TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 05/12/01/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 01月 05日

Composite Index 05/01/2010
As lead by the over-night gain from the US market, the KLCI rose to its daily high of 1290.55 points on Tuesday, but closed at 1288.24 points, upped 12.49 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is still resisted by the 1288 Fibonacci Retracement, while the support is still at 1257 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 37%, while the KLCI is still staying above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the Bollinger Bands is now suggesting a bullish signal for the KLCI. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside room is likely for the KLCI, and the next resistance for the KLCI is seen at 1300 psychological level.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 64.9%, with volume clearly above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is quite active as investors are taking part. In other words, the inflow of fresh capital has increased thus it helps to sustain the KLCI rally.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still staying above 70% level, which is the short term bullish signal. Therefore, provided that the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be bullish biased.

In conclusion, the KLCI is set to rally with the current conditions. Provided that the Bollinger Bands is still expanding, and the KLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band, and also volume staying above the 40-day VMA level.

综合指数 2010年 01月 05日
富时综合指数在道指上扬的带领下走高，综指全日一度上扬至1290.55点，随后综指在套利下稍微回软，综指按日上扬12.49点，以1288.24点闭市。如图中箭头A所示，综指精确的在1288点的费氏线遇阻，这是综指当前的阻力水平，综指的支持水平则落在1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）明显的打开37%，而综指又能维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指开始上扬，并且上探1288点的阻力水平，接下来只要布林频带继续的打开，那综指将有望突破1288点的阻力而上探1300点的心理阻力水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量暴升64.9%，所以市场的成交量远远的高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者回笼，市场在增加交投量下，承接力量也同时的增加了，这对综指后市继续转强将有正面的作用。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）仍然维持在70%以上，所以综指的短期走势亦维持在一个上扬的格局，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指酝酿已久的涨势终于出现了，以技术而言，只要布林频带继续的打开，而综指又能维持在布林中频带以上，再加上成交量成功守住40天平均值以上的情形下，综指将有望继续的上扬，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

BURSA MALAYSIA Hits New Year RM1.1 Trillion Market Cap Mark

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FBM KLCI Rousing 2010 Welcome With 19 Months High

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia closed broadly higher on Tuesday with the market capitalisation of listed companies hitting the RM1 trillion mark.

The all-time high market value of Bursa Malaysia of RM1.1 trillion was recorded during the early part of 2007 before the global financial crisis in the second half of 2007.Buying support by foreign and local funds pushed the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) to touch an intraday high of 1,290.55 before closing 12.49 points or 0.98 per cent higher at 1,288.24, the highest since July last year.

On July 6 last year, the KLCI was renamed FBMKLCI to reflect its global relevance and reach.It had opened 2.51 points higher at 1,278.26 today. Advancers led decliners by 658 to 184 while 180 counters were unchanged and 281 others untraded.
In brisk trading, volume increased to 1.864 billion shares worth RM1.984 billion compared with 1.130 billion shares worth RM990.954 million on Monday.
The Finance Index rose 80.41 points to 11,139.63, the Plantation Index surged 128.22 points to 6,505.08 and the Industrial Index added 16.22 points to 2,681.86.

The FBMEmas Index jumped 96.76 points to 8,658.19, the FBMTop 100 Index increased 89.63 points to 8,435.76, the FBM70 Index surged 121.10 points to 8,498.45 and the FBMACE advanced 117.16 points to 4,474.77.

Your Chinese New Year Angpow Is On The Way

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

BURSA MALAYSIA Derivative Markets >>> FKLI And FCPO 04 Jan 2010

KLCI Futures contracts ended higher and at premiums

The KLCI Futures contracts ended higher Monday, turning the last Thursday's discounts to premiums ranging from 4.2 to 7.7 points to the underlying.

The January 2010 contract closed 13.0 points higher to at 1,282.0 points, reversing its discount of 3.78 points last Thursday to a premium of 6.25 points.

The contract opened 6.5 points higher at 1,275.5 points and traded between 1,274.0 and 1,284.5 points during the day.

The February 2010 contract closed at 1,283.5 points on the first day of trading, representing a premium of 7.75 points. It opened at 1,275.5 points and traded between 1,274.5 and 1,284.5 points during the day.

The March 2010 contract closed 11.0 points higher at 1,280.5 points, which is a premium of 4.75 points to the underlying, while the June 2010 contract rose 9.5 points to 1,280.0 points, representing a premium of 4.25 points to the underlying.

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Higher Soyoil, Crude Oil

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Monday, tracking soyoil and crude oil futures in Asian trade, participants said.

Gains were capped due to concerns that end-December stocks would be higher than expected and that demand will taper off in coming months.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR17 higher at MYR2,680 a metric ton, after trading in between MYR2,665 and MYR2,698/ton.

At 1000 GMT, light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.65 higher at $81.01 a barrel.

January soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 40 points higher at 40.75 cents a pound in electronic trading by the end of trade on the BMD.

"There is quite a bit of positive buying sentiment after last week's rally in CPO prices. But weak local fundamentals are starting to bite at buyers' heels," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

He said some market players have been rushing to move Indonesian palm oil products into Malaysia before higher Indonesian export taxes imposed on those products take effect in January, which would boost December's end-month stocks.

Also, some traders said market participants are worried about waning demand, as shown by December's. "These are just fuzzy concerns at the moment, as traders are still working out data and numbers on what the situation would be this month," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

The market expects a clearer picture to emerge by Jan. 10, when the Malaysian Palm Oil Board releases December export, stock and output data for December and cargo surveyors issue estimates for Jan. 1-10 exports.

"Until then, external cues, such as soyoil and crude oil, will play major roles in determining the direction of CPO prices," a Singapore-based trader said.

In the cash market, palm olein for January was traded at $810/ton, while April/May/June traded at $825/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trader said.
Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 higher at MYR2,630/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 76,366 lots, down from 76,748 lots traded Thursday, before the New Year holiday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 7,587 lots of CPO were traded versus 21,892 lots traded Thursday.

Market Moving Charts (with short commentaries) 31 Dec 2009

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MIDF >>> FBM KLCI More Upside Next Week; Year End Target 1450

The market, which closed for three consecutive Fridays starting December 17 last year for public holidays, had restrained some of these investors from taking heavy positions over long weekends. The Malaysian bourse was also closed for the New Year weekend celebrations

FBM KLCI gains 45.2pc year-on-year

Bursa Malaysia was generally sideways on bargain-hunting interest offsetting profit-taking selling, with the bellwether FBM KLCI ending the week marginally firmer. It finished the last day of this year at 1,272.78, against 876.75 on Dec 31, 2008. Year-on-year, the key index surged a massive 396.03 points, or 45.2%.

On a Thursday-to-Thursday basis, the FBM KLCI climbed 8.84 points, or 0.7% to 1,272.78, versus 1,263.94 on Dec 24.

On the foreign front, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to stay above its major psychological support of 10,000 points.

The Dow closed down - 120.46 (-1.14%) points at 10,428.05 on Thursday, giving a four-day loss of 92.05 points, or 0.87 per cent.

The immediate upside objective will be to re-test the recent peak of 1,288.42, If buying is sustainable, it may even challenge the heavy barrier of 1,300-1,305 points, of which a successful clearance would signal the beginning of the traditional Lunar New Year rally. The next upper hurdle is envisaged at 1,332 points.
Initial support is seen at 1,255 points, followed by the 1,248 points line. Crucial floor is pegged at the 100-day simple moving average, resting at 1,232 points.

Crude oil prices rose to a five-week high over US$79 a barrel on signs of global economic recovery and US stocks edged higher overnight, lifted by robust US retail sales during the key holiday shopping season, trading at home turned volatile the following day, tracking the indecisive market movements in the Asia-Pacific region.

March Soybean Oil closed up 86 pts. at 40.78.
March soybean oil gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 41.74 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 38.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 40.96. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 41.74. First support is today's gap crossing at 39.95. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.28.

WISHING ALL TRADERS

A WEALTHY & HEALTHY 2010

HAPPY NEW YEAR

BURSA MALAYSIA Derivative Markets >>> FKLI And FCPO 31 Dec 2009

Futures Contracts Closes Mixed On Last Day Year 2009
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed mixed on the last day of the year in line with a firmer cash market, dealers said.

At the close, December 2009 contract declined 3.5 points to 1,266.5 but Jan 2010 and June 2010 rose two points each to 1,269 and 1,270.5 respectively.

March 2010 added half-a-point to 1,269.5.

Turnover decreased sharply to 5,786 lots from 9,366 lots yesterday while open interest rose to 23,999 contracts from 22,010 contracts previously.

The underlying FBM KLCI closed 1.66 points higher at 1,272.78.

Crude Palm Oil At 7-Month High On Short-Covering, Demand Outlook
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Thursday as investors covered shorts in anticipation of growing demand in 2010 from China and India, the world’s top two vegetable oil consumers.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR68 or 2.6% higher at MYR2,663 a metric ton after rising to MYR2,666, a level not seen since May 19. Palm oil has surged 56% this year as a drought in Argentina damaged its soybean crop, leading to supply tightness in soyoil, a substitute for palm oil.

Prices came off highs in both sessions as cargo surveyors estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports in December fell 15%-18% on month to 1.19 million to 1.21 million tons. But the "rally in commodities (crude, soyoil) and a bullish demand outlook in 2010" kept CPO prices above MYR2,600, said a Malaysia-based exporter.

India and China's appetite for palm oil may continue to increase as per capita consumption of vegetable oils in both nations will rapidly rise in 2010 because economies are on the mend, London-based vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry said earlier this month.

In anticipation of rising demand, Mistry also said CPO prices may rise to MYR2,800-MYR3,000 by March next year.

He said Malaysia's palm oil production is likely to fall next year from this year's level of 17.5 million tons due to a replanting program.
Trade on the BMD was also supported by Friday's launch of the world's third largest free-trade area between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as this is expected to boost commodity exports between Asean countries and resource-hungry China.

Under the free trade agreement signed in 2002, China, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei will have to reduce tariffs of most goods to zero percent. Most of the goods that will become tariff-free in January are currently subject to import taxes of around 5%.

In the cash market, cash palm olein for January was traded at $775/ton and $772.50/ton, while April/May/June traded at $805/ton and $807.50/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trader.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR60 higher at MYR2,600/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 76,748 lots, down from 79,032 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 21,892 lots of CPO were traded versus 6,414 lots traded Wednesday.

WISHING ALL TRADERS

A HEALTHY WEALTHY & PROSPEROUS 2010

HAPPY NEW YEAR