TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2010年 10月 07日/FBM KLCI 07 Oct 2010

综合指数 2010年 10月 07日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数微扬1.84点，以1481.45点闭市，综指综指目前已经处于1479.59点以上，所以1480点（整数）将成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则是1500点的心理阻力水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开12%，这显示布林频带打开的幅度缓缓的增加，虽然并未算是出现非常明显打开的情形，所以虽然综指并未完全形成转强的走势，不过综指的后市有继续转强的迹象。

如图中箭头B所示，稍微下跌11.8%，这使到马股成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是市场交易淡静的迹象，所以综指仍然有继续维持在横摆巩固走势的可能。

如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续上扬，已完成了圆底的形状，接下来若振荡指标继续上扬，振荡指标将有望上扬突破零轴进入正值区域，那综指将有望进一步的转强，直到振荡指标形成一个圆顶为止。

虽然布林频带有开始打开的迹象，惟市场的缺乏新的买盘，这可从成交量跌破40天平均值看出，换句话说，由于缺乏新的买盘进入市场，所以综指的涨势还未完全形成。以技术而言，接下来只要综指持续维持在布林中频带以上，那布林频带渐渐的打开将使到综指稳健的转强，届时若成交量能进一步增长至40天平均值的水平，综指的后市还是有望看高一线。

FBM KLCI 07 Oct 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rose 1.84 points to close at 1481.45 points, breaking above the 1480 level, thus the 1480 is now the immediate support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at 1500 level.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 12%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band. The expansion of the Bollinger Bands suggests an increase of upside volatility, thus if the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, with t he KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the technical outlook shall remains positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 11.8%, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average. The lower volume on Thursday failed to confirm the break out of the KLCI, but if the KLCI should continue is sideways movement, lower volume is normal.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram forms a Rounding Bottom, with the MACD histogram rising, this suggests that the KLCI is picking up strength, and the positive movement of the KLCI is expected to carry on until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top.

In conclusion, despite the positive technical signal such as the Bollinger Bands, total market volume suggests that the participation was insufficient, thus the break out signal was not significant. Nevertheless, with the KLCI still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend shall remains unchanged.

HAPPY TRADING