Support Seen @ 1581.50
With Another Floor @ 1572.00
(To ENLARGE chart >>> right click mouse >>> "Open In New Tab")
HAPPY TRADING
Friday, June 29, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 28/06/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-28
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI retreated and precisely testing the L2 uptrend line and the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support. The KLCI fell 7.65 points or 0.48% to close at 1594.24 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1609-1611.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.55%. Part of the reason was the active trading of Felda Global Venture Holding Bhd, which has accounted a little more than 16% of the total market volume. Nevertheless, with losers outnumbered gainers (477 to 248), the increased of volume actually suggests some increased of selling pressure.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, thus no Rounding Bottom signal is sighted yet. The falling of the MACD histogram suggests that the KLCI is still losing strength or it is still consolidating.
In conclusion, the FBM KLCI is testing its L2 uptrend line. If the KLCI should break below this L2 line, it means that the L2 uptrend would be temporary interrupted. However, a break below the L2 does not necessary means an immediate bearish reversal, at least not until the KLCI has formed lower-highs. On the other hand, if the KLCI could rebound from the L2 line or the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and forms Higher-Lows, it means that the current uptrend is still intact.
富时大马综合指数 2012-06-28
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数周四下调，精确的试探L2上升趋势线及14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线。综指按日下跌7.65点或0.48%，以1594.24点挂收。综指阻力维持在1609-1611点的水平。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加32.55%。马股周四成交量明显增加的其中原因之一是联邦土地发展局环球创投控股（FGV）上市首日的活跃交易（高达总成交量的16%）所致。无论如何，由于周四马股下跌股项有477只，上升股项仅有248只，因此成交量的增加也暗示着投资者套利活动也相当的活跃。一般来说，若马股下跌时成交量明显增加的话，往往表示卖压的增加。
如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续的下滑，因此还未有形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）的迹象。这表示综指短期还未能摆脱盘整格局。
总的来所，综指目前在试探L2的上升趋势线。若综指继续下调而跌破此线的话，那表示L2的上升趋势线暂时将受到中断。但是综指跌破L2线或14、21、31天EMA动态支持线并不表示综指将立即转弱形成跌势，除非随后再出现较低峰（Lower-highs）的特征，届时才有形成跌势的先兆。相反地，若综指能在L2线或14、21、31天EMA上反弹而形成较高底，届时表示综指目前的涨势还是完整的。
祝你好运
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
RANDOM STOCK PICKS TECHNICAL VIEWS >>> 26 JUNE 2012
The table below is a random compilation of actively traded stocks with some popular technical indicators. The technical BUY/SELL signals on the last four columns are auto generated; the first two being existing or recent signals while the last two represent a signal change from BUY to SELL or the reverse, otherwise no change is indicated by a dash. Stock names and technical statistics in bold highlight stocks that have changes in BUY/SELL signals on the DMI and MACD on the given date.
INTERPRETATION OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when
share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price
touches the upper band. Momentum traders tend to buy on price breakouts above the upper band, and sell when price breaks down below the lower band.
14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day moving
average should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day average is bearish and imply further near-term
downside risk
Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share
price stays above the 30-day average, and negative if it remains below. A longer-term uptrend is intact if share price sustain above the 50-day average, and is deemed broken if it breaches
below this level.
Directional Movement Indicator (DMI): The DMI is an indicator of trend strength. A positive DMI difference (DMI diff) value is bullish and indicate a higher DI+ vs. DI-, while a negative DMI diff is bearish due to a lower DI+ vs. DI- (DMI diff = DI+ minus DI-). A crossover of DI+ above DI- triggers a BUY signal, while a SELL signal is flashed when the DI+ crosses below the DI-. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) indicates the strength of a trend, whether it is up or down. The higher the value of ADX, the stronger the trend. An ADX value above 25 suggests a trending market or stock, while a value below 20 signal congestion or absence of trend.
Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD diff value is derived from the difference between the MACD line (the 12-day EMA minus the 26-day EMA) and the MACD signal line (the 9-day EMA of the MACD). A positive MACD diff value is bullish, while a negative MACD diff is bearish. A BUY signal is generated when the MACD diff rises above zero, and SELL signal sparked when the MACD diff value falls below zero.
DISCLAIMER
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
FKLI >>> Resilient Until When?
BUYERS BEWARE
You may get Hammered
While other global markets had been tanking for the past week, both the FBMKLCI & FKLI is not only resilient but recorded new highs as well today. The FBMKLCI added on 0.50 points to closed at 1603.12 after retracing from a 1611.50 new high. This is against the global flow. The FKLI, however, fell 3 points to 1603.00 after breaking all resistances to logged in a new 1615.50 high before profit takings kicks in. The retracement closed with a negative Inverted Hammer (IH). This is an early warning alert since the IH is formed at the peak of a rising trend. Technically, both the FBMKLCI & FKLI daily chart indicators have not displayed any obvious sell signals ..... yet.
More Than One Way To Skin A Cat
Since the Index Futures opens earlier and closed later than the cash market, it can be considered a prelude to the main Composite Index. Pre-emptive FKLI queuing can be noticed 5 minutes before the cash market open or closes. And similar sentiments usually continues the morning after. To gain the extra yard advantage over the rest, some innovations will be most helpful but risky, nevertheless.
The Alternative MACD Application
Most trading softwares have conventional MACD 12, 26, 12 as default operating standard procedures as with most other attributes. The usual suspects are RSI 14-days, Bollinger Bands 20/2, Stochastics 14, 3, 3 so on & so forth. These parameters are, however, not concreted otherwise softwares designers will not offer check box changes, will they? Since technicals are all but subjective, random changes can be very advantageous when knowledgeably applied. Technical newbies are warned to apply such changes with utmost caution.
In ZLBT, my recommendation for such an experimental endeavour is to try using MACD 6,12,6 as an alternative for the MACD 12,26,12 default. Sensivity is the keyword here so it is less useful when applied to longer timeframe charts such as weekly, monthly or yearly charts. But when applied to Daily, hourly, 30 mins, 15 mins or 5 mins chart, it can be awesome and to an extend, too hot to handle for some especially newbies. The danger of using MACD 6,12,6 are the whiplashes >>> the shorter the timeframe used (like 5 mins) the greater the kick backs. Alternative MACD 6,12,6 is more then 50% less than MACD 12,26,12 so the whiplash can be expected to be TWICE or TRIPLY fast. Applicants get ready for no surprises >>> FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS. The same principle applies for all other adjusted indicators & oscillators.
ZL have included the FKLI Spot Daily Chart c/w MACD 6,12,6 for your perusal. As shown in chart above, the bearish divergence is a good enough reason to anticipate a reversal anyday. Not a question of IF but WHEN. ZL lost a few points last Friday with a failed short attempt but is confident enough to recoup those minor losses this time around. I am in 1612.00 Short >>> Monday morning entry. Subjectiveness equates to rights & wrongs. A decent stoploss should limit the damages when prices goes against your entry. ZL admit being wrong last Friday when the FKLI rose against the Spinning Top (ST) but if I am correct with today's Inverted Hammer prognosis, I will not be yards but miles ahead of the crowd :)
HAPPY TRADING
Monday, June 25, 2012
Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 22/06/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-22
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the historical high again on Friday, with its intraday high reaching 1608.65 points. However, at the close, the KLCI was still resisted by the 1609, closing at 1603.07 points, gaining only 1.64 points. The 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.97%, but volume remains above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Technically, if volume should continue to increase while staying above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, the market sentiment in a whole is likely to improve a little.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram stopped rising on Friday, and if it should fall, it means that the KLCI is losing some strength in the short-term, or a signal suggesting consolidation ahead.
In conclusion, the KLCI is still testing the 1609 high, but its immediate technical outlook remains positive, provided that it is above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and the L2 line. Nevertheless, the performance of the regional markets still plays a important role in guiding our market overall performance.
富时大马综合指数 2012-06-22
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数周五全日一度上扬至1608.65点的最高，再次上探1609点的历史高峰阻力水平，惟继续在1609点遇阻而回软，按日微扬1.64点以1603.07点挂收。图中所示的14、21、31天EMA依然是综指目前的动态支持线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周五稍微减少5.97%，但是仍然维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。以技术而言，马股成交量若能继续增加的话，那将有助于改善现有的投资气氛。
如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）停止上扬，有形成圆顶的迹象。若平均乖离振荡指标接下来继续下滑的话，那表示综指短期有再次进入盘整的可能。
总的来说，综指还是在1609点历史高峰遇阻，但是综指目前的技术展望仍然是处于正面，除非综指接下来失守14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线或L2的上升线。无论如何，区域股市的表现也仍然对马股有一定的影响。
祝你好运
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