Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月03日/FBMKLCI 03/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 03日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度上扬至1508.41点，惟随后市场出现套利活动，这使到综指再度回软，按日微跌2.24点，以1500.98点闭市，综指精确的在1500点的心理支持水平获得扶持，这是综指接下来的支持水平，阻力水平则保持在1525点及1532点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）只稍微打开4%，从视觉上布林频带并未明显的打开，所以虽然综指以处于布林中频带以上，综指并未出现上扬的趋势。接下来若综指能继续的维持在布林中频带以上，而布林频带真正的明显打开，综指将有望恢复上扬的格局。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微下滑1.33%，所以成交量仍然低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这意味着投资者依然选择观望的居多，仍然等待市场进一步明朗化，才决定是否再度入市。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微下滑，所幸的是随机指标依然保持在70%以上的水平，这表示综指的短期走势仍然属于一个短期的上扬格局中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

虽然综指稍微回调，不过综指目前仍然成功的保持在布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以上的水平，所以综指的走势仍然有望进一步的转强，直到综指跌破布林中频带以及EMA为止。

FBM KLCI 03 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI had an intra-day high reaching 1508.41 points, but profit taking pulled the KLCI lower, and at the close, the KLCI loss 2.24 points to close at 1500.98 points. Immediate support for the KLCI is still at 1500 while the resistance is at 1525 followed by 1532 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 1.33%, and still below the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is relatively quiet, and this also implies that the market confidence is low. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to pick up more strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell slightly, but still above 70%, thus this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the on the positive side.

Despite the profit taking activities on Friday, the KLCI remains above the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate technical outlook is still positive.

HAPPY WEEKEND

ZLBT Derivative Charts >>> FKLI FCPO Soybean Oil

Please click on images to ENLARGE

FKLI Recommendations

BUY ON DIP / WEAKNESS

CRUDE palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives continued its rally marginally for the fourth consecutive day yesterday, as global concerns ease amid tightening supplies, dealers said. "Heavy rain from seasonal monsoon had disrupted production and low output conditions may last until January," a dealer said. He said prices are tracking gains across other commodity classes as well.December 2010 fell RM4 to RM3,566 a tonne, January 2011 gained RM7 to RM3,535, February 2011 rose RM14 to RM3,500 and March 2011 inched up RM2 to RM3,453.
Volume slipped to 20,223 lots from 20,240 previously while open interest fell to 79,484 contracts from 80,024 on Wednesday. On the physical market, December South perked RM5 to RM3,550.

FCPO Recommendations
BUY ON DIP / WEAKNESS
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SOYBEAN OIL (JAN) 12/03/2010: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 53.70. The next area of resistance is around 53.30 and 53.70, while 1st support hits today at 52.38 and below there at 51.87.
January Soybean Oil finished up 0.23 at 52.84, 0.35 off the high and 0.57 up from the low.

HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET >>> Dec Bulls Gore Nov Bears

DJIA Soars 106 Points as Bulls Maintain the Reins
The bulls on Wall Street continued their hot start to December by piling another 100 points onto the Dow on Thursday in response to the resurgent euro, an unexpected jump in pending home sales and impressive sales in November from retailers.

The bulls continued their stampede from the opening bell, completely shrugging off an unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims ahead of tomorrow's key nonfarm payrolls report. Instead, the market cheered a generally solid round of November sales reports from the retail sector, as well as a record-setting surge in pending home sales for October. Traders also took comfort in the latest news out of the debt-saddled euro zone, with Jean-Claude Trichet announcing that the European Central Bank will continue to provide liquidity to banks as needed through the first quarter of 2011. Against this upbeat backdrop, the major market indexes collected their second straight day of robust gains.

It might have seemed modest in comparison with Wednesday's 249-point spike, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,362.41) ended on a still-very-respectable advance of 106.6 points, or roughly 1%, as all but three of its 30 components closed higher. The Home Depot (HD) racked up the day's biggest gain, soaring 5.5%, while Kraft Foods (KFT) paced the laggards by giving up 0.5%. The Dow has rallied an impressive 2.4% this week, and notched its first daily close above 11,300 since Nov. 10.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,221.53) added 15.5 points, or 1.3%, extending its surge above former resistance at 1,200. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,579.35) jumped 29.9 points, or 1.2%, marking its first daily finish above previous support at 2,560 since Nov. 10.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES
Crude futures sailed to a fresh two-year peak today, rising in step with stocks as traders cheered a round of solid economic data. Black gold also caught a lift from softness in the U.S. dollar, which relinquished some ground to the euro following Trichet's comments. Crude oil for January delivery ended on a gain of $1.25, or 1.4%at $88 per barrel -- its best price since October 2008.

HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT's Morning Market Round-up

Higher Open Called For Malaysian Market

The Malaysian stock market has alternated between positive and negative finishes through the last four trading days, since the end of two-day winning streak in which it collected nearly 10 points or 0.7 percent. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just above the 1,485-point plateau, and now analysts are expecting to see the market extend its gains when it kicks off trade on Thursday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is broadly positive, thanks to bargain hunting and better than expected economic data out of the United States. Support is likely to be broadly based but featuring properties, steel stocks and oil companies in particular. The European and U.S. markets finished sharply higher, and the Asian markets are also expected to track to the upside.

The KLCI finished flat on Wednesday as gains from the plantation stocks were erased by selling among the financial shares and industrial issues.

For the day, the index added just 0.19 points or 0.01 percent to finish at 1,485.42 after trading between 1,477.57 and 1,487.67. Volume was 886.2 million shares worth 1.6 billion ringgit. There were 366 decliners and 364 gainers, with 296 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Petronas Daganan, Kulim, IOI Corporation, Maxis and MISC all finished higher, while K-Star and Sime Darby ended lower.

Dow Skyrockets 249 Points as Bulls Ring in December
The bulls brought in December with a bang today, as buying pressure flooded the market on the heels of a rather dreary November. Overseas data provided an early lift, with traders cheering robust economic reports from China and the euro zone. On the home front, payroll processor ADP helped stoke the merry mood by reporting that private-sector employers added 93,000 jobs last month. Meanwhile, in afternoon trading, the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book release confirmed that the economy continued to improve at a modest pace during October and November. In fact, even the Big Three automakers contributed to today's bull run -- General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Chrysler all reported double-digit percentage gains in their respective November sales reports.

"The bottom line is, the recent pullback simply worked off the overbought nature of the market," explained a senior analyst. "Sure, there were some scary reasons for the recent sell-off. But as the economic data continues to support a growing economy, the chances of a move back to new highs before the end of the year are very good."

By the time the dust settled, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,255.78) racked up an impressive gain of 249.8 points, or 2.3%, as all 30 of its components closed solidly higher. Retail titan Home Depot (HD) led the pack with a 4.6% gain. Thanks to today's breakout rally, the Dow closed above short-term resistance at 11,200 for the first time since Nov. 19, and toppled its 10-day and 20-day moving averages in the process. These short-term trendlines hadn't been surmounted on a daily closing basis since Nov. 10.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,206.07) followed suit by tacking on 25.5 points, or 2.2%. In the process, the SPX ended the day north of 1,200 for the first time since Nov. 11. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,549.43) rounded out the day's rally by rising 51.2 points, or 2.1%. Like the Dow, the SPX and COMP both ended the session comfortably north of their respective 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

Crude futures climbed in step with stocks today, as trader rediscovered their appetite for riskier assets. Upbeat manufacturing data from China helped boost black gold's appeal, as did ADP's rosy report on the U.S. jobs market. In fact, the buying mood was so contagious, traders completely overlooked an unexpected surge in domestic crude inventories. By the close, crude oil for January delivery was up $2.64, or 3.1%, to finish at $86.75 per barrel.

HAPPY TRADING

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年12月01日/FBMKLCI 01/12/2010

综合指数 2010年 12月 01日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度回弹，惟综指精确的在1487点的费氏线遇阻，这成为综指当前的阻力水平，综指按日至微扬0.19点，以1485.42点闭市。综指当前的支持水平落在1460点的费氏线，阻力水平则分别是1487点的费氏线以及1500点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减少至6%，所以综指避开进一步的转弱，惟综指目前仍然处于布林中频带以下，所以综指仍然属于弱势中，直到综指上扬突破布林中频带为止。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少12.75%，这使到成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，无论如何，这是综指目前处于横摆巩固走势的典型状态。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）并未跌破30%，这显示综指的短期走势也并未进入下跌的格局，接下来若随机指标继续回弹，那综指的短期走势将有望避开转弱下跌。无论如何，目前随机指标将显得较为敏感，这是因为综指横摆巩固所致。

综指目前已经处于布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以下，这显示综指有转弱的先兆，所幸的是布林频带目前并未明显打开，所以综指短期内必须迅速的回弹，综指才能避开进入跌势中。

FBM KLCI 01 December 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI attempt to rebound on Wednesday, but it is resisted by the 1487 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, which is the immediate resistance. At the close, the KLCI gained 0.19 of a point at 1485.42. Support for the KLCI is at 1460 and the resistance are found at 1487 followed by 1500.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 6%, and if the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, the KLCI would consolidate further, without forming a downtrend yet. However, immediate technical outlook shall remains on the negative side until the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 12.75%, with volume staying below the 40-day volume moving average. This shows that the market confidence is relatively low, and it is normal for the direction of the KLCI is unclear now.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is testing 30%, and since it has not fallen below 30%, it is not showing a short term bearish signal yet. Generally, if the Stochastic should stay around 50%, the KLCI is likely to move sideways for the short term.

With the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA, technical outlook for the KLCI is on the lower side. Fortunately, the downside movement of the KLCI was insignificant, thus the KLCI not yet forming a downtrend.

HAPPY TRADING