ZLBT Chats

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange >>> FBM KLCI Futures

FKLI Hanged 5.5 points
FBM KLCI Tanked 3.09 points
ZL's FKLI open positions 1509 average rounded
Intraday Target 1505 > 1503. Positional Target 1500 > 1491FKLI Recommendations
SELL INTO STRENGTH AT NEW / INTRADAY HIGH
HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT's Morning Pre-Markets Round-up

Malaysian Stocks Snapped 6 Days Winning Streak
Rebounds Muted After 1.3% Gains

The Malaysian stock market on Tuesday eased just a handful of points - but that was enough to end the six-day winning streak in which it had collected nearly 20 points or 1.3 percent. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just above the 1,505-point plateau, although now investors are looking for a modest rebound 9if any) when the market kicks off trade on Wednesday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is positive, thanks to optimism over the U.S. elections and the expected stimulus announcement on Wednesday from the FOMC. Oil stocks are seen providing major support on a weakening dollar, while the properties, steel companies and airlines also may rise. The European and U.S. markets finished higher, and now the Asian bourses are tipped to follow suit.

The KLCI finished slightly lower on Tuesday as both the financial and plantation sectors finished mixed.For the day, the index eased 3.09 points or 0.20 percent to finish at 1,506.57 after trading between 1,504.72 and 1,509.79. Volume was 1.20 billion shares valued at 1.61 billion ringgit. There were 463 decliners and 279 gainers.


Among the actives, Genting, Axiata, AMMB, Maybank and IOI Corporation all finished lower, while BAT and Hong Leong Bank ended higher.

The lead from Wall Street is optimistic as stocks saw notable gains on Tuesday with Americans taking to the polls to decide the outcome of the midterm elections. Optimism about prospective Republican gains contributed to the strength in the markets along with the day's dollar weakness, which came as Australia unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate.

The strength in the markets came as voters went to the polls, with most signs pointing to big gains for Republicans, who are seen as friendlier to business. A pullback by the U.S. dollar also gave way to a buying opportunity in stocks after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent. The bank concluded that the balance of risks had shifted to the point where an early, modest tightening of monetary policy was prudent, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement.

Other movement among stocks was guided by quarterly results as earnings season continues to wind down.Video-game publisher Electronic Arts said after the markets closed that its second quarter loss narrowed from last year, as lower costs and expenses offset a sharp drop in revenue. The Redwood City, California-based company reported a GAAP net loss for the second quarter of $201 million or $0.61 per share, compared to a GAAP net loss of $391 million or $1.21 per share for the year-ago quarter.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $0.54 per share, which beat estimates by 3 cents, while its revenues missed forecasts despite a 39 percent increase. The drug maker's 2010 earnings and revenue forecasts were largely in-line with expectations. Oil giant BP Plc (BP) reported a sharp decline in its third-quarter profit after it took a $7.7 billion pre-tax charge related to the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The major averages moved roughly sideways going into the close of trading, holding on to strong gains.

The Dow rose 64.10 points or 0.6 percent to 11,188.72 and the S&P 500 advanced 9.19 points or 0.8 percent to 1,193.57, with both setting six-month closing highs. The NASDAQ jumped 28.68 points or 1.1 percent to 2,533.52, its best closing level since June of 2008.

In economic news, Malaysia is on Wednesday scheduled to release September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to rise 16.3 percent on year following the 16.5 percent annual expansion in August. Exports are tipped to add an annual 10.1 percent after collecting 10.6 percent in the previous month. The trade balance is expected to show a surplus of $8.09 billion, down from $8.32 billion a month earlier.
HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET >>> Spotlight On Feds Announcement, Mid Term Elections

Stocks Settle at Six-Month Highs; Elections Theme
The NASDAQ notched its highest 2 years daily close
The market seems to have high hopes for the outcome of this week's key events, as stocks shot higher right out of the gate this morning. Traders are focusing on today's midterm elections -- which are generally expected to result in more than a few GOP victories -- as well as tomorrow's regularly scheduled decision on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). (And, lest anyone forget, Friday will bring us the Labor Department's monthly report on nonfarm payrolls.)

However, after an early bounce into the black, stocks spent the rest of the session hovering in a tight sideways pattern as traders tried to rein in their expectations. The one exception was the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite, which stubbornly extended its gains right into the final hour of the session. A minor wave of merger-and-acquisition news likely contributed to the COMP's outperformance, with tech titans Dell (DELL) and Oracle (ORCL) each announcing new buyout deals today.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,188.72) ended the day on a respectable gain of 64.10 points, or 0.58%, as 23 of its 30 components closed higher. Home Depot (HD) and American Express (AXP) earned the day's biggest blue chip gains, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Intel (INTC) paced the seven decliners. Today marks the Dow's highest daily finish since April 26, though the index continues to find pressure in the 11,250 region.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,193.57) followed suit by adding 9.19 points, or 0.78%, to notch its best daily close since May 3. However, the SPX is staring up at potential pressure in the 1,200 region, which is home to its 80-month moving average. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,533.52) tacked on 28.68 points, or 1.14%, to close at its highest price since June 5, 2008. However, the COMP fell just shy of challenging its current annual high of 2,535.30, which was set on April 2006.


FOMC Meeting Stifle The Greenback;
Black Gold Capitalizes
Crude futures settled at a six-month high today, as black gold capitalized on weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback took a drubbing ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement, which made the dollar-denominated commodity that much more attractive to investors holding foreign currencies.

Additionally, oil traders seemed encouraged after a few members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voiced their support for prices in the $70 to $90 range. By the close, crude oil for December delivery added 95 cents, or 1.2%, to finish at $83.90 per barrel -- its best price since May 3.
HAPPY TRADING

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月02日/FBM KLCI 02/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 02日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数下滑3.09点,以1506.57点闭市,综指基本上呈调整巩固的格局,所以阻力水平依然保持在1525点的费氏线,支持水平亦维持在1500点的心理支持水平。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄9%,这显示综指上扬的趋势遇阻,开始出现调整,一般上布林中频带将成为综指当前调整的第一个目标,布林中频带也同时是综指的动态支持线,所以综指有望在此获得扶持。

图中箭头B所示,马股的交易量进一步减少5.6%,惟成交量仍然成功的保持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这显示马股整体的交投活跃,这是市场仍然有一定承接力量的表现。接下来若成交量能继续保持在40天平均值以上,综指将有望在获得足够扶持下继续保持转强的格局。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)缓缓下滑,不过随机指标目前仍然处于70%以上,这表示综指的短期走势开始出现调整的格局,惟只要随机指标能继续保持在70%以上,综指的短期走势仍然是属于短期强势中,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,由于布林频带开始收窄,所以综指出现了调整巩固的走势。无论如何,由于成交量并未跌破40天的平均值,综指也保持在14、21、31天的加权移动平均线(EMA)以上,再加上随机指标目前高于70%的水平,所以综指短期的走势仍然属于偏强的格局中,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

FBM KLCI 02 Nov 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell 3.09 points to close at 1506.57 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1525 while the support is at 1500. As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 9%, suggesting that the KLCI is not picking up strength as its volatility is still low. Nevertheless, provided that the KLCI could stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, immediate technical outlook shall remain positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.6%, but volume stays above the 40-day volume moving average. This indicates that the overall market is still well-participated, thus the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated gradually, but still staying above 70%, in the short term bullish region. Therefore, the Stochastic is still suggesting a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.


In short, the KLCI is taking a pause before testing the 1525 all time high resistance. Generally, technical reading of the KLCI chart is still positive, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term dynamic support still intact, the uptrend of the KLCI is well in place.

HAPPY TRADING

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange >>> Crude Palm Oil Futures

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up +RM31
Fresh 27-Month High On Dollar, Soyoil

ZL's CPO open positions 3074.666 average LONG
Intraday Target 3133 / 3150 >>> Positional Target 3188 / 3250


CPO Dealers Quote
"The late rally in CPO futures may entice the bulls to push prices to the MYR3,100-MYR3,110/ton range tomorrow. But the rally may be temporary as prices have gone up too quickly," said a trading executive at Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage.


CPO Recommendations
BUY ON DIP / WEAKNESS
HAPPY TRADING