish statement from the US Federal Reserve (that interest rates would remain exceptionally low until at least late 2014) was a positive surprise for investors."

 "Trading volume at the local bourse over the week was fairly heavy considering it being a holiday-shortened week, with many investors expected to return on Monday, the market is expected to be buoyant."

"The water dragon may rear it's head next week."

"We expect the Europeans to open the possibility of huge asset purchases to boost the global economy. Going forward, we believe the local equity market will maintain strong risk appetite, with commodities and emerging market currencies seeing strong demand."

"The local market would continue to be influenced by external events significantly despite local fundamentals remaining strong and speculative play ahead of the 13th general election." 

HAPPY WEEKEND & GONG XI FA CAI 

Ichimoku Analysis For SPX Weekly 25 Jan 2012

TO FURTHER ENLARGE 

Please right click on images & choose "OPEN"

or

"OPEN IN NEW TAB" 

HAPPY TRENDING 

Technical Analysis : DJIA and FBMKLCI 16 Dec 2011

Xmas Rally & Window Dressing To Counter Decline

The Dow closed slightly lower on Friday but remains above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,832. The Dow turned lower in the afternoon session wiping out early session gains as optimism over Europe's debt crisis fizzled after Fitch Ratings indicated that it might downgrade ratings of six European nations. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. 

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 11,231 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.   
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016.

Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 12,257.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 11,786.

Second support is November's low crossing at 11,231.

 Week-on-week the Dow is down 2.61% or 317.87 points

 FTSE Malaysia Composite Index (KLCI) rose to 1472.76 points on Friday which was the intraday high, but in the moment before the close, it went down, taking the composite index to 1466.22 points but still up 2.11 points or 0.14% for the session. 

 Arrow A, as shown in the chart, the KLCI is still at EMA 14, 21, 31 days hovering around neither indicating bullish nor bearish. Resistance levels remain at 1,500 points and 200-day moving average support level is maintained at 1430 points.

The arrow shown in Figure B, the total volume shares increased by 14.44%, which is slightly higher breakthrough volume of the 40-day volume moving average (VMA). Technically, if the volume continues to increase and maintain above the 40-day average trading volume, the general outlook will indicate improving sentiments of the overall investment climate. However, the shares that are actively traded on Friday are still low-priced items consisting mostly pennystocks & warrants, As such, the current increase in volume does not truly reflects the recovery of bluechips or big cap stocks investment in KLSE.

The arrow shown in Figure C, the Stochastic continue to rise, but is still confined between 30% and 70% level This means that the KLCI is moving within a narrow tight range short-term pattern.

Overall, the KLCI is still at the current point between 1430 to 1500 consolidation pattern and the direction remains uncertain. The KLCI pattern of long-term trend, it is still maintained in the bearish bias pattern, because the KLCI is closer to the 200-day moving average line support.

HAPPY WEEKEND 

Daily / Weekly Technical Analysis : FBM KLCI 05 Dec 2011

The FBMKLCI : Daily & Weekly Technical Outlook

A pullback necessary for further support  

The blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI)

surged 57.47 points, or 4% week-on-week to settle at 1,489.02, with CIMB (+46sen), Genting

Bhd (+84sen), Maybank (+35sen) and Tenaga (+30sen) contributing more than two-fifths of

the index’s rally. Average daily traded volume and value improved moderately to 1.55bn

shares and RM1.68bn respectively, compared with the 1.45bn shares and RM1.1bn average

the previous week.

Trading range for the KLCI ballooned to 65.32 points last week, compared with the 27.79-

point range the previous week, as blue chips pushed the index up to flirt with the 1,500 level.

For the week, the FBM-EMAS Index rallied 353.64 points, or 3.6% to 10,169.61, while the

FBM-Small Cap Index climbed 175.56 points, or 1.54% to 11,570.25.

 The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI has climbed up steeply and is fast

approaching the overbought line (Chart 1), while the weekly indicator has re-hooked

upwards to neutralize the previous week’s sell signal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index

(RSI) indicator climbed up for a robust reading of 60.37 as of last Friday, while the 14-week

RSI hooked up with a positive reading above 50.

The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line crossed for a buy

signal following last Thursday’s gap-up, while the weekly MACD has re-hooked upwards to

retain the bullish stance (Chart 2). Meanwhile, the +DI and -DI lines on the 14-day Directional

Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator crossed for a buy signal on a leveling ADX line.

 Conclusion

Buy signals on the daily MACD and DMI trend indicators with improving momentum

indicators following last week’s robust 4% rally on KLCI could see the local market resuming

higher towards year-end. However, on the daily chart, the sighting of a bearish “shooting

star” candle, signaling high possibility for a short-term peak coinciding with the key 200-day

moving average resistance, should see the index pullback and cover last Thursday’s gap-up

before more buying interest returns. As such, investors should see the market move into base

building mode to reinforce a higher support platform this coming week.

The immediate resistance is now at 1,503, the 200-day moving average matching last

Thursday’s high, which is a key hurdle to cross and promote breakout to target 1,529, the

76.4% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the sell-off from the 1,597 record high of 11 July to the

recent pivot low of 1,310 on 26 Sept. The next significant hurdle will then be 1,597 which

requires a total reversal in risk aversion with regards to the European debt situation and

global economic outlook. Immediate support is upgraded to 1,473, the 100-day moving

average, with better support at 1,437, the leveling 50-day moving average.

Weekly Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 05/12/2011

For the week ended on the 2^nd of December, 2011, the KLCI gained a total of 57.47 points or 4.01% with its weekly high of 1502.53 point and the weekly low of 1437.21 points. Total market volume was 6,209,836,600 shares, downed 14.63%.

Main Chart:

As the KLCI rebounded strongly, it managed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance. However, the KLCI failed to break above the 1500 resistance, and coincidentally, the 1500 is also the level of the 200 day Moving Average. This suggests that the long term movement of the KLCI is still on the negative side.

Bollinger Bands:

After the KLCI had broken above the Bollinger middle band, the Bollinger Bands also expanded, though not significantly. For now, the Bollinger Bands is showing a positive signal for the KLCI.

Volume:

As indicated by B, total market volume were gaining gradually, while marginally above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests some improvement in the market participation. Technically, if volume should stay above the 40-day volume moving average, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to improve.

MACD:

With the strong rebound of the KLCI, the MACD histogram continues to tick up, while the Rounding Bottom signal is still in sight. Meanwhile, the MACD line is also breaking above the zero level, thus bringing more positive signal to the KLCI.

WinChart RSI:

The WinChart RSI is picking up some strength, though not yet breaking above 70%. Technically, if the WinChart RSI should break above 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a mid term bullish strength for the KLCI.

Stochastic:

After breaking above 70% on Wednesday, the Stochastic stayed above 70%, which is the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is positive.

In Conclusion:

With the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI is positive. However, the KLCI has not returned to its uptrend yet, not until a valid break out above 1500.

每周技术分析 02/12/2011

富时综合指数上周以1437.77点开市，全周最高水平为1502.53点，最低则是1489.02点。综指上周以1489.02点闭市，按周上扬57.47点或4.01%，全周总成交量为62亿983万6600股，按周减少14.63%。

主要指标－图形

综指上周回弹后精确的在200天移动平均线（Moving Average）遇阻，这也是1500点的心理阻力关口（参考箭头A），所以阻力倍增，这意味着综指接下来的阻力水平维持在1500点以及200天MA，支持水平则是1453.81点的费氏线。

布林频带

综指上周上扬突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这使到综指的走势避开继续下跌，综指随即出现转强的趋势，接下来若布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始打开，而综指又能继续保持在布林中频带以上，综指将有望形成上扬的趋势。

技术指标

成交量

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周达到40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示马股市场相当活跃，增加市场的承接力量，这对综指接下来转强有利。

平均乖离

平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周开始上扬，形成一个圆底的形状，这表示综指的短期走势开始转向上扬，直到振荡指标形成相对的圆顶为止。

胜图强弱指标

胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）继续回弹，并且上扬突破50%的水平，这显示综指的中期走势从弱势转为中和偏强。

随机指标

随机指标（Stochastic）上周上扬突破30%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势进入上扬的格局，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总结

综指上周上扬突破布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指有望转强，无论如何，综指在上扬后在200天MA遇阻，这是综指长期走势一道重要的阻力线，若综指仍然未能突破200天，综指的后市仍然看低一线，换句话说，若综指接下来能上扬突破200天MA，综指后市则有望进一步走高。

祝你好运

ZLBT's Weekend DJIA Charts 20/08/2011

Less said the better
A picture speaks a thousand words
And there are 2 ......

HAPPY WEEKEND

Try ..... ??? :P

ZLBT Random Charts

Please click on images to ENLARGE

HAPPY WEEKEND

WALL STREET : DJIA fell for 6th week; Dow spiral 173.45 points

6th Straight Weekly Decline Leaves DJIA South of 12,000
After a much-needed bounce on Thursday, the major market indexes resumed their month-long slide today. Signs of slower economic growth out of China sparked early anxiety, as did news of an unexpected increase in U.S. import prices during the month of May. Against this backdrop of downbeat data, slashed second-quarter guidance from Dow component Travelers Companies (TRV) was the final nail in the coffin. The insurance giant warned that it expects to suffer an operating loss during the quarter, due to more than $1 billion in catastrophe costs. Conversely, consensus estimates were calling for a per-share profit of $1.29. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended below the psychologically significant 12,000 level for the first time in more than two months, putting an exclamation point on its longest weekly losing streak since 2002.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,951.91) ended on a steep decline of 172.5 points, or 1.4%, as all but three of its 30 components closed in the red. Bank of America (BAC) bounced back from an early low on reports that it will close its proprietary trading desk, adding 1.4% to pace the few advancing blue chips. Meanwhile, Travelers and Pfizer (PFE) set the tone for the 27 declining Dow members, with each stock shedding just over 3%. The Dow notched its first daily close south of 12,000 since March 18, after finding an intraday foothold near the site of its rising 160-day moving average. The index declined 1.6% from last Friday's close, bringing its losing streak to six consecutive weeks.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,270.98) gave up 18 points, or 1.4%, to mark its lowest weekly close of 2011. The SPX bottomed out near 1,268 today, which coincides with its rising 10-month moving average. For the week, the SPX declined 2.2%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,643.73) tumbled 41.1 points, or 1.5%, to mark its first weekly finish south of 2,650 since March 18. The COMP shed 3.3% for the week, and is now sitting on a loss of 0.3% year-to-date.

"There's a lot of emotion in this market at the moment, and the conversations among traders are nearly all leaning toward the bear side."
"A lot of us shook our heads as the market headed higher, despite higher energy prices, the economy and the turmoil going on abroad."


"The backdrop and cause for our weakness remains just as real as ever."
“We are going through a period where the economic expansion is likely to be coming in a bit softer than in the past.”
“The markets on the whole are reacting to what we think is a slowdown period of both the U.S. and the broader economy.”
“The past 30-year was pretty solid, considering the big decline in yields the past two weeks.”
“The bond market does look to be in a sound position with momentum on its side after the Treasury’s successful sale this week."
“The fact that today is a Friday might be significant. Investors have a tendency to not want to be long over a weekend. And the reality is that this euro-zone and sovereign debt issue is very much in play.” 
“We have had a steady drumbeat of weak economic news. There is really nothing on the horizon to suggest in the very near term that trend is going to change.” 
“And to put a cherry on top of the scenario, as far as downside pressures, you have this significant unease surrounding exactly what is going to come from the Greek debt issues."

Crude oil slips below $100 per barrel
Crude futures took a dive today, as traders learned that Saudi Arabia may diverge from the rest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by boosting its production output. Strength in the U.S. currency also applied pressure to the dollar-denominated commodity, as did a general lack of risk appetite among increasingly jittery investors. By the close, crude oil for July delivery dropped $2.64, or 2.6%, to end at $99.29 per barrel. On a weekly basis, black gold shed 0.9%. 

HAPPY WEEKEND

WALL STREET : DJIA Suffers 5th Weekly Losses

Jobs Data Sours Wall Street
Despite a double dose of ominous jobs data this week, the government's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report still managed to send the bulls into a tailspin today. Specifically, Uncle Sam confessed that only 54,000 jobs were added last month -- falling way short of expectations for gain of 150,000, and marking the weakest payrolls growth since September. What's more, the unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 9.1%, defying economists' predictions and further souring the mood on the Street. While a dose of stronger-than-anticipated data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) helped to alleviate the pain, all three major market indexes were still swimming in red ink by the close, extending their losing streak to five straight weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,151.26) finished off its intraday low, but still surrendered 97.3 points, or 0.8%, by the time the bell mercifully sounded. Only Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) took the road less traveled, tacking on 0.2%, while Travelers (TRV) finished flat. Meanwhile, Walt Disney (DIS), Dupont (DD), and Alcoa (AA) paced the 28 declining equities with losses of 1.7% apiece. For the week, the Dow gave up 2.3%, extending its retreat to five straight weeks, and marking its first Friday finish beneath both its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since late August.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,300.16) swallowed a loss of 12.8 points, or nearly 1%, but found support at the round-number 1,300 level. However, the SPX ended the week beneath its own 10-week and 20-week trendlines for the first time since late August. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,732.78) fared the worst of the three, giving up 40.5 points, or 1.5%, to settle beneath its 10-week and 20-week moving averages for just the second time in nine months. Like the Dow, the SPX and COMP both shed 2.3% for the week.

HAPPY WEEKEND