Bursa ends 2012 at all time high

BSKL ends 2012 with a bang

The FBM KLCI finished 2012 with a 10.34% gain to close at an all-time high of 1,688.95 as election concerns, defensive trading and high cash holding continued to dominate the equity scene in Malaysia. For the day, the local bourse was up 7.62 points on volume of RM1.31bil shares.

The KLCI's gains were mostly done in the last 15 minutes of trading on selected key blue chip stocks.

The barometer index FBM KLCI rose 10.34% compared to 1,530.73 recorded on Dec 30, 2011.

The Industrial Index improved 30.23 points to 2,795.79, the Plantation Index gained jumped 213.35 points to 8,314.11 and the Finance Index advanced 36.06 points to 15,357.24.

The FBM Emas Index was 47.69 points higher at 11,438.14, FBMT100 surged 51.80 points to 11,302.39, FBM Mid 70 Index gained 60.36 points to 12,334.14 and the FBM Ace Index rose 7.89 to 4,214.15.

Total volume eased to 834.802 million shares worth RM1.314bil from 853.829 million shares valued at RM1.276bil last Friday.

FAREWELL 2012 WELCOME 2013

Crude Palm Oil Futures Outlook 12 Mar 2009

Cpo futures closed lower yesterday amid bearish export performance and lower soy e-trading. MPOB released its official numbers yesterday whereby exports in February declined 7.16% to 1.256,782 million tones compared with exports in January. Meanwhile, stocks fell 14.66% to 1..561 million from 1,829 million. Palm oil production recorded 1.186 million tons in February, down 10.7 percent compared with the previous month due to decline in production and flood in some plantation area.

At closed March09 lost RM15 to RM2075, April 2009 shed RM35 to RM2005, while the benchmark 3rd month May 2009 shed RM15 to RM1980. Turnover decreased to 12,770 lots from 13,187 lots yesterday while open interests went up to 88,765 contracts from 87,626 contracts.

Crude oil settle at $42.38 a barrel in NYMEX after falling 7.48% yesterday as a U.S... government report showed a bigger-than-expected inventory gain and a drop in fuel consumption to a two-month low. Supplies increased 749,000 barrels to 351.3 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. Crude oil for April delivery shed $3.38 to $42.38 a barrel.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell 15 cents, or 1.7%, to $8.62 a bushel in CBOT. Demand for grain and oilseeds to feed livestock, poultry and dairy cows will fall as the global recession reduces consumer demand. World consumption of grain to feed animals, excluding rice and wheat, will fall 1.7% to 642.5 million metric tons in the marketing year that began Oct. 1, the USDA said. That would be the biggest percentage drop in 13 years, USDA data show.

ursa Malaysia will step up efforts to market making, having seen thin trade of the US dollar-denominated crude palm oil futures known as FUPO, since its launch six months ago. Bursa COO, Omar Merican admitted that Bursa Malaysia had underestimated the scale of the global crisis when FUPO was launched on 5 Sep 08. It only saw five lots traded on its first trading day.

Market Outlook

The cpo reversed early gains as the benchmark May fell 0.75%, off the day low to settle at RM1980. The big range and swing is a sign of the current uncertainty. As the candles maintain above the major SMA, it is only a matter of time before the cpo recover towards RM2000-2020 level. Support peg at RM1950-1920. Cpo futures likely to open lower in line with the weak soy and crude oil market overnight.

FCPO >>> BUY ON WEAKNESS

BURSA KLSE >>> Are there any bulls left?

Are There Any Bulls Left?

Its seems pretty much all of the bulls have thrown in the towel. It is pretty hard not to. Negative news has been cascading into the market, and the market has been reacting accordingly. Some things to consider though before we give up on stocks:


>>> The economic outlook is pretty weak, and possibly still weakening, but a lot of it is priced into stocks. The DOW is on the verge of breaking through 7,000, and could go lower. The KLCI is floundering on the presumptions Malaysia is doing better than her neighbours, but what positive scenario have traders priced into stocks? That is something to think about moving forward.



>>> The stock market tends to rebound before the economy does. This is mostly due to the market anticipating future events. Who doesn't know your granny have falsies?



>>> Bear market rallies are common, even if stocks aren't ready to make a significant move higher. There are opportunities to make money during these periods. Show me a winners and I will show you two losers.



>>> Although there is virtually no limit how much further stocks can fall, the downside momentum will eventually subside, even though it feels like it may never happen. Try to see both sides of the argument.



Some things to think about as we try to navigate this market.

FRASER AND NEAVE CONFIDENT OF THE FUTURE (after losing Coca Cola Franchise Agreements)

F&N CONFIDENT OF THE FUTURE

Kuala Lumpur, 19 February 2009 - F&N Holdings Berhad (F&NHB) announced to Bursa Malaysia that the Coca-Cola Franchise Agreements, which are due to expire in January 2010 will not be renewed.
The announcement to Bursa Malaysia was in line with relevant listing requirements and good corporate governance and transparency, to ensure that all the key stakeholders are kept updated on material information pertaining to F&NHB.

Mr Tan Ang Meng, F&N Group CEO said “The non-renewal of the Coca-Cola Franchise Agreements announced yesterday, though unavoidable, gives us the opportunity to further build on F&N brand equity, unparalleled market presence and expertise, manufacturing capabilities and outstanding distribution network to realize a potential which was unavailable in the past. As a result of our new status, we are now able to launch new products and venture into new territories and export markets from which we were restricted in the past by the agreements.”

F&N is ready to adapt and chart a new course to realize its vision as a Malaysian-owned world class F&B company.

According to Mr Tan the relationship between The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) and F&N was a dynamic one and in the course of the collaboration there had been differing perspectives, viewpoints and expectations.

“The Group’s financial position is sound, our business sustainable and diversified and coupled with our resolve and determination, we will overcome and withstand any eventualities. While challenging, our future is indeed bright and we are confident,” Mr Tan added.

The non-renewal of the agreements is not expected to have any material effect on the operating performance of F&NHB Group for the financial year ending 30 September 2009.
A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF F&N COCA-COLA (M) SDN BHD

F&N Coca-Cola is a division of Fraser and Neave Holdings Berhad that supplies and distributes Coca-Cola, F&N Fun Flavours, 100 PLUS isotonic drink, Seasons Asian inspired drinks and Fruit Tree drinks. The company commenced operations in 1936 when F&N Ltd secured the franchise of Coca-Cola in Singapore and Malaysia. F&N Coca-Cola (M) Sdn Bhd (F&NCC) was born as a result of this and today is Malaysia’s largest soft drinks manufacturer and distributor.
In Malaysia, F&NCC’s soft drinks portfolio is dominated by Coca-Cola products and the F&N brands such as F&N Fun Flavours which is the leading player in the fruit flavoured carbonated soft drinks segment in Malaysia. Meanwhile, 100PLUS is a notable local success story, commanding over 90 percent share of the isotonic drinks market. Under the division’s non-carbonated portfolio, SEASONS is currently the number two player in the Asian drinks category while the Fruit Tree and Aquarius brands continue to experience double-digit growth within the juice and water category.

The division registered a 12 per cent increase in revenue to RM1.19 billion for the financial year ending September 2008 from RM1.06 billion last year notwithstanding rising fuel prices and lower consumer sentiment. Overall volume grew by nine per cent, ahead of the nation's GDP growth. Operating profits climbed 13 per cent to RM123 million from RM109 million last year, driven by higher product consumption.

The division's strong showing in the first half of the year was on the back of stronger uptake during the two major festive celebrations, while an active mitigation plan in the second half helped it achieve these results and strengthen its position as the number one soft drinks manufacturer in Malaysia.
In the coming months, the division will continue to strengthem internal capacity and be more focused in the marketplace. It will continue to pursue world-class excellence in distribution to make the brand more readily available, with greater emphasis on market execution and increased efforts in training, including in expanding, empowering and building capability of the sales force across the board.

Over the years, F&NCC has implemented several strategic measures that emphasizes its strong brand presence as well as invest heavily in advertising and promotions, product availability and operational efficiency. We also understand that consumers are always on the lookout for high quality products and excellent services. In line F&N’s food and beverage corporate identity, F&NCC promises to offer healthy enjoyment in exciting ways. As such, the company is well poised to surge ahead in its drive to respond to market trends, meet changing consumer needs and exceed consumer expectations by providing quality products based on the best manufacturing practices to repay its consumers’ support and confidence in the brand throughout the years.

With dedication, commitment and good teamwork, the company is confident that it will continue to grow and its brands will continue to prosper. F&NCC invites its consumers to join them for the ride.

Over the years, the brands in F&N’s stable have continued to grow from strength to strength. Our divisions have worked aggressively to deliver on the respective brand promises through bringing our customers consistent and memorable brand experiences. F&N’s underlying commitment to innovation, quality and excellence undoubtedly enabled the brands in our stable to weather the challenges of the marketplace as well as forge ahead in their respective market segments.

SOME F&N BRANDS

Technical Stock Picks Compilation Table 2

The table below is a compilation of actively traded stocks with their stop-loss, support and upside targets together with some popular technical indicators. Stock name in bold represents stocks that are expected to attract momentum trading plays and hence encourage retail or short-term trading participation. Share price in bold reflects revised stop-loss, support and upside targets.

Recommendation (REC) in bold indicates changes to recent technical calls.

Comments: Look to Take Profit or Sell on Rally AMMB as we anticipate profit-taking interest will increase towards the RM2.60 immediate upside target. Similarly, Tenaga should see strong profit-taking at RM6.40 and higher. Meanwhile, expect further price correction on KPS and Puncak Niaga as the privatization plan by the Selangor stage government of its water supply assets may not gain support from the federal government due to political differences.

Random Stocks / Charts KLCI Landmarks MRCB PuncakNiaga QSR

综合指数 2009年 02月 16日 / Composite Index 16/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 16日

综合指数在上扬后再度调整，所幸的是综指精确的在905点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持（参考图中箭头A），这是综指当前的技术支持水平，综指再下一道的支持水平则落在885-887点这两道胜图自动费氏线，综指目前的阻力水平则是处于937点的胜图自动费氏线。。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger）打开幅度出现了再度减低的格局，这显示综指目前还是有调整巩固的趋势。无论如何，只要综指继续的处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）这道动态支持水平以上的话，那综指还是有望继续的转强。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量在综指回软时减少了25.4%，这显示投资者再度的受到外围因素影响而却步，无论如何，成交量还是成功的达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场还是处于一个活跃的水平里。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度在达到100%后回软，这显示综指的短期走势在出现过热（随机指标达100%）后再度在短期超卖下走低。无论如何，只要随机指标继续的维持在70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势还是未算是确定出现一个下跌的趋势。

总的来说综指目前在短期涨势中出现了技术调整，综指还是呈转强状态，不过接下来成交量若跌破40天平均值的话，这就意味着投资者开始回避股市，这是投资者对综指后市悲观或不明确的反应，届时综指的后市将会看低一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 16/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI remains supported by the 905 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement despite a slight pullback on Monday. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is still at 905 while the next support is at 885-887 Fibonacci Retracement. Resistance for the KLCI is at 937 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is expanding at a slower rate, implying that the KLCI might be consolidating soon. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.4%, as investors are still being cautious. Nevertheless, volume on Monday is still above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still relatively actively participated.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%, suggested that the KLCI is having a healthy pull back as the KLCI was over-heated. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic still above the 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

The slight pull back on Monday is considered normal. As long as the volume should remain above 40-day VMA level, the rally of the KLCI is likely to continue. However, if volume should failed to sustain at above the 40-day VMA level, it would be a sign of lack of confident in the market and the KLCI would have difficulties in sustaining its current movement.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Random Stocks / Charts Dow ECrudeOil FCPO PuncakNiaga Astro Muhibbah MAHB

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Dow Dragonfly unconfirmed

Dow Dragonfly unconfirmed
But KLCI may not follow Dow’s negativity

The KLCI and Asian equity markets got a little ahead of themselves when they rallied on the possibility of a potential bullish reversal with the emergence of the Dragonfly candlestick pattern in the Dow charts on Thursday. However, we have said before that this pattern requires a confirmation, and no confirmation was forthcoming yet when the Dow dipped 82.3 points on Friday and marginally went below the critical 7,882 support line.

7,882 break not a “true break” yet Before traders rush into selling their equities just right after buying them not too long ago, it might be worthwhile noting that the 7,882 break cannot yet be considered a “true break”. While the 7,882 bottom was “broken”, a 32 point margin cannot be considered a true break. The onus will be on the bears tonight to make this 7,882 break a true break by extending the margin of the break. What’s more, the selling volume last night was relatively sparse and unconvincingly bearish.

KLCI looking positive in the short term
As can be seen from the correlation chart above, the KLCI’s correlation with the Dow is tailing off over the last few weeks. So even if the Dow decides to retest its November bottoms, it is possible that the KLCI might not follow the Dow down, at least not too much. This implies a capped downside for the KLCI.

The KLCI now looks decidedly positive in the short term. After a collision and convergence of the red short term line and the blue mid term line, a long white candle generally confirms a strong upward direction ahead. What’s more, the KLCI has breached above the 890-900 resistance zone with conviction and high volume. Our view on the KLCI is now positive in the short term.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Stocks Compilation Table

The table below is a compilation of actively traded stocks with their stop-loss, support and upside targets together with some popular technical indicators. Stock name in bold represents stocks that are expected to attract momentum trading plays and hence encourage retail or short-term trading participation. Share price in bold reflects revised stop-loss, support and upside targets.

Recommendation (REC) in bold indicates changes to recent technical calls.

Comments: We have included Jaks, KHSB, KPS and Puncak in our daily stocks watch list with Sell on Rally call following yesterday’s strong surge, since we do not expect gains to hold for long with profit-taking correction imminent due to the sharp rally. Switch to Sell on Rally WCT towards RM1.20 resistance, while maintain SELL call on BCHB, IOI Corp, Maybank and Sime Darby which are likely to consolidate further with a downside bias.

KLCI bogged in a Dow quicksand?

KLCI : Cracked marginally above 890-900 Resistance, but will face Dow repercussions
The fortunes of the KLCI were turning positive yesterday when buying volume was increasing and it managed to crack above its 890-900 resistance level. However, the KLCI will be similarly hit by the negative overnight Dow. The direction of the KLCI will be
dependant on where the Dow goes these two nights.

Strategy : Wait and Monitor Dow tonight Considering the rather precarious and tricky situation of the Dow which is hovering merely 6 points above its critical 7,882 support, there is no other choice but to adopt a wait-and-see stance. We are watching the Dow closely tonight to see if this critical
support hold. If this support holds, there will still be hope for the bulls. If this support collapses, the Dow will be revisiting its November low of 7,449 very soon.

CAVEAT EMPTOR >>> Buyers Beware!!!

Random Stocks & Charts UEMLand AirAsia Time dotCom DiGi

DJIA >>> Is It A Rally Or Just Short Coverings?

A true rally or just short covering? The Dow is rallying because of an expectation of a bailout/stimulus package being presented on Monday, the 9th.

As prices rally into the resistance of what has been a formidable Wave, it’s likely this is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario and traders should take profits on this move, not initiate a long position.

Point & Figure Chart: A type of chart consisting of columns of X's (showing price rises) and O's (showing price falls) arranged on a square grid. When the index increases, a rising column of black X's is created – a rally. When the index falls, a descending column of red O's appears – a decline. Read article on Point & Figure Charts.

Point and Figure Buy Signal: P&F Buy and Sell signals are very simple patterns that should be confirmed before placing a trade. The P&F Buy signal is used when calculating the various Bullish Percent indices. When the last signal on the chart was a buy signal, that is, the last breakout was a column of Xs going higher than the previous column of Xs and no sell signal (no column of Os breaking below the previous column of Os) has happened since the buy signal.

Point and Figure Sell Signal: P&F Buy and Sell signals are very simple patterns that should be confirmed before placing a trade. The P&F Buy signal is used when calculating the various Bullish Percent indices. When the last signal on the chart was a sell signal, that is, the last breakout was a column of Os going lower than the previous column of Os and no buy signal (no column of Xs breaking above the previous column of Xs) has happened since the sell signal.

Point and Figure Price Objective: The price that a stock should reach based on recent P&F chart signals. Price Objective is a simple calculations based on standard Point & Figure chart patterns. They are of questionable value but we include them on our charts because they have been used for such a long time. No TA users can makes no claim about their accuracy or usefulness whatsoever. For more on how they are calculated, refer Point and Figure Price Objectives.

What Does Kagi Chart Mean? A type of chart developed by the Japanese in the 1870s that uses a series of vertical lines to illustrate general levels of supply and demand for certain assets. Thick lines are drawn when the price of the underlying asset breaks above the previous high price and is interpreted as an increase in demand for the asset. Thin lines are used to represent increased supply when the price falls below the previous low.

An entry signal is triggered when the vertical line changes from thin to thick and is not reversed until the thick line changes back to thin. One important note about these charts is that they are independent of time and only change direction once a predefined reversal amount is reached.