GE13 >>> A changed Malaysia come May 6

No matter which coalition makes the government in the early morning of May 6, one thing is certain — Malaysia has changed and it is business unusual for the new administration.

With the respected Merdeka Center for Opinion Research’s latest survey showing a dead heat between both Barisan Nasional (BN) or Pakatan Rakyat (PR), the winner’s first job is to respond to a populace that questions and demands more from its government.

Forget the docile and subservient citizenry that thought government always knew best. That worked for some 55 years but this is a new Malaysia where the people are more advanced and ambitious in thought than their politicians.

 A population where pensioners and the bloated civil service are no longer a sure vote bank, where racial barriers have collapsed and people are one as Bangsa Malaysia — concerned more about the economy than the personal lives of politicians.

This single-mindedness and unity comes despite the overt racist tones in the campaign since Nomination Day on April 20 or the fear-mongering being played out by certain political parties.

The results of the latest Merdeka Center poll — 42 per cent of the voters agreeing that PR could govern the country against 41 per cent who felt only BN should rule Malaysia — reflect how far the country has come from elections where politicians just pleaded to be a strong opposition.

“Change happens all the time and in the same way that none of us can ever imagine Malaysia regressing to an age where women are not allowed access to education, we cannot ever imagine going back to a politics that is simplistic, patronising, top-down and unchallenged.

“Even the former opposition parties have learned, over the past five years, what it is really like to be in power and having to be accountable to NGOs and public opinion. It’s been a learning experience for all of us, and I believe we have grown a little wiser too,” well-known academic Dr Farish A. Noor wrote in an essay today.

That wisdom has meant that no government can now simply implement a top-down decision without being questioned by the people or told in no uncertain terms how unpopular some ideas are.

Ideas are being shared and shaped through the Internet, people, young and old, are coming together and ahead of politicians whose mindsets belong to the trunks of their forefathers who travelled in the previous century.

The old must make way for the new, just like party-owned newspapers that will be held accountable for their reportage. The days of being the only source of credible news is over for the likes of the New Straits Times, The Star, Berita Harian or Utusan Malaysia.

There is now a proliferation of news portals and growing rise of video clips that tell a story better and faster than any propagandist can. The new media has become the standard way of creating and consuming news and information, leaving in its wake shrinking audiences for newspapers and state broadcasters that refuse to step into the 21st century.

Why? Because there are more young people now than ever before. More of who want a say in their country Malaysia. More who will come to vote tomorrow as eagerly as those Malaysians abroad last Sunday.

We have changed as Malaysians. We are no longer bystanders and an audience of a national narrative written by politicians. We are the active participants shaping Malaysia’s direction and discourse, looking askance at politicians who think nothing of shifting thousands of voters across the country before the polls.

This is the new Malaysia that will vote tomorrow for a better Malaysia for all who proudly call themselves Malaysians. The Malaysia that keeps its government on its toes for fear of losing its job.

This May 6 the new government will be one that learns more from the people than it can teach the people unlike the past 55 years.

GE13 >>> PR will fall short in race to Putrajaya

Fifteen hours before the polling stations open tomorrow, May 5, it's no longer neck-and-neck between Pakatan Rakyat and Umno/BN for a photofinish.

The alarm bells are ringing.

It looks like PR will fall short in the race to Putrajaya.

What "effect" Hindraf Malaysia Association (Himas) will have on the election results in Malaya remains to be seen.

However, the return of the two-thirds to Umno/BN as urged by Himas, is not possible without massive electoral fraud. The Hindraf factor alone is not enough for Umno/BN to regain the two-thirds majority. In that sense, the Hindraf-MOU may be the proverbial fig leaf to cover the two-thirds majority scam idea.
It's 50:50 in Perak.

PR is on target in only half the seats it needs to capture in Johore. 
 
It's tough in Negri Sembilan.

In Sabah, Star/Usno will deny it some of the parliamentary seats it needs to get to Putrajaya.

Sabahans have definately decided not to split their anti-BN votes. Ironically, this is an idea promoted by Sapp which may end up with zero seats.

Sabahans will vote for the most winnable Opposition candidate.

For Parliament, the trend is to vote for PR except in Keningau where Jeffrey Kitingan is taking on his elder brother Joseph Pairin Kitingan and in Penampang where Bernard Dompok is defending his seat.

The Opposition can get 13 parliamentary seats including Labuan i.e. Star/Usno 5 (min 10 state) KDM/Suluk; Dap 3 (max 6 state) Chinese; and independents/PKR 4 (max 12 state) Suluk/other Muslim; and Pas 1 (max 3 state) Suluk/other Muslim.

The chances of PR getting 15 or 16 parliamentary seats in Sarawak remains to be seen.

At present, it can bank on only 9 Sarawak seats at the very maximum i.e. including the Bidayuh seat of Mas Gading where Star is also present and the Orang Ulu-dominated Baram where PKR has a clear shot at victory.

The fight is not over yet.

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim is best in the streets.

After May 5, when it's clear that Umno/BN cannot be dethroned through the ballot box despite being in power 56 years, the Opposition will have to take to the streets, occupy Dataran Merdeka and demand the setting up of an Interim Government which will clean up the electoral rolls, purge the Govt sector of card-carrying hardcore Umno racists, and hold free and fair elections which will end Umno/BN rule.

If Umno/BN regains the two-thirds majority and attributes it to the Hindraf factor, no one will buy it.

Again, regaining the two-thirds would be evidence that the 13th GE was not free and fair, and that there was massive electoral fraud probably using, among others, the MyKads of Indians who, based on past records, do not turn out to vote.

Himas and Hindraf Makkal Sakthi chairman P. Waythamoorthy may have unknowingly fallen into an Umno/BN trap in their desperation to win, let alone get a two-thirds majority.

GE13 >>> Market likely to fall if PR wins

The stock market is expected to fall if the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat (PR), which has no track record in running the federal government, wins the coming general election and takes over control of Putrajaya.

 

But the market could recover quickly from this knee-jerk reaction if PR, seen as business-friendly, could decide fast who will be the prime minister and form its Cabinet soon.

 

It will be worse for the market if either PR or the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) wins with a very slim majority, or if there is a hung Parliament, as uncertainty will linger on until a new government is formed.

 

These views are prevalent among fund managers, analysts and dealers when theedgemalaysia.com did a cursory survey of market players this week.

 

Ang Kok Heng, who manages RM1.4 billion worth of funds for Philips Capital Management Sdn Bhd, said: “If PR wins, the market will definitely fall as markets do not like uncertainty. This will go on until the dust settles and PR starts managing the country.”

 

He added: “Most in the market are now betting that the BN will win. If it is otherwise, the market will fall. But we are prepared to buy up beaten-down stocks that we like. Our strategy is to buy low and sell high.”

 

While seeing value in banking, oil/gas sectors now, Ang said after the election results are announced, investors should go for short-term technical trading.

 

“When quality stocks plunge, we will buy. You can’t select sectors when the whole market plunges. You have to go by stocks,” he advised.

 

Credit Suisse’s analyst Tan Ting Ming, in her recent research note, opined: “If PR wins, the market could see a knee-jerk reaction as equity investors dislike change and uncertainties. Without a track record, there will be political and economic uncertainties if PR takes over.”

 

Under PR rule, the market could expect monopolies and concessions to come under review, and Tenaga Nasional may suffer a hit as PR has stated in its manifesto it wants to cut electricity tariffs, she said.

 

And REITs, consumer staples and telcos will likely outperform, according to Tan.

 

She said if PR implements its manifestos, Malaysia’s budget deficit could worsen as PR may increase subsidies and hand-outs.

 

A senior institutional sales manager, who declined to be named, shares the views of Ang and Tan.

 

She said: “If BN wins, the market will rally. If PR wins, the market will definitely fall. But under PR, if the question of who becomes the next prime minister is settled fast, the market will calm down. Forming a cabinet promptly will also instil confidence.”

 

Under PR rule, counters linked to caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak such as CIMB Holdings, PNB-controlled and Khazanah-linked shares are likely to lead the decline.

 

And companies which have been awarded the BN caretaker government’s contracts after the dissolution of Parliament may be hit, as they may not be recognised by the new government.

 

In fact Najib, who is leading BN in this most-fiercely contested general election in the country’s history, was one of the first political leaders to talk about post-election market reactions.

 

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he said: “The market, the currency (ringgit) will take a very sharp decline if the opposition wins.”

 

Bloomberg reported that companies controlled by Tan Sri T. Ananda Krishnan and Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary may face government scrutiny should PR win.

 

Companies linked to these two billionaires include Astro, DRB-Hicom, Maxis, MMC, Padiberas and Tradewinds.

 

But the worst for the market is likely to come if the election outcome shows a very close win for either BN or PR, which could result in a hung Parliament as the balance of power is almost equal or equal.

 

As there are 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs, BN or PR will have to win 112 seats to claim simple victory, and many more to claim absolute win.

 

A win by either group with a very slim majority is likely to plunge Malaysia into prolonged political crisis, as the two rival groups are likely to scramble for power by enticing elected MPs to cross over to their camps.

 

In the unlikely event that there is no leader who can command majority support, the King may have to step in to appoint a caretaker leader.

 

“A hung parliament would be the worst possible outcome of the election. If this happens, large domestic investors may hold on to their equities. If they are negative, trim their portfolio by 10-20% and short index futures,” advised an investment banker.

 

Many political analysts believe that if BN wins narrowly, Najib’s leadership could be challenged at the next general assembly of his party UMNO. And this will add more political instability.

 

As most in the market are now betting that the BN could win by a majority of one to three percent, anything beyond this margin will be “a bonus for the market”, said market players.

 

As long as BN wins, construction stocks such as Gamuda and IJM, and gaming stocks could still see a relief rally. UEM Land should continue to thrive while business will be as usual for most banks, said Tan.

 

While many see the market fall if PR wins or if there is a draw, they do not rule out the possibility that the stock market could rebound quickly if uncertainty could be removed promptly.

 

While foreign funds are lurking ahead of the general election, pushing the benchmark FBM KLCI to new record highs, there are also pools of local funds and cash-rich investors who are waiting to make a kill.